A Debt Level Great Enough To Threaten The Dollar Rating:

http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/A_Debt_Level_Great_Enough_To_Threaten_The_Dollar_Rating

by Bob Chapman
Posted: April 7 2010

Your purchasing power is less and less with every passing day, changes coming to currencies, no end to corruption in government, Wall Street, and banking, US states on the verge of bankruptcy, economic and financial zombies on the old continent, globalization has brought us to the brink of collapse, Interest rate volatility to come soon, US debt far over GDP, property abandoned.

Almost every day in almost any currency your purchasing power in terms of gold is less and less. Thus, these currencies in which you save the fruits of your labor are cheating you out of your savings.

The US dollar is particularly vulnerable because of its staggering debt even though it is the world reserve currency. In fact the debt is so onerous that we believe the quality rating of the dollar could be lowered by the end of the year. Many other currencies face the same dilemma and in the final analysis only gold will be worth what it is today or in the future.

Unless the US government expropriates Americans’ retirement plans they won’t be able to fund their sovereign debt. This situation is exacerbated by continued fiscal deficits of some $1.8 trillion. The administration and the Democratic Party are bound and determined to destroy America financially. Between government, Wall Street and banking America is being destroyed. This did not just happen that way; it was planned that way. When people discover what has been done to them there will probably be a revolution.

Government spends excessively, as free trade and globalization keeps America under a staggering load of unemployment in what has become a corporatist fascist nation controlled by Wall Street and banking and run by Marxists, who for years have operated in the shadows as bureaucrats.

Many American states are on the edge of bankruptcy. Their only hope is massive layoffs and reduced services adding to the already massive unemployment that plagues our nation. The situation is close presently to resembling the 1930s and that is after trillions of dollars created out of thin air permeated the economy. Worse yet, nothing has been done deliberately to solve the problems. One might think the antics of government; banking and Wall Street were deliberate-unfortunately they are. It won’t be long before everything will be nationalized and corporatist fascism will be in full flower.

Corruption in government, Wall Street and banking knows no end. This in addition to the looting of funds for Social Security and Medicare, that the Treasury now must fund, when they cannot even fund current debt without having the Fed buy it with money created out of thin air. Talk about inflation – it is surely on the way. If we use GAAP accounting, not the US government’s cash figures, the deficit is really in the vicinity of $4.5 to $5 trillion, not $1.8 trillion. This, of course, is nothing new and the same lying and secrecy is in force worldwide. All that people have saved worldwide has been stolen from them - they just do not know it yet.

The situation in Europe is so bad that all of Europe is attacking Germany because they save and do not spend enough and their balance of payments surplus is obscene to other spenders not only in the euro zone, but in the entire EU as well. Their thought is Germany should be losers like we are. Then there are the PIIGS who care about little or nothing. We know we lived for years in all of these countries and fully understand where they are coming from. They all wanted socialism and it has doomed them, as has the euro zone and the European Union. They are about to discover socialism and debt are about to destroy them. You have made yourselves into economic and financial zombies. There is no one left to bail you out. Subsidizing everything doesn’t work as they are soon to find out. When Europe and America fail unfortunately they are going to in part take the entire world down with them – no one is going to be spared.

We have an economy in a state of collapse and part of the reason for that is free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing, which since 2000 has cost America some 8 million good quality jobs. Where are you Smoot-Hawley now that we need you? There are many reasons why the American economy is collapsing and free trade, British mercantilism, is one of them.

As we have said for months there is a multilateral change coming in currencies. A massive devaluation of all currencies and a debt settlement between countries. When that happens consumers worldwide will lose 2/3’s of their purchasing power on the final leg down into deflationary depression, which is probably 1-1/2 to 2 years away. Your only protection against such events is holding gold and silver related assets.

Those who have opted for general stock investments since 1998 have come out even if they were lucky and that includes massive market manipulation by our government. Not just failed policies. The creation in August 1988 of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets” has been a disaster for free markets and a gift to dictators and would be tyrants. The markets are a giant scam and their underpinnings are about to collapse. There has been little or no growth over those years. Real estate bubbles in residential and commercial markets have collapsed and the stock market will soon follow. Hitting you right in the forehead is almost a 4% yield on 10-year T-notes that could well become 5% by yearend, which we predicted late last year. That will put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6-1/4% to 6-1/2%. What do you think that will do to real estate, markets and profits? This is mainly because of sovereign debt that grows exponentially every minute of every day. These pyromaniacs in the White House and Congress add to the conflagration all day every day. The result has been a 25% loss in the S&P since March of 2000, and a loss versus gold of 75%. Gold has risen from $252 to $1,224 and silver from $3.50 to $20.00 with massive government and Fed suppression. Where do you think your money should have been and where your money should be? In gold and silver bullion, coins and shares. Yes, as usual we were crazy and we were right and we are going to continue to be right, because we understand what the Illuminists are up too.

You live in a bankrupt country, along with 18 other major bankrupts, and you will soon learn how you are going to lose everything you have worked a lifetime for. A rise in interest rates of 5% adds $620 billion annually to the US debt in interest alone and that is rising exponentially. The US, nor any government, can survive such debt service.

We are calling inflation, real inflation, not the official variety of 3%, but at 8%. John Williams says on the things you buy every day it is 10%. We should easily see 14-5/8% inflation by the end of the year just as we did 2-1/2 years ago.

The Fed has ended its $1.25 trillion program of buying toxic debt from lenders. We do not know if that is the correct figure, we do not know from whom they were purchased and we do not know what was paid for the MBS, because it is a secret. This purchase has put downward pressure on interest rates for the past 15 months. This is an abnormal procedure and it can be expected that interest rates would move higher. It also means that the fed will now be a seller in the market as the FDIC is attempting to be. If sold these securities will put downward pressure on these bonds and force higher rates in a market that is already subject to crowding out by the treasury. In addition, quantitative easing is being phased out, putting further upward pressure on rates. The Fed if it continues these policies may stem hyperinflation but they run the distinct risk of having deflation run out of control, which could easily drive the economy into deflationary depression. This is a super human feat we do not see being accomplished without major damage, at the least.

Rate volatility is going to increase dramatically, as the Fed works to hold the 10-year T-bill rate below 4%. This is what they did previously at great cost to savers and taxpayers.

As rates climb the dollar carry trade becomes much less attractive and as it is unwound borrowed money is pulled from other investments, such as bonds putting more upward pressure on rates and at the same time downward pressure on stocks, which have been purchased with borrowed money. If the Fed tightens, as they might on Wednesday, yields will move even higher. If that happens those in the carry trade and bonds and shares will see gains evaporate and sales of both bonds and stock will ensue, as the carry trade is unwound. This is what markets are now facing.

This takes us to municipal bonds and particularly California, which has $85 billion in debt, that has to be paid by its citizens, of which about 40% do not pay any taxes. In addition it officially has 12.4% unemployment, which is really about 25% and getting worse daily. This is a state with $1 trillion to $3.5 trillion in unfunded pensions and the world’s 8th largest economy. This is a state that, via federal subsidy, sold “Build America Bonds”, bonds yielding 6.3%, or 2.4%, higher rates than Treasuries. California is on the edge of bankruptcy and their municipal bonds should be sold, as many from other states should be sold as well. States won’t work out of their problems for years.

Last week the Dow rose 0.7%; S&P 1%, the Russell 2000 0.7% and the Nasdaq was unchanged. Banks rose 0.3%; broker/dealers 0.8%; cyclicals 0.8%; transports 1.2%; consumers 1.2%, as utilities fell 1.8%. High tech fell 0.3% as semis gained 1.1% and Internets fell 0.2%. Biotechs fell 0.2%; gold gained $12.00; the HUI rose 6.2% and the USDX fell 0.6% to 81.17.

Two-year Treasury bills rose 6 bps to 1.02%; the 10-year T-notes rose 10 bps to 3.95% and the 10-year German bund fell 7 bps to 3.08%.

The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose 9 bps to 5.08%; the 15’s rose 5 bps to 4.39%; one-year ARMs fell 15 bps to 4.05% and jumbos rose 1 bps to 5.83%.

Fed credit declined $7.4 billion. Fed foreign holdings of Treasury, Agency debt rose $7.2 billion to a record of $3.020 trillion. Custody holdings for foreign central banks increased $64.5 billion just year-to-date, and year-on-year 15.7%.

M2 narrow money supply fell $10 billion.

Total money market fund assets fell $30 billion to $2.983 trillion, the first time below $3 trillion since 10/07. Year-to-date it is off $311 billion and year-on-year it is off 22.2%.

Commercial paper fell $5.2 billion, or 20.8% ytd and 24.9% yoy.

America’s debt is now $31 trillion, or 2-1/2 times US GDP. Americans on average only own 11% of their home the remainder is debt. Home prices are headed lower until 2013, so 20% lower prices are a certainty. In some areas homes have already fallen 60% to 75%. This situation will feed on itself for years and bankruptcies and inventory for sale will flourish for years. About 45% of homes have mortgages. We wrote five years ago that the government wants to own and nationalize those homes, so they can control the public.

As we wrote earlier we expect another large stimulus plan soon and the Fed to reverse gears and flood the world with money sometime soon. This should be the last rescue and the result will be hyperinflation followed by collapse and a deflationary depression. This is the last chance to buy gold and silver inexpensively.

If you do not think there was inflation in 2007 and 2008 homeowners insurance rose 24%, in 2008 it rose 31% and again in 2009-10 it rose 31%.

Treasury debt is on the ropes and is about to cause the Illuminists real trouble, along with higher interest rates. Later this year or early next year debt as a percentage will reach 95%. From there on its collapse. How can anyone conceive deficits of more than $10 trillion over the next ten years?

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index release by the Institute for Supply Management rose in March to 55.4 from 53.0. The index reached the highest level since November of 2007.

The increase to 55.4 was above market expectations of an increase to 53.3. The data shows that the economic activity in the US continues to improve.

More Americans unexpectedly signed contracts in February to buy previously owned homes, signaling government efforts to support the market will start pay off.

The index of purchase agreements, or pending home sales, rose 8.2 percent, the second-biggest gain on record and the largest since October 2001, after a revised 7.8 percent drop in January, the National Association of Realtors announced today in Washington.

Hedge funds that aim to profit from macroeconomic upheavals have had a lacklustre start to 2010, in spite of some of the biggest international monetary crises in more than a decade.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8e7ab2e-400f-11df-8d23-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss - The Greek debt crisis and steep falls in value for both the euro and sterling have failed to translate into noticeable gains for most macro managers, many of whom predicted a stellar year on the back of huge global economic rebalancing.

