Trading Stocks in One-Billionth of a Second:

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/

John C. Ogg - June 14, 2011

The pace at which the market trades stocks, bonds, currencies, and futures seems to have once again become faster than anyone could have ever imagined. Forget a few hundred automated trades a second impacting the markets … If all claims are true, trading in the sub-nanosecond barrier is reality.

High Frequency Trading, what is called HFT on Wall Street, is a mystery to most investors. Its aim is to make money from market inefficiencies via programs that analyze data and which make automated trading decisions that can last for fractions of a second or which can last for a fraction of day. Any market from currencies, to stocks, to futures and options, and other financial instruments can have heavy amounts of HFT influence.

HFT has been a target of Main Street and Washington D.C. for an obvious reason. HFT often excludes Joe Public, leaving the typical investor at a huge disadvantage against the professionals. That’s not the entire story, however. Some successful independent active traders use many tools and tricks of HFT. If the claims are real, those who can afford it will be able to trade stocks, currencies and other electronic market securities in less than one-billionth of a second.

Yes, under 1/1,000,000,000… This is under the nanosecond barrier and that is what has been claimed by an outfit called Fixnetix.

Demonstrations of the technology are taking place this week at the SIFMA Financial Services Technology Expo 2011 in New York. The company has announced its iX-eCute, a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) microchip for “ultra-low latency trading” that is called “the world’s fastest trading appliance for the financial markets.” It says that customers are now seeing latencies as low as 740 nanoseconds through the stack, or wire-to-wire.

The company also noted that this is not just for speed but also for regulatory use. It claims that 20+ pre-risk checks take less than 100 nano seconds.

Fixnetix claims that iX-eCute has no detrimental impact on trading performance with the necessary risk controls as it enforces pre-market risks at nano-second time frames yet still prevents trade latency. It noted that ” Unlike other solutions, the iX-eCute microchip has near zero impact on latency for governing the required checks directed by the recent SEC Rule 15c3-5 and anticipated declarations from other regulatory governing bodies.”


The company has also noted, “Fixnetix iX-eCute microchip can be utilized as a standalone trading gateway which clients can connect to via 1/10 or 40gig Ethernet or as an integrated system in your own x86 or P-series systems to access iX-eCute via PCIe direct memory drivers to gain the ultimate trading speed.” In short, this is a trading gateway that acts as a single interface for multiple financial markets around the globe in multiple asset classes.

Securities Technology Monitor noted on June 10, “Hanweck Associates of New York said its Volera trading and risk management system is capable of calculating 8 million prices a second, using graphics processors in combination with general purpose central processors. The engine is in use at the International Securities Exchange, an all-electronic options exchange.” Effectively, it noted that it has an analytics engine that can price 150 million options in just 17 seconds.

Some firms must have this, whether the argument about “how much advantage comes at what cost” has to be brought up. Here are some scenarios to consider:

Imagine being the fund manager for a high-volume leveraged ETF that uses derivatives, futures, stocks, and options as buy and sell orders come in throughout the day. These funds cannot say that they will reconcile hourly or at the end of the day even if they are honest about the risks of tracking error.

You run a global fund that simultaneously trades currencies, equities via futures and e-minis, bonds, and commodities. Imagine the day that the machines decide to unload $10 billion in bonds to suddenly rotate into equities and hard commodities.

And lastly, the “hope”…. You are a regulatory agency or a risk management professional, and suddenly you can track millions of transactions in literally seconds that flag unusual trading patterns or which put a firm’s capital outside of the legal risk parameters.

With most benefits or advantages, risks follow. Markets can move faster than humans can react, often without rhyme or reason. The Flash Crash was the most recent example that will stand out. The benefit is that institutions could exit or enter positions for billions of dollars in literally a fraction of a second. The bad news is that it could happen so fast that the investment community from retail to most institutional investors to exchanges to regulators might not even notice in time to react.