So-called global macro hedge funds, which specialise in bets on interest rates, sovereign bonds and currencies, have on average lost 1.25 per cent on investments so far this year, according to industry data compiled by Hedge Fund Research, a Chicago-based index compiler.

Many of the hedge fund industry’s biggest names have so far failed to turn market crises to their advantage often in spite of fervent political criticism linking them to damaging market “speculation”.

The 5-foot alligator lurking in the algae-green waters of the community swimming pool was not the worst thing code-enforcement officers have found in recent years at AAA Apartments in Cocoa.

Bathrooms infested with mold. Walls with gaping holes where air conditioners had been ripped out. Garbage and trash strewn about the 52-unit complex. The city began issuing code-violation fines in 2007, back at the beginning of the housing slump, and the apartments' co-owners soon owed the city $1.8 million more than three times the current list price of the property, and enough money to motivate the now-former co-owners to try bribing a code-enforcement officer.

AAA Apartments, now bank-owned, may be an example of things to come. As home foreclosures continue to mount throughout Central Florida, code-enforcement officers say apartments, condominiums and other commercial buildings are being abandoned by their owners and repossessed by banks in growing numbers.

A surprise Fed announcement eclipsed the disappointing March Employment Report on Friday. Yes, it is a disappointment despite the media and permabull spin, because the Street expected March NFP to exceed 200k. One forecast had the job gain at 400k. But only 48k temporary Census workers were recorded. So only 162k NFP were reported.

Birth Death Model jobs are 81k, even though ADP, who actually does a count, showed small business lost 112k jobs. Professional services gained 11,000 jobs, but 40,000 were part-time jobs.

Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks.

Traders quickly surmised that if the Fed is going to allow public access to an emergency meeting to discuss a possible discount rate hike, the probability is very high that a discount rate will occur soon.

The probable reason for the public airing is to disabuse the notion that the Fed’s secrecy keeps the public in the dark about its operations while it tips coming policy to insiders who profit on the inside info.

Most of the financial media ignored the Fed notice and reported the dollar surged because the jobs report indicated the economy had turned the corner. How is this possible when the number of jobs were below the consensus forecast?

Other financial media types spun the disappointing NFP as good news because it means the Fed cannot hike rates. But the dollar rally contradicts this notion…If anything, SPMs jumped on asset allocation, which will be a temporary boost for stocks. Perhaps the past months’ upward revisions were a factor.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from -26,000 to +14,000, and the change for February was revised from -36,000 to -14,000.

Once again we see chicanery in the March Employment because the Household Survey shows a gain of 264k jobs but ‘Men 20 years & over’ accounted for a 290k job gain. ‘Women 20 years & over’ LOST 42k jobs. This is absurd.

You might recall that we noted that the January Employment Report recorded a 541k jobs increase in the Household Survey due to an increase of 529k of jobs for ‘Women 20 years & over’, while ‘Men 20 years & over’ LOST 1k jobs. This is impossible!

Now we see the opposite scheme ‘Men 20 years & over’ gained 290k jobs; women lost 42k jobs.

The Household Survey shows an increase of 308,000 jobs, but the BLS did not report this in the preamble to the report. Most of the gain is due to 233,000 gain in ‘Men 20 years and older’. ‘Men 16 year and older’ account for 297,000 of the 308,000 jobs gain in the Household Survey! For February, ‘Women 20 years of age and older’ increased only 11,000.

Wages fell 0.1% (+0.2% expected), a record for the data series; but it only goes back to 2006. Wages should increase before employment increases due to the high cost of benefits.

U6, comprehensive unemployment, increase 0.1 to 16.9% in March. ‘Unemployed for 27 weeks or more’ hit a record 44.1%. Per Alan Abelson, the odds of finding a job sank to 18.7% from Feb’s 20.1%. The Exhaust Rate (people that have exhausted unemployment benefits) hit 54.01% for February.

Gallup Daily tracking finds that 20.3% of the U.S. workforce was underemployed in March. [The 149,268 consumer bankruptcies filed in March represented the highest monthly consumer filing total since Congress overhauled the Bankruptcy Code in 2005.]

For the week ended Wednesday, the Fed’s balance contracted $5.992B due to the sale of $5.103B of MBS. The Fed monetized $1.5B of agencies.

US banks earned $2.5bn last year from an accounting rule that enables them to book gains – known as “Christmas capital” by buying assets at a discount, a new study shows. More than half of all acquisitions of failed banks last year resulted in such gains, according to SNL Financial, which compiled the data.

Regulators Shut Down South Carolina Bank; Makes 42 US Bank Failures This Year

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Regulators-shut-South-apf-1589099445.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer, On Friday April 9, 2010, 5:41 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Regulators on Friday shut down a bank in South Carolina, marking 42 bank failures in the U.S. so far this year amid mounting loan defaults, especially in commercial real estate.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over Beach First National Bank, based in Myrtle Beach, S.C., with $585.1 million in assets and $516 million in deposits. Bank of North Carolina, based in Thomasville, N.C., agreed to assume the assets and deposits of the failed bank.

In addition, the FDIC and Bank of North Carolina agreed to share losses on $497.9 million of Beach First National Bank's loans and other assets.

The failure of Beach First is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund $130.3 million.

There were 140 bank failures in the U.S. last year, the highest annual tally since 1992 at the height of the savings and loan crisis. They cost the insurance fund more than $30 billion. Twenty-five banks failed in 2008 and only three succumbed in 2007.

The number of bank failures likely will peak this year and will be slightly higher than in 2009, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said recently.

As losses have mounted on loans made for commercial property and development, the growing bank failures have sapped billions of dollars out of the deposit insurance fund. It fell into the red last year, hitting a $20.9 billion deficit as of Dec. 31.

The number of banks on the FDIC's confidential "problem" list jumped to 702 in the fourth quarter from 552 three months earlier, even as the industry squeezed out a small profit. Still, nearly one in every three banks reported a net loss for the latest quarter.

The FDIC expects the cost of resolving failed banks to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years.

The agency mandated last year that banks prepay about $45 billion in premiums, for 2010 through 2012, to replenish the insurance fund.

Depositors' money -- insured up to $250,000 per account -- is not at risk, with the FDIC backed by the government. Apart from the fund, the FDIC has about $66 billion in cash and securities available in reserve to cover losses at failed banks.

CIGX - Did Star Scientific Just Find a Cure for Alzheimer's Disease?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/197650-did-star-scientific-just-find-a-cure-for-alzheimer-s-disease

By James Altucher
April 8, 2010

Fundamental Analysis page for CIGX:

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=cigx

Company website:

http://www.starscientific.com/

Daily chart:



A few weeks ago I wrote about CIGX (Nasdaq) when it was trading around $1.60. Currently it's at $2.50, having gone as high as $3.67 Tuesday on the news that the Roskamp Institute, the premier institute for the study of Alzheimer's Disease, had found evidence that the Star Scientific (CIGX) product breaks down the beta-amyloid plaque that causes Alzheimer's. I've written in the past about Alzheimer's for the WSJ and for thestreet.com and to my knowledge no product out there breaks down this plaque. For the reasons below, I think this new news could ultimately drive the stock to the $15-20 range.

In my earlier article I mentioned the Roskamp Institute because I was trying to connect the dots as to why Robert Roskamp, the guy who finances the institute, would buy $1mm worth of CIGX stock. The dot-connecting paid off for readers and proved accurate as Tuesday the institute came out with a press release that announced the institute is exploring a cure for Alzherimer's with a component developed by Star Scientific (CIGX) .

Why is this institute important? Michael Mullan, the chief scientist for the institute is the guy who made the discovery that the beta-amyloid chemical is what causes the plaque to build up in the brain, causing Alzheimers.

Most drugs that have gone through FDA trials since then for Alzheimer's have revolved around different techniques for bringing down this plaque. None of the trials have succeeded but clearly the search for a cure, even prior to an FDA approval, is sufficient enough to drive billions of dollars in value:

Examples:

Medivation (MDVN) - The company was trading at a $1.5 billion dollar market cap and lost over a billion dollars in valuation when the FDA put a stop to their trials.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - JNJ pushed back results until 2012 for an Alzheimer's trial they were doing for Elan (ELN). $5bb in market value was lost in a day.

Pfizer (PFE) - Wyeth: In a Barrons article from 2008, the writer states that Wyeth (now bought by Pfizer) could go up in value about 20% (about $10bb in value at the time) if their Alzheimer's vaccine came to market. Their initial attempt at a drug failed in 2002.

As I wrote in my worst selling book, The Forever Portfolio (which, by the way, the publisher now informs me will be coming out in paperback shortly), Alzheimer's is the third largest killer in the United States, behind heart disease and all cancers combined. If you live long enough, you will get Alzheimer's.

So what do we know now?

From the press release:

Preliminary tests performed by the Roskamp Institute show that when the compound developed by [CIGX] is applied to cells, B-amyloid is reduced. Also, the compound appears to encourage new neuronal cell growth.

This is why I believe the stock initially jumped 20% higher within seconds of the release coming out. When comparing this to companies that have drugs in FDA trials (but no success yet) those companies usually have a market cap in the billions even if its unknown whether or not the drug will actually work. CIGX's market cap is about $250mm.

The release goes on to say:

Results in cells do not necessarily translate to human testing, and additional work needs to be completed to determine whether the compound will have significant B-amyloid lowering effects in humans.

I think this was the critical line that got short-term traders to sell. As one fund manager IMed me, "It could take 5-7 years to put together and FDA approved clinical trial on humans and a hundred million dollars or more."

However, there's a critical difference between CIGX and the companies that need FDA approval for their drugs. CIGX's product is approved already to be sold as a nutraceutical. All that means is that the FDA has deteremined it's safe on humans and it's made in a safe environment. More on this in a second.

CIGX also put out an 8k filing Tuesday at 11:02am discussing their partnership with Inventiv (VTIV). None of the articles on CIGX mentioned this 8k filing. Inventiv markets drugs, vitamins and nutraceuticals to doctors, supermarkets, pharmacies, etc. The 8k states:

[Inventiv]...will provide sales and marketing services to the Company relating to CigRx™. CigRx™ is a non-nicotine nutraceutical that is intended to temporarily reduce the desire to smoke.

Presumably this is the same compound that Roskamp is testing. In CIGX's profile they state they:
have a botanical, tobacco-based component designed to treat tobacco dependence and a range of neurological conditions, including Alzheimer’'s disease, Parkinson’'s disease, schizophrenia, and depression.