If a transaction can occur in under one-billionth of a second, then in theory more than one-billion transactions could be transacted in one second as well. Imagine a scenario where the DJIA rallies 100 points in just a few seconds and then sells off by the same amount or more in the following few seconds. It sounds grossly exaggerated, but it might not be.

http://agoracom.com/ir/ECU/forums/discussion/topics/488407-latest-computer-trades/messages/1564145#message

On More Stimulus Spending – by Dr. Ron Paul

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/



Faced with continuing economic decline and an impending election, the administration, predictably, is entertaining the idea of another stimulus package. To explain why the last one didn't work, adherents to the Keynesian economic philosophy are claiming that they actually did work – it just looks like they didn't because we don't realize how much worse off we would be right now without trillions of dollars of public spending. The last administration bought into Keynesianism just as much as this one does, unfortunately. Until we have leaders who understand that debt is not the way to prosperity, there will be no stopping runaway government spending.

While it is nice to hear about business tax breaks, the positive results of these tax cuts will be dwarfed by its negative effects. First of all, $200 billion or so in temporary tax cuts and credits to businesses are nothing compared to the $3.8 trillion in tax hikes that will hit the economy like a ton of bricks on January 1, 2011 if the Bush tax cuts are not extended by Congress.

Second of all, businesses are reluctant to hire and invest, not because they are looking for temporary credits, but because of future uncertainty; they simply don't know what the government is going to do next and how future government policies will affect decisions they make now. What new costs and regulations will be placed on them with healthcare reform and financial services reform? Will Congress convene a lame-duck session this winter to pass cap-and-trade and other destructive legislation? What will the cost of compliance be for hiring new employees, and will that force them to simply lay off anyone they hire now? Worse, will the government come up with fines or additional costs if businesses have to lay people off in the future? Right now, the safest thing for businesses to do is nothing. Until we regain respect for the rule of law and remove some of this uncertainty, I'm afraid none of these temporary promises, made right before an election, will do much towards any economic improvement.

The other glaring problem with this proposed stimulus package is that it couples tax cuts with spending increases, which makes no sense when we are already heavily indebted to foreign countries. We should be cutting taxes and slashing government spending dramatically. The private sector simply cannot bear the burden of our engorged public sector. In fact, one reason earlier stimulus programs did not result in any private sector growth is because large amounts went to the public sector. Indeed, the spending that the administration is now proposing arguably constitutes a bailout of the public sector and various union allies of the administration.

This administration is falling into the same dangerous trap we fell into during the Great Depression, as did the Germans leading into their hyperinflation of the 1920's. The temptation is to do something, anything, proactive to attempt to stimulate the economy, but history has shown us that governments cannot spend their way into prosperity. The best thing government could do is get back to its Constitutional limitations and let the economy stabilize, heal and recover without the crushing burden of government holding it back.

http://www.thedailybell.com/1375/Ron-Paul-On-More-Stimulus-Spending.html

CYCC - Cyclacel reaches Agreement with FDA on a Special Protocol Assessment for Pivotal Phase 3 trial of Sapacitabine in AML:

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/

(CYCC has been my favorite microcap biotech company this year, mostly because they have a Nobel Prize winning scientist that has been working on an oral form of cancer cures for fourteen years. This would eliminate radiation, chemotherapy, and all of the other toxic anti-cancer drugs in use today. Do your own research on this company. I'm sure you will be pleasantly surprised with what you find.

http://www.cyclacel.com/cyc/investors/news/pressreleases/2010/2010-09-13/

BERKELEY HEIGHTS, NJ – September 13, 2010 – Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ - CYCC), a biopharmaceutical company developing oral therapies that target the various phases of cell cycle control for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases, today announced that it has reached agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) on the design of a pivotal Phase 3 trial for the Company’s sapacitabine oral capsules as a front-line treatment in elderly patients aged 70 years or older with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who are not candidates for intensive induction chemotherapy.

“The SPA agreement with FDA represents an important milestone for Cyclacel and provides a clear registration pathway for sapacitabine,” said Spiro Rombotis, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cyclacel. “If it reaches the market, sapacitabine would be the first orally-administered drug to be offered to this patient population with the potential to serve as induction, consolidation and maintenance treatment of this life-threatening disease. In addition to progressing to Phase 3 in AML, we look forward to reporting sapacitabine Phase 2 data in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).”

The Phase 3, registration-directed, clinical trial of sapacitabine oral capsules to be conducted under the SPA will be a randomized study against an active control drug with the primary objective of demonstrating an improvement in overall survival. Sapacitabine will be administered as an outpatient treatment. Cyclacel plans to begin patient enrollment in this Phase 3 trial before the end of 2010. Additional information on the design of the trial will be provided after initiation of the study.