In other words, this is NOT a drug. Its a nutraceutical. So it can be easily tested in humans. Roskamp can give it to humans today. And, since a sales and marketing agreement has already been signed with one of the largest distributors out there there this product can be in the market in 2-3 months. Will it have "CURES ALZHEIMER's DISEASE!!" written all over it? No, of course not. But bottles of wine do not have "may cure heart disease" written on them either but people often swear by a glass of wine for this reason (and, of course, a few other reasons). Diitto for aspirin which generically sells billions of bottles a year for uses not specified on its container.

I'm also curious about this line in the Roskamp press release:

the compound is being explored further for its application to treat a variety of neurological conditions, including Alzheimer's.

What other neurological conditions are they testing? Two weeks ago an article came out in the Wall Street Journal suggesting that smokers often delay the onset of Parkinson's disease. Here's a similar article in Reuters. In this list of clinical trials that the Roskamp Institute participates in, Parkinson's is listed.

So what do we have? A company that could potentially test on humans and have a nutraceutical out in 3-12 months that is already deemed safe by the FDA and a third party clinic is already seeing independent validation that an off-label use might be to prevent or reduce the risk of Alzheimer's disease.

Again, MDVN lost $1bb in value in a day when they lost the ability to claim they have a product that cures Alzheimer's. JNJ lost $5bb in value. The size of the overall Alzheimer's market is estimated at over $15bb a year.

Tuesday saw a classic "sell the news" reaction on the stock. The Roskamp Institute basically upped their commitment to the idea that there might be a cure here. Not only have they invested in the company, but the premier researcher on Alzheimer's on the planet suggests that this might be the cure in their press release. Additionally, the 8K filing that came out late morning Tuesday affirms the sales and marketing relationship with Inventiv for the CigRx product, which I assume is the "botanical, tobacco-based component designed to treat ..." listed in CIGX's profile on Yahoo Finance.

This stock reminds me a little of Dendreon (DNDN). The company still does not have a product out to treat prostate cancer (waiting for all approvals) but investors never knew how to react to their news. The stock went from $4 to $20 back to $2.50, and is now up to $40. If the Alzheimer's market is truly a $15bb a year market and this company will have a product out there even distantly related to that market and will have a product out there before any other Pharma has a product, then we can easily see a $15-20 stock at some point.

Consumer Credit in U.S. Decreased $11.5 Billion in February:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anX2s9HUAFjg&pos=1

By Vincent Del Giudice

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer credit in the U.S. declined in February more than anticipated, indicating Americans are reluctant to take on more debt without further improvement in the labor market.

Borrowing fell $11.5 billion, the most in three months, after a revised $10.6 billion January gain that was twice as much as initially estimated, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. The decline in the February measure of credit card debt and non-revolving loans was worse than the lowest estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 34 economists.

The drop was the 12th in 13 months and shows consumer purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, will be limited until households become more optimistic about the recovery. Confidence to finance spending may be restored if employment keeps rising after a March payroll gain that was the biggest in three years.

“Consumers are much more cautious about taking on additional credit card debt when jobs are still hard to get and their wealth is still down” from levels before the financial crisis, Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report.

Economists expected a $700 million decline in February consumer credit, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Projections ranged from a decrease of $10 billion to an increase of $5 billion.

Borrowing in January was revised from a $5 billion gain, the first in a year and reflecting a jump in federal non- revolving loans, such as student loans. Such borrowing increased an unadjusted $13.9 billion in January, previously reported as a $10.3 billion gain.

Credit Cards:

Revolving debt, such as credit cards, declined by $9.4 billion in February, the most in three months, according to the Fed’s statistics. Non-revolving debt, including loans for cars and mobile homes, dropped by $2.1 billion. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate.

Auto sales in the U.S. slowed in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10.36 million from 10.8 million a month earlier, according to industry statistics. Snow in the eastern U.S. paralyzed car dealerships and other businesses in cities including Washington and Philadelphia.

The pace of car sales jumped to 11.77 million in March, after Toyota Motor Corp. offered incentives to win back buyers following record vehicle recalls.

Consumer spending rose in February for a fifth straight month, Commerce Department figures showed March 29. Purchases increased 0.3 percent, while incomes were unchanged, reflecting slow job creation.

March Employment:

Employment rose 162,000 last month after falling 14,000 in February, the Labor Department said on April 2. The jobless rate held at 9.7 percent.

Spending is forecast to rise an average 2.25 percent in the first six months of the year after increasing at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists from March 1 to March 10.

As the economy and labor market improves, fewer Americans are falling behind in their credit card payments. Five of the six biggest U.S. credit-card lenders, led by Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., said late payments fell or held steady in February as the industry recovered from record losses.

The share of payments at least 30 days overdue, an indicator of future write-offs, dropped to 7.23 percent from January’s 7.35 percent, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America said. New York-based JPMorgan said late payments dropped to 4.67 percent from 4.75 percent.

In 2009, credit-card write-offs increased 59 percent to $89 billion from $56 billion in the previous year, according to R.K. Hammer Investment Bankers, in Thousand Oaks, California. Write- offs and delinquencies typically track the unemployment rate. The jobless rate has declined since reaching 10.1 percent in October, the highest since 1983.

Catherine Austin Fitts: "This is the Soviet Union."

Whistle blower and former U.S. Asst. Secretary of Housing,
Catherine Austin Fitts took off the gloves yesterday
in this national radio appearance, openly talking about
what is unfolding in America today, including subjects
she was once afraid to speak about publicly.

-- Catherine agrees with, and expands upon Ron Paul's
public pronouncement that the international bankers and
the Pentagon/CIA have literally engaged in a coup d'etat
of the U.S. government...

-- She speaks openly about something she was once afraid
to talk about publicly...

-- She explains what the "New World Order" is really about...

-- She lays out what the future of America will look like...

-- She talks about what Huxley, Eisenhower and Brzezinski
told us was coming - a high tech/scientific dictatorship...

-- She says using the words "police state and slavery" are
no longer "unreasonable" in describing America's future...

4-part radio interview, approx 40 minutes:

You must listen to this, it's the best
interview I've ever heard Catherine Austin Fitts do.

Part I
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hzpAYNX5Uc

Part II
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kVoMnmXh2Y

Part III
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_l1FLHAPHI

Part IV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_ZlibXwRh8

Please take (make) the time, and listen to the entire interview,
and do so without any distractions. This is an exceptional
interview and you need to hear it and pass it on...

About Catherine Austin Fitts:
http://solari.com/about-us/resume/

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://www.viddler.com/explore/zigzagman/videos/13/

I usually create this end of the week analysis of the $SPX on a Sunday, but due to the Easter weekend I took that day off to spend time with our family and friends...

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zigzagman

Looting Main Street:

How the nation's biggest banks are ripping off American cities with the same predatory deals that brought down Greece...

By Matt Taibbi
Posted Mar 31, 2010 8:15 AM



If you want to know what life in the Third World is like, just ask Lisa Pack, an administrative assistant who works in the roads and transportation department in Jefferson County, Alabama. Pack got rudely introduced to life in post-crisis America last August, when word came down that she and 1,000 of her fellow public employees would have to take a little unpaid vacation for a while. The county, it turned out, was more than $5 billion in debt — meaning that courthouses, jails and sheriff's precincts had to be closed so that Wall Street banks could be paid.

As public services in and around Birmingham were stripped to the bone, Pack struggled to support her family on a weekly unemployment check of $260. Nearly a fourth of that went to pay for her health insurance, which the county no longer covered. She also fielded calls from laid-off co-workers who had it even tougher. "I'd be on the phone sometimes until two in the morning," she says. "I had to talk more than one person out of suicide. For some of the men supporting families, it was so hard — foreclosure, bankruptcy. I'd go to bed at night, and I'd be in tears."

Homes stood empty, businesses were boarded up, and parts of already-blighted Birmingham began to take on the feel of a ghost town. There were also a few bills that were unique to the area — like the $64 sewer bill that Pack and her family paid each month. "Yeah, it went up about 400 percent just over the past few years," she says.

The sewer bill, in fact, is what cost Pack and her co-workers their jobs. In 1996, the average monthly sewer bill for a family of four in Birmingham was only $14.71 — but that was before the county decided to build an elaborate new sewer system with the help of out-of-state financial wizards with names like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase. The result was a monstrous pile of borrowed money that the county used to build, in essence, the world's grandest toilet — "the Taj Mahal of sewer-treatment plants" is how one county worker put it. What happened here in Jefferson County would turn out to be the perfect metaphor for the peculiar alchemy of modern oligarchical capitalism: A mob of corrupt local officials and morally absent financiers got together to build a giant device that converted human waste into billions of dollars of profit for Wall Street — and misery for people like Lisa Pack.

And once the giant machine was built and the note on all that fancy construction started to come due, Wall Street came back to the local politicians and doubled down on the scam. They showed up in droves to help the poor, broke citizens of Jefferson County cut their toilet finance charges using a blizzard of incomprehensible swaps and refinance schemes — schemes that only served to postpone the repayment date a year or two while sinking the county deeper into debt. In the end, every time Jefferson County so much as breathed near one of the banks, it got charged millions in fees. There was so much money to be made bilking these dizzy Southerners that banks like JP Morgan spent millions paying middlemen who bribed — yes, that's right, bribed, criminally bribed — the county commissioners and their buddies just to keep their business. Hell, the money was so good, JP Morgan at one point even paid Goldman Sachs $3 million just to back off, so they could have the rubes of Jefferson County to fleece all for themselves.

Birmingham became the poster child for a new kind of giant-scale financial fraud, one that would threaten the financial stability not only of cities and counties all across America, but even those of entire countries like Greece. While for many Americans the financial crisis remains an abstraction, a confusing mess of complex transactions that took place on a cloud high above Manhattan sometime in the mid-2000s, in Jefferson County you can actually see the rank criminality of the crisis economy with your own eyes; the monster sticks his head all the way out of the water. Here you can see a trail that leads directly from a billion-dollar predatory swap deal cooked up at the highest levels of America's biggest banks, across a vast fruited plain of bribes and felonies — "the price of doing business," as one JP Morgan banker says on tape — all the way down to Lisa Pack's sewer bill and the mass layoffs in Birmingham.

Once you follow that trail and understand what took place in Jefferson County, there's really no room left for illusions. We live in a gangster state, and our days of laughing at other countries are over. It's our turn to get laughed at. In Birmingham, lots of people have gone to jail for the crime: More than 20 local officials and businessmen have been convicted of corruption in federal court. Last October, right around the time that Lisa Pack went back to work at reduced hours, Birmingham's mayor was convicted of fraud and money-laundering for taking bribes funneled to him by Wall Street bankers — everything from Rolex watches to Ferragamo suits to cash. But those who greenlighted the bribes and profited most from the scam remain largely untouched. "It never gets back to JP Morgan," says Pack.