“We are pleased to receive the SPA Agreement letter from the FDA stating that the design and planned analysis of the pivotal Phase 3 study adequately address the objectives necessary to support the submission of a New Drug Application (NDA),” said Judy Chiao, M.D., Vice President of Clinical Development and Regulatory Affairs of Cyclacel. “AML in the elderly is a life-threatening disease with high unmet medical need. Patients with AML aged 70 years or older have a poor prognosis as the majority of these patients are not candidates for intensive induction chemotherapy because of poor tolerability to such therapy and a high risk of relapse because of the lack of effective consolidation and maintenance therapy. We will now concentrate our efforts on initiating the Phase 3 study in AML in collaboration with our clinical investigators.”

In addition to the Cyclacel-sponsored trials of sapacitabine, the company has been approached by cooperative groups seeking to conduct, largely at their expense, investigator-initiated studies of sapacitabine with alternative study designs.

About Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML):

AML is a cancer of the blood cells that progresses rapidly and if not treated, could be fatal in a few months. AML is generally a disease of older people and is uncommon before the age of 40. The average age of a patient with AML is about 67 years. There are more than 12,300 new cases of AML, of which about half are elderly, and nearly 9,000 deaths caused by this cancer each year in the United States. A recently published review of The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center’s historical experience with front-line intensive induction chemotherapy for elderly AML patients aged 70 years or older demonstrated that while 45% of patients achieved a complete remission, median overall survival was only 4.6 months and 36% of patients died within the first 8 weeks of treatment, underscoring the unmet need in this patient setting. †

About Special Protocol Assessment (SPA):

A Special Protocol Assessment is a binding written agreement with the FDA that the sponsor’s proposed trial protocol design, clinical endpoints and statistical analyses are acceptable to support regulatory approval. Final marketing approval depends on efficacy results, adverse event profile and an evaluation of the benefit/risk of a treatment as demonstrated in the trial. For further information regarding the SPA process, please visit the FDA website, www.fda.gov.

About Sapacitabine:

Sapacitabine (CYC682), an orally-available nucleoside analogue, is currently being evaluated in Phase 2 trials in patients with hematological malignancies and solid tumors. Sapacitabine acts through a dual mechanism, interfering with DNA synthesis by causing single-strand DNA breaks and inducing arrest of cell cycle progression mainly at G2-Phase. Both sapacitabine and CNDAC, its major metabolite, have demonstrated potent anti-tumor activity in preclinical studies. Over 200 patients have received sapacitabine in Phase 2 studies in AML, MDS, cutaneous T cell lymphoma (CTCL) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Sapacitabine has been administered to approximately 170 patients in five Phase 1 studies with both hematologic malignancies and solid tumors. In December 2009 at the 51st Annual Meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH), Cyclacel reported data from a randomized Phase 2 study including promising 1-year survival in elderly patients with AML aged 70 years or older. Sapacitabine is part of Cyclacel’s pipeline of small molecule drugs designed to target and stop uncontrolled cell division.

About Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.:

Cyclacel is a biopharmaceutical company developing oral therapies that target the various phases of cell cycle control for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases. Three product candidates are in clinical development: Sapacitabine (CYC682), a cell cycle modulating nucleoside analog, completed Phase 2 studies for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia in the elderly and is in Phase 2 for myelodysplastic syndromes and lung cancer. Seliciclib (CYC202 or R-roscovitine), a CDK (cyclin dependent kinase) inhibitor, is in Phase 2 studies for the treatment of lung cancer and nasopharyngeal cancer and in a Phase 1 trial in combination with sapacitabine. CYC116, an Aurora kinase and VEGFR2 inhibitor, is in a Phase 1 trial in patients with solid tumors. Cyclacel’s ALIGN Pharmaceuticals subsidiary markets directly in the U.S. Xclair® Cream for radiation dermatitis, Numoisyn® Liquid and Numoisyn® Lozenges for xerostomia. Cyclacel’s strategy is to build a diversified biopharmaceutical business focused in hematology and oncology based on a portfolio of commercial products and a development pipeline of novel drug candidates. For additional information please visit www.cyclacel.com.