If you want to get all Glenn Beck about it, you could lay the blame for this entire mess at the feet of weepy, tree-hugging environmentalists. It all started with the Cahaba River, the longest free-flowing river in the state of Alabama. The tributary, which winds its way through Birmingham before turning diagonally to empty out near Selma, is home to more types of fish per mile than any other river in America and shelters 64 rare and imperiled species of plants and animals. It's also the source of one of the worst municipal financial disasters in American history.

Back in the early 1990s, the county's sewer system was so antiquated that it was leaking raw sewage directly into the Cahaba, which also supplies the area with its drinking water. Joined by well — intentioned citizens from the Cahaba River Society, the EPA sued the county to force it to comply with the Clean Water Act. In 1996, county commissioners signed a now-infamous consent decree agreeing not just to fix the leaky pipes but to eliminate all sewer overflows — a near-impossible standard that required the county to build the most elaborate, ecofriendly, expensive sewer system in the history of the universe. It was like ordering a small town in Florida that gets a snowstorm once every five years to build a billion-dollar fleet of snowplows.

The original cost estimates for the new sewer system were as low as $250 million. But in a wondrous demonstration of the possibilities of small-town graft and contract-padding, the price tag quickly swelled to more than $3 billion. County commissioners were literally pocketing wads of cash from builders and engineers and other contractors eager to get in on the project, while the county was forced to borrow obscene sums to pay for the rapidly spiraling costs. Jefferson County, in effect, became one giant, TV-stealing, unemployed drug addict who borrowed a million dollars to buy the mother of all McMansions — and just as it did during the housing bubble, Wall Street made a business of keeping the crook in his house. As one county commissioner put it, "We're like a guy making $50,000 a year with a million-dollar mortgage."

To reassure lenders that the county would pay its mortgage, commissioners gave the finance director — an unelected official appointed by the president of the commission — the power to automatically raise sewer rates to meet payments on the debt. The move brought in billions in financing, but it also painted commissioners into a corner. If costs continued to rise — and with practically every contractor in Alabama sticking his fingers on the scale, they were rising fast — officials would be faced with automatic rate increases that would piss off their voters. (By 2003, annual interest on the sewer deal had reached $90 million.) So the commission reached out to Wall Street, looking for creative financing tools that would allow it to reduce the county's staggering debt payments.

Wall Street was happy to help. First, it employed the same trick it used to fuel the housing crisis: It switched the county from a fixed rate on the bonds it had issued to finance the sewer deal to an adjustable rate. The refinancing meant lower interest payments for a couple of years — followed by the risk of even larger payments down the road. The move enabled county commissioners to postpone the problem for an election season or two, kicking it to a group of future commissioners who would inevitably have to pay the real freight.

But then Wall Street got really creative. Having switched the county to a variable interest rate, it offered commissioners a crazy deal: For an extra fee, the banks said, we'll allow you to keep paying a fixed rate on your debt to us. In return, we'll give you a variable amount each month that you can use to pay off all that variable-rate interest you owe to bondholders.

In financial terms, this is known as a synthetic rate swap — the spidery creature you might have read about playing a role in bringing down places like Greece and Milan. On paper, it made sense: The county got the stability of a fixed rate, while paying Wall Street to assume the risk of the variable rates on its bonds. That's the synthetic part. The trouble lies in the rate swap. The deal only works if the two variable rates — the one you get from the bank, and the one you owe to bondholders — actually match. It's like gambling on the weather. If your bondholders are expecting you to pay an interest rate based on the average temperature in Alabama, you don't do a rate swap with a bank that gives you back a rate pegged to the temperature in Nome, Alaska.

Not unless you're a moron. Or your banker is JP Morgan.

In a small office in a federal building in downtown Birmingham, just blocks from where civil rights demonstrators shut down the city in 1963, Assistant U.S. Attorney George Martin points out the window. He's pointing in the direction of the Tutwiler Hotel, once home to one of the grandest ballrooms in the South but now part of the Hampton Inn chain.

"It was right around the corner here, at the hotel," Martin says. "That's where they met — that's where this all started."

They means Charles LeCroy and Bill Blount, the two principals in what would become the most important of all the corruption cases in Jefferson County. LeCroy was a banker for JP Morgan, serving as managing director of the bank's southeast regional office. Blount was an Alabama wheeler-dealer with close friends on the county commission. For years, when Wall Street banks wanted to do business with municipalities, whether for bond issues or rate swaps, it was standard practice to reach out to a local sleazeball like Blount and pay him a ton of money to help seal the deal. "Banks would pay some local consultant, and the consultant would then funnel money to the politician making the decision," says Christopher Taylor, the former head of the board that regulates municipal borrowing. Back in the 1990s, Taylor pushed through a ban on such backdoor bribery. He also passed a ban on bankers contributing directly to politicians they do business with — a move that sparked a lawsuit by one aggrieved sleazeball, who argued that halting such legalized graft violated his First Amendment rights. The name of that pissed-off banker? "It was the one and only Bill Blount," Taylor says with a laugh.

Blount is a stocky, stubby-fingered Southerner with glasses and a pale, pinched face — if Norman Rockwell had ever done a painting titled "Small-Town Accountant Taking Enormous Dump," it would look just like Blount. LeCroy, his sugar daddy at JP Morgan, is a tall, bloodless, crisply dressed corporate operator with a shiny bald head and silver side patches — a cross between Skeletor and Michael Stipe.

The scheme they operated went something like this: LeCroy paid Blount millions of dollars, and Blount turned around and used the money to buy lavish gifts for his close friend Larry Langford, the now-convicted Birmingham mayor who at the time had just been elected president of the county commission. (At one point Blount took Langford on a shopping spree in New York, putting $3,290 worth of clothes from Zegna on his credit card.) Langford then signed off on one after another of the deadly swap deals being pushed by LeCroy. Every time the county refinanced its sewer debt, JP Morgan made millions of dollars in fees. Even more lucrative, each of the swap contracts contained clauses that mandated all sorts of penalties and payments in the event that something went wrong with the deal. In the mortgage business, this process is known as churning: You keep coming back over and over to refinance, and they keep "churning" you for more and more fees. "The transactions were complex, but the scheme was simple," said Robert Khuzami, director of enforcement for the SEC. "Senior JP Morgan bankers made unlawful payments to win business and earn fees."

Given the huge amount of money to be made on the refinancing deals, JP Morgan was prepared to pay whatever it took to buy off officials in Jefferson County. In 2002, during a conversation recorded in Nixonian fashion by JP Morgan itself, LeCroy bragged that he had agreed to funnel payoff money to a pair of local companies to secure the votes of two county commissioners. "Look," the commissioners told him, "if we support the synthetic refunding, you guys have to take care of our two firms." LeCroy didn't blink. "Whatever you want," he told them. "If that's what you need, that's what you get. Just tell us how much."

Just tell us how much. That sums up the approach that JP Morgan took a few months later, when Langford announced that his good buddy Bill Blount would henceforth be involved with every financing transaction for Jefferson County. From JP Morgan's point of view, the decision to pay off Blount was a no-brainer. But the bank had one small problem: Goldman Sachs had already crawled up Blount's trouser leg, and the broker was advising Langford to pick them as Jefferson County's investment bank.

The solution they came up with was an extraordinary one: JP Morgan cut a separate deal with Goldman, paying the bank $3 million to back off, with Blount taking a $300,000 cut of the side deal. Suddenly Goldman was out and JP Morgan was sitting in Langford's lap. In another conversation caught on tape, LeCroy joked that the deal was his "philanthropic work," since the payoff amounted to a "charitable donation to Goldman Sachs" in return for "taking no risk."

That such a blatant violation of anti-trust laws took place and neither JP Morgan nor Goldman have been prosecuted for it is yet another mystery of the current financial crisis. "This is an open-and-shut case of anti-competitive behavior," says Taylor, the former regulator.

With Goldman out of the way, JP Morgan won the right to do a $1.1 billion bond offering — switching Jefferson County out of fixed-rate debt into variable-rate debt — and also did a corresponding $1.1 billion deal for a synthetic rate swap. The very same day the transaction was concluded, in May 2003, LeCroy had dinner with Langford and struck a deal to do yet another bond-and-swap transaction of roughly the same size. This time, the terms of the payoff were spelled out more explicitly. In a hilarious phone call between LeCroy and Douglas MacFaddin, another JP Morgan official, the two bankers groaned aloud about how much it was going to cost to satisfy Blount:

LeCroy: I said, "Commissioner Langford, I'll do that because that's your suggestion, but you gotta help us keep him under control. Because when you give that guy a hand, he takes your arm." You know?

MacFaddin: [Laughing] Yeah, you end up in the wood-chipper.

All told, JP Morgan ended up paying Blount nearly $3 million for "performing no known services," in the words of the SEC. In at least one of the deals, Blount made upward of 15 percent of JP Morgan's entire fee. When I ask Taylor what a legitimate consultant might earn in such a circumstance, he laughs. "What's a 'legitimate consultant' in a case like this? He made this money for doing nothing."

As the tapes of LeCroy's calls show, even officials at JP Morgan were incredulous at the money being funneled to Blount. "How does he get 15 percent?" one associate at the bank asks LeCroy. "For doing what? For not messing with us?"

"Not messing with us," LeCroy agrees. "It's a lot of money, but in the end, it's worth it on a billion-dollar deal."

That's putting it mildly: The deals wound up being the largest swap agreements in JP Morgan's history. Making matters worse, the payoffs didn't even wind up costing the bank a dime. As the SEC explained in a statement on the scam, JP Morgan "passed on the cost of the unlawful payments by charging the county higher interest rates on the swap transactions." In other words, not only did the bank bribe local politicians to take the sucky deal, they got local taxpayers to pay for the bribes. And because Jefferson County had no idea what kind of deal it was getting on the swaps, JP Morgan could basically charge whatever it wanted. According to an analysis of the swap deals commissioned by the county in 2007, taxpayers had been overcharged at least $93 million on the transactions.

JP Morgan was far from alone in the scam: Virtually everyone doing business in Jefferson County was on the take. Four of the nation's top investment banks, the very cream of American finance, were involved in one way or another with payoffs to Blount in their scramble to do business with the county. In addition to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns paid Langford's bagman $2.4 million, while Lehman Brothers got off cheap with a $35,000 "arranger's fee." At least a dozen of the county's contractors were also cashing in, along with many of the county commissioners. "If you go into the county courthouse," says Michael Morrison, a planner who works for the county, "there's a gallery of past commissioners on the wall. On the top row, every single one of 'em but two has been investigated, indicted or convicted. It's a joke."

The crazy thing is that such arrangements — where some local scoundrel gets a massive fee for doing nothing but greasing the wheels with elected officials — have been taking place all over the country. In Illinois, during the Upper Volta-esque era of Rod Blagojevich, a Republican political consultant named Robert Kjellander got 10 percent of the entire fee Bear Stearns earned doing a bond sale for the state pension fund. At the start of Obama's term, Bill Richardson's Cabinet appointment was derailed for a similar scheme when he was governor of New Mexico. Indeed, one reason that officials in Jefferson County didn't know that the swaps they were signing off on were lousy was because their adviser on the deals was a firm called CDR Financial Products, which is now accused of conspiring to overcharge dozens of cities in swap transactions. According to a federal antitrust lawsuit, CDR is basically a big-league version of Bill Blount — banks tossed money at the firm, which in turn advised local politicians that they were getting a good deal. "It was basically, you pay CDR, and CDR helps push the deal through," says Taylor.

In the end, though, all this bribery and graft was just the table-setter for the real disaster. In taking all those bribes and signing on to all those swaps, the commissioners in Jefferson County had basically started the clock on a financial time bomb that, sooner or later, had to explode. By continually refinancing to keep the county in its giant McMansion, the commission had managed to push into the future that inevitable day when the real bill would arrive in the mail. But that's where the mortgage analogy ends — because in one key area, a swap deal differs from a home mortgage. Imagine a mortgage that you have to keep on paying even after you sell your house. That's basically how a swap deal works. And Jefferson County had done 23 of them. At one point, they had more outstanding swaps than New York City.

Judgment Day was coming — just like it was for the Delaware River Port Authority, the Pennsylvania school system, the cities of Detroit, Chicago, Oakland and Los Angeles, the states of Connecticut and Mississippi, the city of Milan and nearly 500 other municipalities in Italy, the country of Greece, and God knows who else. All of these places are now reeling under the weight of similarly elaborate and ill-advised swaps — and if what happened in Jefferson County is any guide, hoo boy. Because when the shit hit the fan in Birmingham, it really hit the fan.

For Jefferson County, the deal blew up in early 2008, when a dizzying array of penalties and other fine-print poison worked into the swap contracts started to kick in. The trouble began with the housing crash, which took down the insurance companies that had underwritten the county's bonds. That rendered the county's insurance worthless, triggering clauses in its swap contracts that required it to pay off more than $800 million of its debt in only four years, rather than 40. That, in turn, scared off private lenders, who were no longer interested in bidding on the county's bonds. The banks were forced to make up the difference — a service for which they charged enormous penalties. It was as if the county had missed a payment on its credit card and woke up the next morning to find its annual percentage rate jacked up to a million percent. Between 2008 and 2009, the annual payment on Jefferson County's debt jumped from $53 million to a whopping $636 million.

It gets worse. Remember the swap deal that Jefferson County did with JP Morgan, how the variable rates it got from the bank were supposed to match those it owed its bondholders? Well, they didn't. Most of the payments the county was receiving from JP Morgan were based on one set of interest rates (the London Interbank Exchange Rate), while the payments it owed to its bondholders followed a different set of rates (a municipal-bond index). Jefferson County was suddenly getting far less from JP Morgan, and owing tons more to bondholders. In other words, the bank and Bill Blount made tens of millions of dollars selling deals to local politicians that were not only completely defective, but blew the entire county to smithereens.

And here's the kicker. Last year, when Jefferson County, staggered by the weight of its penalties, was unable to make its swap payments to JP Morgan, the bank canceled the deal. That triggered one-time "termination fees" of — yes, you read this right — $647 million. That was money the county would owe no matter what happened with the rest of its debt, even if bondholders decided to forgive and forget every dime the county had borrowed. It was like the herpes simplex of loans — debt that does not go away, ever, for as long as you live. On a sewer project that was originally supposed to cost $250 million, the county now owed a total of $1.28 billion just in interest and fees on the debt. Imagine paying $250,000 a year on a car you purchased for $50,000, and that's roughly where Jefferson County stood at the end of last year.

Last November, the SEC charged JP Morgan with fraud and canceled the $647 million in termination fees. The bank agreed to pay a $25 million fine and fork over $50 million to assist displaced workers in Jefferson County. So far, the county has managed to avoid bankruptcy, but the sewer fiasco had downgraded its credit rating, triggering payments on other outstanding loans and pushing Birmingham toward the status of an African debtor state. For the next generation, the county will be in a constant fight to collect enough taxes just to pay off its debt, which now totals $4,800 per resident.

The city of Birmingham was founded in 1871, at the dawn of the Southern industrial boom, for the express purpose of attracting Northern capital — it was even named after a famous British steel town to burnish its entrepreneurial cred. There's a gruesome irony in it now lying sacked and looted by financial vandals from the North. The destruction of Jefferson County reveals the basic battle plan of these modern barbarians, the way that banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have systematically set out to pillage towns and cities from Pittsburgh to Athens. These guys aren't number-crunching whizzes making smart investments; what they do is find suckers in some municipal-finance department, corner them in complex lose-lose deals and flay them alive.

In a complete subversion of free-market principles, they take no risk, score deals based on political influence rather than competition, keep consumers in the dark — and walk away with big money. "It's not high finance," says Taylor, the former bond regulator. "It's low finance." And even if the regulators manage to catch up with them billions of dollars later, the banks just pay a small fine and move on to the next scam. This isn't capitalism. It's nomadic thievery.

[From Issue 1102 — April 15, 2010]

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32906678/looting_main_street

Jobs Report: Economy 'Is On Path to Sustainable Recovery'

Published: Friday, 2 Apr 2010
11:21 AM ET

By: Reuters with CNBC.com

US employers created jobs in March at the fastest rate in three years as private firms stepped up hiring, the strongest signal yet that the economic recovery is on a solid footing and needs less government help.

Non-farm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent for a third straight month, the Labor Department said Friday.

The payrolls increase was only the third since the economy sunk into recession in late 2007 and was the largest gain since March 2007.

Private employers hired more workers than expected, while temporary hiring for the U.S. decennial census came in below economists' forecasts.

"The economy is on a path to sustainable recovery. The fragility of the recovery is becoming less worrisome," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.

Job growth is critical to keeping alive the economic expansion that started in the second half of 2009 once government stimulus efforts and a boost from a rebuilding inventories by businesses fade.

Market reaction was mostly positive, though muted because of the Good Friday holiday. US stock futures rose slightly in a shortened session, while the cash market was closed. The US dollar rose broadly , while US Treasury prices fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond up to near 4 percent.

"As the market is telling you, this is a half-full, half-empty report," Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC shortly after the jobs numbers were released. "The amount of long-term unemployed continues to go up."

"The question is: Is it sustainable?" El-Erian added, referring to the economic recovery. "That question is going to play out over the rest of the year."

Payrolls for January were revised upward to show a 14,000 gain instead of a loss of 26,000, while February was adjusted to show only a loss of 14,000. Previously, February had been reported as down 36,000.

Markets had expected non-farm payrolls to rise 190,000 last month and the jobless rate to hold steady at 9.7 percent, but a solid rise in private-sector hiring gave the report a stronger-than-expected tone.

The labor market has lagged the economy's recovery from the worst downturn since the 1930s, creating a political challenge for President Barack Obama.

Voter anger over high unemployment could cost Obama's Democratic party its control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in November elections.

Christina Romer, a top White House economic adviser, said the employment report showed "continued signs of gradual labor market healing."

Some analysts said the relatively strong details of the report suggested the economy was on a path that could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as late this year.

The U.S. central bank has promised to keep overnight rates—currently near zero—ultra low for an extended period, citing subdued inflation and the likelihood the economic recovery will be moderate.

The Fed has identified unemployment as one of the factors that will determine when it will start raising rates.

"Job creation would help support the positive momentum in the economy, underpinning consumer spending and confidence and making it a sustained recovery," said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. "If the rest of the data flow this month proves healthy, we believe the Fed will consider removing the 'extended period' language at the April 28 meeting and start hiking rates in September."

The government hired 48,000 temporary workers last month for the decennial census, while private payrolls jumped by 123,000, the biggest increase since May 2007. Private payrolls rose 8,000 in February.

Employment last month was also lifted by a snap back from February's weather-related losses.

Manufacturing added 17,000 jobs in March and construction payrolls grew 15,000 after dropping 59,000 in February.

Payrolls in the service sector increased as retail employment climbed 14,900. Government employment increased 39,000, reflecting the temporary hiring for the census.

The average workweek for all employees rose to 34 hours from 33.9 hours in February.

Despite the sharp turnaround in employment last month, weaknesses still remain.

A broad measure of unemployment that includes the number of workers marginally attached to the labor force and those working part time for economic reasons edged up to 16.9 percent from 16.8 percent in February.

About 44.1 percent unemployed workers in March had been out of a job for 27 weeks or more.

"While things are clearly improving, the private sector is still not positioned to create sufficient numbers of jobs," said Heidi Shierholz and economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington. "There is still an urgent need for aggressive policies to create jobs."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36146865

Jobs, Manufacturing Reports Boost Stock Market:

Stocks climb after drop in initial jobless claims; Manufacturing grows faster than expected:

Stephen Bernard and Tim Paradis, AP Business Writers
On Thursday April 1, 2010, 12:00 pm

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rose Thursday after reports on jobs and manufacturing boosted hopes that a recovery is gaining traction.

The stock market is closed Friday and the bond market closes early for Good Friday.

A government report showing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week added to the market's enthusiasm following upbeat manufacturing reports overseas. In the U.S., a trade group's report signaled that manufacturing is growing faster than expected.

Stocks got a boost from a Labor Department report showing initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 last week. Economists had forecast claims would drop to 440,000.

The weekly report provides some reassurances a day after a payroll company's report on jobs unexpectedly said employers cut private-sector jobs last month. The government's monthly report on employment is scheduled to be released Friday. With the stock market closed investors won't get a good read on the market's reaction until Monday.

Economists predict the Labor Department will say employers added 190,000 jobs last month, which would be only the second month of jobs growth since the recession began.

"Just getting a number with six digits -- over 100,000 -- is I think very much encouraging to a lot of folks who really believe that none of this counts until we start creating jobs," said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing index rose to 59.6 in March from 56.5 in February. A number above 50 indicates growth and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected 57.

International markets rose after new reports showed growth in manufacturing in China and the 16-country bloc that uses the euro. A separate report showed companies in Japan are more confident about the business climate.

In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 81.09, or 0.8 percent, to 10,937.72. The Dow came within 43 points of the psychological barrier of 11,000, a level it topped in 18 months.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 9.96, or 0.9 percent, to 1,179.39, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 11.88, or 0.5 percent, to 2,409.84.

Bond prices fell, pushing yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.87 percent from 3.83 percent late Wednesday.

The dollar fell against other major currencies, while gold rose.

Crude oil rose 85 cents to $84.61 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Stocks are trying to rebound after a disappointing end to an otherwise strong first quarter. Major indexes retreated Wednesday after payroll company ADP said private-sector employers cut 23,000 jobs in March. Economists had predicted ADP's jobs report would show 40,000 jobs were added to payrolls last month.

The Dow dropped 0.5 percent, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent.

The ADP report is often used as an early indicator of the Labor Department's employment report, which will be released Friday. However, there can be wide variations because ADP only accounts for private-sector jobs.

The drop Wednesday brought a lackluster end to a strong first quarter. Stocks have consistently climbed in recent months as investors become more confident the economy is improving, though the growth is slow.

The Dow gained 4.1 percent for the quarter, its best first-quarter performance since 1999. Small, daily gains replaced the big triple-digit moves that defined the market's rally throughout much of 2009 as major indexes hit 12-year lows in March of that year.

The S&P 500 rose 4.9 percent during the first quarter, its best first-quarter since 1998.

In other trading Thursday, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 6.53, or 1 percent, to 685.17.

About four stocks rose for every one that fell to the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a light 343.8 million shares, compared with 359.9 million shares traded at the same point Wednesday.

Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.2 percent, Germany's DAX index gained 1.3 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.5 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.4 percent.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobs-manufacturing-reports-apf-888469478.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Credit Crisis, Outrage, Far From Over:

by Bob Chapman
Posted: March 27 2010

Bernanke re-nominated, outrage at banks, insolvency the real state of banks, crime pays when you are at the top, sovereign debt crisis around the world, debt and derivatives products were all just a ponzi scheme, the problem wont go a way when the system is purged, PIMCO Bill Gross warns of inflation, big cutbacks in services...

The re-nomination of Ben Bernanke, as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has to be one of the ultimate political insults, particularly coming from Republicans, as did his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, both have taken America and the world down the sewer. Ben Bernanke saved Wall Street, the banks, insurance companies and a myriad of other Illuminist firms.

This is the same Ben who refused to release records to uncover where $2 trillion had gone in the loan program that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This is an appellate defeat for the Fed. We would expect they will next appeal to the Supreme Court. This is important to the Fed, because a loss would not only expose which institutions were insolvent, US and foreign, but it would expose what collateral was accepted for these so-called loans, and have they been paid back?

The Fed and American and foreign bankers gambled and lost, so it was up to American taxpayers to bail them out. Needless to say, these actions were outrageous. The Fed not only had no authority to do what they did, but they did, but they also suborned perjury. We wonder how the Appeals Court missed that? The Fed has buried our country in debt, allowed unbelievable leverage and absolutely refuses to tell us what they are up too. Except for a few in Senate and House hearings, questioning is a total farce. The Fed has done as it pleases for 97 years and that has to stop. We cannot allow Ben Bernanke to lie before Congress and get away with it either. We also cannot allow any corporation or financial institution to keep two sets of books and not mark their investment to market.

The financial world is a very small world and everyone knew what was going on at Lehman, just as they knew what Berne Madoff was up too. As usual a conspiracy of silence prevailed in order to allow the wholesale fleecing of the American public to continue unabated. In Wall Street and banking there is still honor among thieves. The Fed knew what was going on at Lehman and let it continue. That is how Mr. Bernanke purgered himself before Congress. Merrill Lynch had already warned the SEC and Fed as to what was actually going on at Lehman. Lehman committed fraud and its officers have thus far gotten away with it. Where is the SEC with civil charges and where is our Justice Department? They both only make selective prosecutions, most of which are based upon politics or the connections of the players. The only time they go after insiders is when they are forced too, like in the recent fine against Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s firm, for accounting fraud of $200 million. The fine was $100 million, so as you can see crime pays. What is worse is that other firms are doing the same thing. This is all part of the mantra that no major financial firm should be allowed to fail. They are too big to fail.

The big bad secret is that if banks and other financial companies reported their true financial positions they’d be out of business – insolvent. The Fed and the SEC are certainly well aware of these problems, but the game goes on. The fraud is intentional and conscience. They know there are two sets of books, that MBS on their books are virtually worthless, they just bought $1.1 trillion worth of the toxic waste and they are well aware that the shadow inventory on their books is at best worth $0.30 on the dollar. In fact, everyone within the beltway knows it, just like seven years ago they all knew Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were broke. As you can see, there is no law; it is only what these people want it to be. Faithfully all regulators and our elected representatives look the other way. They allow corruption to flourish. One thing that can be guaranteed is that if you report any of these frauds nothing is liable to happen. Today that is the American way – crime pays.

As we have said before the exposure of the problems in Greece, those of all the PIIGS and in the US, California, Arizona, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York, open a whole new phase of the debt crisis. The world is in a sovereign debt crisis. In Europe and in the US there are talks regarding a reduction in leverage in currency, which will only cause a liquidity crisis. A rise in interest rates will only compound the problem.

In addition we believe mortgage debt, both commercial and residential, will be sucked into the vortex adding to the woes. This is a replay of what occurred in the 1930s in the debt markets. Do not forget the bond market is 10 times bigger than the stock market and if something has to be sacrificed it will be the stocks, not the bonds. The replay will find stocks falling first, followed by bonds. The bond problem is already very visible; 19 nations have had their credit ratings cut and the US and UK and others will soon follow. That is why we continue to say that the only safe haven is in gold and silver related assets. As we have said previously the only way to handle the problem is for nations to meet, have a multilateral official devaluation and debt default settlement. That will be followed by a deflationary depression, which will be accompanied by another worldwide war.

The debt load, particularly in advanced economies, is overextended and unsustainable at more than 400% of GDP in the US alone. That is 25% higher than US debt was in the 1930s. Those who do believe debt will be settled and currencies devalued, also know that recovery from that debt will take 20 or more years.

At the center of this greed and corruption are derivatives and securitization, which are simply a Ponzi scheme form of finance. These instruments were central to bringing down AIG and GM. The lenders, the large banks, brokerage houses, investment banks and insurance companies wrote these financial products, most of which are and were uncollateralized. As a result of this unethical disaster the American taxpayer was put firmly on the hook to repay this debt and to bail out the lenders. In addition, as you have been recently informed, these products were responsible in part for Greece’s current problems. What Goldman Sachs did was transform government debt into derivatives, which were insured by CDSs. In time the euro zone will break up as a result of this and other factors. If England were to withdraw from the EU that could as well break up the European Union. Speculators have been purchasing Greek CDSs, anticipating debt default and as a result the euro has plunged. All of this is the result of turning world markets into a casino.

As you can see the problems are not going away and they won’t disappear until the system is purged. More than $3 trillion has been poured into GM, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Wall Street banks and brokerage houses by American taxpayers via the Fed and the Treasury. As a result the biggest violators have become even bigger, which was the intention from the beginning. As an example, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs hold almost 40% of all bank deposits. The credit crisis and the debt crisis are far from over. The desk chairs have just been rearranged. Not only will seven million more people lose their homes this year creating a 3-year home inventory for sale, but also lenders will get hit with commercial real estate they cannot possibly finance. We see another minimum of four more years of defaults both in the US and Europe. Taxpayers cannot save the system indefinitely, especially when the players that caused all this are back leveraging and speculating again.

We are facing a commercial debt crisis that no one expects. We are going to see hundreds of US banks fail this year, which the FDIC does not have the funds to cover. This year or next we are facing a sovereign debt crisis in the US, Europe and elsewhere. We are looking at tariffs on goods and services next year. All derivatives should be outlawed except on transparent exchanges and present positions should all be unwound. Europe is already moving ahead on this matter and hopefully an international conclusion can be reached. In addition Glass Steagall should be reinstated and the Fed’s job be turned back to the Treasury Department.

Bearing out what we discussed earlier there is little talk of all G-7 members soon reaching more than 100% of GDP in public debt. As a result every one of these 7 countries have serious problems. In addition they are still expanding M3 or M4. Power and cash consumption shifts more and more toward governments. Banks have cut back lending by some 20%. They are holding government paper probably at the behest of government. The foreign treasury buying could very well be the Fed funding the purchases. Then the carry trade and hedge funds do their part as well. This could be a position of diminishing returns if interest rates rise in the real market, which we believe they will. Some 30 major nations have the same problem the US has and that is funding their own debt, as well as America’s. Again, we have long believed that Treasury funding from the UK, Caymans and other sources was merely a front for Fed purchase of Treasuries. That in part is what the swap agreements are all about. This 40% increase in US monetary base normally would cause inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation, but the affect of 22-1/8% unemployment, low wages and a strong deflationary undertow has held inflation at an official 2-1/2% to 3%, or a real 7-1/2%. We see money and credit continuing to grow at 16% although the Fed has been drawing liquidity from the system. Normally we’d say that the US would emulate Japan’s 20 years of deflationary depression, but this time it is different. Japan wasn’t carrying the debt load the US is today. Japan began off a lower center. The luxury of 20 years of sideways movement that Japan experienced is not available to the US, because of their massive sovereign debt that grows by the minute.

As we pointed out previously foreign holdings of dollars by other central banks has fallen from 64.5% of assets to 60.5%. this has been caused by internal funding needs and flight from the dollar. This fall in dollar reserves sooner of later will force the Fed to raise rates to draw in more dollars to fund US debt. These exercises will also crowd out other corporate borrowers, again putting upward pressure on interest rates. Somewhere along the chain problems will arise and it will snap. We believe that event will be when multilateral official devaluation and debt defaults take place and those events are not far away.

We are at a juncture where governments cannot really help like they could previously and in order to survive they will have to take care of themselves. For the moment they have neutralized a bankrupt banking system by creating enough liquidity to offset deflation. As demands grow the need for liquidity grows just to keep the insolvent system afloat. This approach is funding sovereign debt, but it is not allowing loans to small- and medium- sized businesses and individuals. The system’s worst days lie ahead. Take advantage of the interlude, it will be short lived.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its index, which shows purchase and refinance applications, saw the latest week in March loan application volume decrease 4.2%. The Purchase Index component rose 2.7%. The Refinance Index fell 7.1% week-on-week. The Purchase Index fell 15% year-on-year. These numbers were called an improvement by the mainline controlled media, if you can believe that.

JPMorgan Chase is cutting a deal with your government for a $1.4 billion tax refund. This is a benefit for taking over Washington Mutual. JPM paid only $1.9 billion for Wamu. If the tax break is allowed they have 73.6% of the purchase price back. JPM wants to score $10’s of billions for a $500 million investment. The public gets screwed again and the criminals on Wall Street win.

Orders for long-lasting goods rose in February for a third month, while inventories and backlogs climbed by the most in more than a year, indicating the manufacturing rebound will keep propelling the U.S. recovery.

The 0.5 percent increase in bookings for durable goods was in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and followed a 3.9 percent gain the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders advanced 0.9 percent, more than anticipated.

The U.S. lost 2.4 million jobs to China between 2001 and 2008, according to a new report issued Tuesday.

Texas and California were the hardest hit but every state has experienced job losses because of increased trade from China, according to the report from the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.

The report blamed high job losses in computers, electronic equipment and parts industries, which are concentrated in those two states.

North Carolina was also hit hard according to the report. That state has seen textile, furniture and other small manufacturing industries shrink as companies faced competition from lower-priced Chinese goods.

While the report said low labor costs in China are a big reason for the trade deficit, it also blamed China’s currency manipulation.

China pegs its currency to the U.S. dollar so that it rises and falls with fluxuations in the dollar’s value. Critics say this means China’s currency is undervalued, and that it lowers the price of Chinese exports while making U.S. exports to China more expensive.

Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) have introduced legislation to make it easier for companies to petition the government for tariffs on Chinese products because of currency manipulation.

The two senators are expected to hold a press call Tuesday afternoon on the report.

The report said China has purchased U.S. Treasury bills and other securities to keep the Chinese currency pegged to the U.S. dollar.

China has $2.4 trillion in currency reserves, much of which is thought to be in U.S. dollars.

China’s purchases of U.S. Treasury bills has helped the U.S. finance its debt without raising interest rates, but this has also made Chinese exports to the U.S. less expensive.

Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell slightly in February - the fourth straight monthly drop - to yet another record low. New-home sales slipped 2.2% to an annual pace of 308,000, seasonally adjusted, which is the lowest rate since the government began tracking the data in 1963, according to the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast annualized sales of 318,000. Sales for January were revised to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 315,000, up from 309,000 as previously reported. The median price of a new home sold shot up 6.1% to $220,500 in February from January's revised level of $207,900.

Washington homeowners today sued Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) claiming the lending giant is intentionally withholding government funds intended to save homeowners from foreclosure.

The case, filed in U.S. District Court, claims that Bank of America systematically slows or thwarts Washington homeowners’ access to Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds by ignoring homeowners’ requests to make reasonable mortgage adjustments or other alternative solutions that would prevent homes from being foreclosed.

“We intend to show that Bank of America is acting contrary to the intent and spirit of the TARP program, and is doing so out of financial self interest,” said Steve Berman, managing partner of Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro.

Bank of America accepted $25 billion in government bailout money financed by taxpayer dollars earmarked to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure. One in eight mortgages in the United State is currently in foreclosure or default.

Bank of America, like other TARP-funded financial institutions, is obligated to offer alternatives to foreclosure and permanently reduce mortgage payments for eligible borrowers struck by financial hardship but, according to the lawsuit, hasn’t lived up to its obligation.

According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Bank of America services more than 1 million mortgages that qualify for financial relief, but have granted only 12,761 of them permanent modification.

The big news in the Existing Home Sales report is inventories jumped at the fastest rate in 20 years – to 8.6 months from 7.8 months. As we warned, just like in the mid-00s, government stimulus schemes cannibalized future sales for expediency.

The median home price declined 1.8% y/y; but the surge in inventory and the termination of the first-time home buyers’ tax credit augurs for a steeper decline in prices.

A new national telephone poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. for Fox News concludes:

Most American voters believe it’s possible the nation’s economy could collapse, and majorities don’t think elected officials in Washington have ideas for fixing it.

The latest Fox News poll finds that 79 percent of voters think it’s possible the economy could collapse, including large majorities of Democrats (72 percent), Republicans (84 percent) and independents (80 percent).

Unfortunately, it already has, although Bernanke, Summers and Geithner are still trying to hide that fact.

One more time, from the top...

Consumer spending accounts for the lion's share of the economic activity. The economy cannot recover until trust is restored. Trust won't be restored until the fraud actually stops, the criminals are prosecuted, and the fox is fired from his role as chicken coop guard.

Bill Gross: As a November IMF staff position note aptly pointed out, high fiscal deficits and higher outstanding debt lead to higher real interest rates and ultimately higher inflation, both trends which are bond market unfriendly. In the U.S. in addition to the 10% of GDP deficits and a growing stock of outstanding debt, an investor must be concerned with future unfunded entitlement commitments, which portfolio managers almost always neglect, viewing them as so far off in the future that they don’t matter. Yet should it concern an investor in 30-year Treasuries that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the present value of unfunded future social insurance expenditures (Social Security and Medicare primarily) was $46 trillion as of 2009, a sum four times its current outstanding debt? Of course it should, and that may be a primary reason why 30-year bonds yield 4.6% whereas 2-year debt with the same guarantee yields less than 1%.

The trend promises to get worse, not better. The imminent passage of health care reform represents a continuing litany of entitlement legislation that will add, not subtract, to future deficits and unfunded liabilities

WSJ editorial: U.S. cities, states and the feds have issued more than $2.5 trillion of new debt since 2008, with another nearly $2 trillion scheduled in 2010.

States and cities face $1 trillion to $2 trillion of additional unfunded liabilities in opulent state employee pension and health-care plans. Even as states can't maintain their roads and bridges, politicians have diverted hundreds of billions in tax money to finance salary and pension increases for government workers. Build American Bonds subsidize states and cities so they can avoid a day of reckoning over those benefits.

NYC Mayor Says If Albany Slices City Aid, As Many As 19,000 Will Be Laid Off; 3,100 Less Cops, 1,000 Less Firefighters; Layoffs May Be Worst In Decades; Ball In State Government's Court.

4-Day School Weeks Might Be Coming In Illinois - State House Has Passed Bill Allowing ScDistricts To Set Up Shorter Weeks; Mayor Daley Has Doubts.

Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in six weeks as the rebound in the U.S. economy encourages companies to make fewer cuts in payrolls.

First-time jobless applications declined 14,000 in the week ended March 20 to 442,000, lower than anticipated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance decreased, and those getting extended benefits also fell.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the financial crisis, said U.S. lawmakers may spark a trade war by labeling China as a “currency manipulator.”

“With unemployment at 10 percent and more than 130 Congress people saying we should brand China as a manipulator, the probability the U.S. is going to do that in its mid-April report is significant, I would say at least 50 percent,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television today in Cernobbio, Italy. “That could lead to a trade war, absolutely.”

China pegged the yuan to the dollar in July 2008 to help its exporters weather a global economic slump and after the currency appreciated 21 percent since 2005. International pressure on China to allow the currency to rise has intensified since Premier Wen Jiabao said on March 14 that the yuan isn’t undervalued.

“Under a floating exchange rate the yuan will appreciate, prima facie evidence that the yuan is undervalued,” Roubini said. “It is in the interest of China to let the currency appreciate.”

Chinese central bank advisor Fan Gang said China “may resume a managed float of its exchange rate” if the global economy stabilizes and uncertainty around the economic outlook diminishes. Yuan forwards strengthened against the dollar after his comments were published today in the Melbourne-based Age newspaper.

As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Washington this week absorbing the full wrath of the Obama administration, the Pentagon and Israel's defense establishment were in the process of sealing a large arms deal.

According to the deal, Israel will purchase three new Hercules C-130J airplanes. The deal for the three aircrafts, designed by Lockheed Martin, is worth roughly a quarter billion dollars. Each aircraft costs $70 million.

The aircrafts were manufactured specifically for Israeli needs, and include a large number of systems produced by Israel's defense industry.

The deal will be covered by American foreign assistance funds. The Pentagon will issue a formal announcement on the matter on Thursday evening.

America and Israel have still not reached an agreement regarding the purchase of the Lockheed F-35 war plane. It is still not clear when that deal, which is estimated to be worth more than $3 billion, will finally be sealed and carried out.

If that deal is signed in the near future, Israel will likely receive its first F-35 in 2014.

http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Credit_Crisis_Outrage_Far_From_Over

Morgan Stanley: The Rally Is Near It's End:

30 MARCH 2010 By TPC

When it comes to equity analysts Teun Draaisma is a must-read. The European equity analyst famously called for investors to sell stocks in June 2007 when the markets were flashing a “full house sell” signal. He then flipped bullish in November of 2008 as the markets were pricing in a much more severe situation than Draaisma saw unfolding. He’s one of the few investors who actually got the downturn and the upturn correct and was able to connect the dots between cause and effect. In his latest strategy note Draaisma is saying the rally has gotten ahead of itself and that we’re due to for a correction as good news becomes bad news. In addition to being bearish about 2010 (see here), Draaisma says the better than expected growth in the near-term is putting more pressure on the Fed to raise rates and will lead to tightening measures sooner than most investors suspect:

“The rally since 5-February is nearing its end, we believe. Our thesis is that good growth will lead to tightening measures and struggling equity markets this year, just like in 1994 and 2004. The recent rally was larger than we expected, and in our eyes was due to:

1) there have been no positive payrolls or Fed language change yet (we even saw some loosening rather than tightening
measures last week, with the Greek bailout, the ECB keeping its wide collateral pool for longer and the Obama plan for troubled
mortgage borrowers).

2) sentiment had turned quite cautious in early February. Nevertheless, we do think the market peak associated with the start of tightening is near, and expect 2010 to show a volatile whipsaw pattern in equities. We expect good payrolls (April 2) and a Fed language change (April 30), some leading indicators are rolling over from multi-decade peaks (ECRI leading indicator for the US, OECD leading indicator for the world), and some sentiment surveys have turned more bullish.”

Draaisma believes the market will decline 11% in the next 3-6 months:

“The 3-6 month outlook: tactical caution. The last 12 months have been characterised by record stimulus and rising economic leading indicators. We think the next 6 months will be characterised by some stimulus withdrawal (as a reaction to good growth in Asia and US), and softening leading indicators. We reduced our equity exposure two months ago. We recommend selling into strength, and we think MSCI Europe will reach 1030 at some point later in 2010, down 11% from here.”

On a longer time horizon Draaisma says the markets remain entangled in a bear market and that investors should not be fooled by the cyclical bull within a secular bear:

“The multi-year outlook: the secular bear market that started in 2000 is not yet complete (pages 11-13). We believe the secular bear market is incomplete for a variety of reasons, including that banking crises and bailouts tend to precede debt crises; that the amount of debt has not been reduced yet (it only changed hands to the government); that equity valuations never reached end of bear market levels; and our historical analysis that equities tend to struggle for longer in the aftermath of secular bear markets. When the next earnings recession hits, perhaps in 2012, we expect equities to complete the bear market that started in 2000.”

Draaisma’s outlook isn’t exactly consensus, but then again, it never really has been. And that makes his research a breath of fresh air on Wall Street.

http://pragcap.com/morgan-stanley-the-rally-is-near-its-end

The Big Winner is Big Pharma:

The Big Winner is Big Pharma:

Big Pharma Wins Big With Health Care Reform Bill
ALAN FRAM | 03/29/10 06:31 AM |

WASHINGTON — Chalk one up for the pharmaceutical lobby. The U.S. drug industry fended off price curbs and other hefty restrictions in President Barack Obama's health care law even as it prepares for plenty of new business when an estimated 32 million uninsured Americans gain health coverage.

To be sure, the law also levies taxes and imposes other costs on pharmaceutical companies, leaving its final impact on the industry's bottom line uncertain. A recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street firm, suggests the overhaul could mean "a manageable hit" of tens of billions of dollars over the coming decade while bolstering the value of drug-company stocks. Others expect profits, not losses, of the same magnitude.

Either way, pharmaceutical lobbyists won new federal policies they coveted and set a trajectory for long-term industry growth. Privately, several of them say their biggest triumph was heading off Democrats led by Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., who wanted even more money from their industry to finance the health care system's expansion.

"Pharma came out of this better than anyone else," said Ramsey Baghdadi, a Washington health policy analyst who projects a $30 billion, 10-year net gain for the industry. "I don't see how they could have done much better."

Costly brand-name biotech drugs won 12 years of protection against cheaper generic competitors, a boon for products that comprise 15 percent of pharmaceutical sales. The industry will have to provide 50 percent discounts beginning next year to Medicare beneficiaries in the "doughnut hole" gap in pharmaceutical coverage, but those price cuts plus gradually rising federal subsidies will mean more elderly people will purchase more drugs.

Lobbyists beat back proposals to allow importation of low-cost medicines and to have Medicare negotiate drug prices with companies. They also defeated efforts to require more industry rebates for the 9 million beneficiaries of both Medicare and Medicaid, and to bar brand-name drugmakers' payments to generic companies to delay the marketing of competitor products.

The impressive list of wins is testament to a carefully planned and well-financed lobbying strategy, led by Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, the industry's deep-pocketed trade group. And testament to Billy Tauzin's "genius" for understanding where Pharma's interests really lay.

The trade group has been led by Billy Tauzin, whose $4.5 million in earnings in 2008, the most recent figure available, underscore the high stakes for the industry.

The former Louisiana congressman will quit his post in June – a decision he abruptly announced in February when it seemed the health bill would die. Some industry officials said at the time that Tauzin was forced out, which the trade group denied.

As Obama's health care drive began last year, drugmakers agreed with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., and White House officials to support the effort. In exchange, the companies volunteered $80 billion in 10-year savings for the health care changes, and backed it up with an expensive TV ad campaign pushing Obama's proposal.

It is unclear precisely how much drug manufacturers ended up contributing, in part because much of the savings – like discounts to seniors – come off prices the companies themselves set. Their biggest expenses over the decade are estimated to include over $20 billion for an expanded rebate for medicines used by Medicaid, $28 billion for a new fee on drug firms and about $30 billion for closing the "doughnut hole."

In a March 21 newsletter, the financial services firm Morgan Stanley estimated a $95 billion, 10-year price tag, offset by tens of billions the companies would gain from extra customers and other provisions. Industry critics say the cost will be lower because of firms' control of prices, and will be more than outweighed by added sales.

Yet even the worst-case scenario – a net cost of tens of billions – would be small for a U.S. drug industry that IMS Health, a medical data firm, calculates earns more than $300 billion a year.

"Let's put it this way: They can afford it," said Tim Chiang, a pharmaceutical analyst in Stamford, Conn.

Drugmakers gained an eleventh-hour win when lawmakers decided against expanding drug discounts to some hospitals serving low-income patients, a proposal some feared could cost tens of billions. The overhaul law that Obama signed Tuesday would have broadened those discounts to inpatients, but the companion bill revising the earlier measure largely pulled that back.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Baucus, said in an interview last week that as a trade-off for rolling back that expansion, the drug industry agreed to provide an additional $10 billion over a decade to help close the gap in Medicare coverage.

As for what Democrats gained from their ally, the industry and coalitions it joined spent about $67 million on supportive TV ads since the beginning of 2009, according to Evan Tracey, president of Kantar CMAG, which tracks political ads. That made it one of the biggest players in an airwaves battle that saw all sides spend $220 million.

Pharmaceutical interests spent $188 million lobbying last year, more than all but a handful of industry sectors, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. They employed an army of 1,105 lobbyists.

And after years of funneling most of its campaign contributions to Republicans, the industry has favored Democrats with 56 percent of the $5 million it has handed candidates so far this year. The biggest recipient, by far, of the industry's 2008 election cycle contributions of $13.8 million was Obama, who received $1.2 million for his presidential campaign.

"They're certainly going to get a very high return on that investment," Waxman said in a recent interview.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/29/big-pharma-wins-big-with_n_516977.html

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

Every Sunday evening, I post a video here and on a few other sites that shows the technical analysis of the $SPX daily and weekly charts. I also show the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000 charts, and talk about what kinds of news, earnings reports, and economic reports to pay attention to in the coming week.

Happy Trading next week,
zigzagman

10 Ways the New Healthcare Bill May Affect You:

10 Ways the New Healthcare Bill May Affect You:

by Katie Adams
Friday, March 26, 2010

The Patient Protection and Affordable Healthcare Act, more commonly referred to as the "healthcare bill", has taken over a year to craft and has been a lightning rod for political debate because it effectively reshapes major facets of the country's healthcare industry.

Here are 10 things you need to know about how the new law may affect you:

1. Your Kids are Covered

Starting this year, if you have an adult child who cannot get health insurance from his or her employer and is to some degree dependent on you financially, your child can stay on your insurance policy until he or she is 26 years old. Currently, many insurance companies do not allow adult children to remain on their parents' plan once they reach 19 or leave school.

2. You Can't be Dropped

Starting this fall, your health insurance company will no longer be allowed to "drop" you (cancel your policy) if you get sick. In 2009, "rescission" was revealed to be a relatively common cost-cutting practice by several insurance companies. The practice proved to be common enough to spur several lawsuits; for example, in 2008 and 2009, California's largest insurers were made to pay out more than $19 million in fines for dropping policyholders who fell ill.

3. You Can't be Denied Insurance

Starting this year your child (or children) cannot be denied coverage simply because they have a pre-existing health condition. Health insurance companies will also be barred from denying adults applying for coverage if they have a pre-existing condition, but not until 2014.

4. You Can Spend What You Need to

Prior to the new law, health insurance companies set a maximum limit on the monetary amount of benefits that a policyholder could receive. This meant that those who developed expensive or long-lasting medical conditions could run out of coverage. Starting this year, companies will be barred from instituting caps on coverage.

5. You Don't Have to Wait

If you currently have pre-existing conditions that have prevented you from being able to qualify for health insurance for at least six months you will have coverage options before 2014. Starting this fall, you will be able to purchase insurance through a state-run "high-risk pool", which will cap your personal out-of-pocket expenses for healthcare. You will not be required to pay more than $5,950 of your own money for medical expenses; families will not have to pay any more than $11,900.

6. You Must be Insured

Under the new law starting in 2014, you will have to purchase health insurance or risk being fined. If your employer does not offer health insurance as a benefit or if you do not earn enough money to purchase a plan, you may get assistance from the government. The fines for not purchasing insurance will be levied according to a sliding scale based on income. Starting in 2014, the lowest fine would be $95 or 1% of a person's income (whichever is greater) and then increase to a high of $695 or 2.5% of an individual's taxable income by 2016. There will be a maximum cap on fines.

7. You'll Have More Options

Starting in 2014 (when you will be required by law to have health insurance), states will operate new insurance marketplaces - called "exchanges" - that will provide you with more options for buying an individual policy if you can't get, or afford, insurance from your workplace and you earn too much income to qualify for Medicaid. In addition, millions of low- and middle-income families (earning up to $88,200 annually) will be able to qualify for financial assistance from the federal government to purchase insurance through their state exchange.

8. Flexible Spending Accounts Will Become Less Flexible

Three years from now, flexible spending accounts (FSAs) will have lower contribution limits - meaning you won't be able to have as much money deducted from your paycheck pre-tax and deposited into an FSA for medical expenses as is currently allowed. The new maximum amount allowed will be $2,500. In addition, fewer expenses will qualify for FSA spending. For example, you will no longer be able to use your FSA to help defray the cost of over-the-counter drugs.

9. If You Earn More, You'll Pay More

Starting in 2018, if your combined family income exceeds $250,000 you are going to be taking less money home each pay period. That's because you will have more money deducted from your paycheck to go toward increased Medicare payroll taxes. In addition to higher payroll taxes you will also have to pay 3.8% tax on any unearned income, which is currently tax-exempt.

10. Medicare May Cover More or Less of Your Expenses

Starting this year, if Medicare is your primary form of health insurance you will no longer have to pay for preventive care such as an annual physical, screenings for treatable conditions or routine laboratory work. In addition, you will get a $250 check from the federal government to help pay for prescription drugs currently not covered as a result of the Medicare Part D "doughnut hole".

However, if you are a high-income individual or couple (making more than $85,000 individually or $170,000 jointly), your prescription drug subsidy will be reduced. In addition, if you are one of the more than 10 million people currently enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan you may be facing higher premiums because your insurance company's subsidy from the federal government is going to be dramatically reduced.

Conclusion

Over the next few months you will most likely receive information in the mail from your health insurance company about how the newly signed law will affect your coverage. Read the correspondence carefully and don't hesitate to ask questions about your policy; there may be new, more affordable options for you down the road.

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