Forward-looking Statements:

This news release contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from historical results or from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include statements regarding, among other things, the efficacy, safety, and intended utilization of Cyclacel's product candidates, the conduct and results of future clinical trials, plans regarding regulatory filings, future research and clinical trials and plans regarding partnering activities. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially include the risk that product candidates that appeared promising in early research and clinical trials do not demonstrate safety and/or efficacy in larger-scale or later clinical trials, the risk that Cyclacel will not obtain approval to market its products, the risks associated with reliance on outside financing to meet capital requirements, and the risks associated with reliance on collaborative partners for further clinical trials, development and commercialization of product candidates. You are urged to consider statements that include the words "may," "will," "would," "could," "should," "believes," "estimates," "projects," "potential," "expects," "plans," "anticipates," "intends," "continues," "forecast," "designed," "goal," or the negative of those words or other comparable words to be uncertain and forward-looking. For a further list and description of the risks and uncertainties the Company faces, please refer to our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and other periodic and current filings that have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are available at www.sec.gov. Such forward-looking statements are current only as of the date they are made, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Contact for Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.:

Investors/Media:
Corey Sohmer, (908) 517-7330
csohmer@cyclacel.com

Stocks rise as investors sort through mixed earnings; Apple scores but Yahoo falls short.

Seth Sutel and Bernard Condon, AP Business Writers, On Tuesday July 20, 2010, 5:04 pm

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors are trying to get a read on the economy using earnings reports. They're finding it's not so easy.

The result Tuesday was yet another erratic day of stock trading. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75 points after having fallen 140 in early trading in response to a series of disappointing revenue reports. Analysts were hard-pressed to come up with a reason for the turnaround. But trading was extremely light, and that tends to skew stock prices.

Analysts said some investors were getting a little more upbeat as they awaited earnings reports from Yahoo Inc. and Apple Inc. after the close. But those reports came in mixed, just like those from the many companies that have also reported second-quarter results. Apple's stock surged in after-hours trading, but Yahoo fell. Like IBM Corp., Johnson & Johnson and Goldman Sachs Inc., its revenue fell short of expectations.

Investors have been quick to sell on even a whiff of bad news. Early Tuesday, they were motivated by the reports from IBM, J&J and Goldman. Investors have been focusing on revenue rather than bottom-line earnings because of the link between companies' sales and the economy. If revenue is down because consumers aren't spending, that's a sign that the economy could remain weak.

Investors seem to have decided as Tuesday wore on that earnings didn't look quite as bad as they first thought. Analysts noted that Goldman's drop in revenue was similar to those reported by JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. Their revenue fell not because of a weak economy, but because their customers decided to avoid the financial markets' turbulence during the spring.

Some analysts said there were technical factors involved in the market's moves.

"Investors may have been anticipating the market heading back to early July lows so when it didn't fall apart in early trading, they slowly came back in," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group in Westport, Conn.

Those investors were looking at charts that track the movements of indicators including the Standard & Poor's 500. When the S&P reaches, or doesn't reach, a specific level, that can prompt investors to buy or sell.

It was hard to predict what turn trading might take Wednesday. Yahoo and Apple are considered indicators of the overall economy, but their mixed results weren't giving investors a clear-cut direction for stocks.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 75.53, or 0.7 percent, to 10,229.96. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 12.23, or 1.1 percent, to 1,083.48 and the Nasdaq composite index rose 24.26, or 1.1 percent, to 2,222.49.

Advancing stocks were ahead of losers by 4 to 1 on the NYSE, where volume came to an extremely light 1.1 biillion shares.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-are-higher-on-mixed-apf-1741651426.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Stocks Surge after Alcoa, CSX Report Strong Profits:

Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer, On Tuesday July 13, 2010, 4:53 pm

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market got a shot of confidence and adrenaline from the start of second-quarter earnings season.

Investors were enthusiastic Tuesday about better-than-expected profits from aluminum maker Alcoa Inc. and railroad operator CSX Corp. The Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 145 points and the major indexes were up well over 1 percent.

There was more good news from Intel Corp. after the close of trading. The chip maker reported earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations, and it also raised its forecast for the year. Its stock shot up more than 5 percent in after-hours trading.

The companies, among the first to report second-quarter earnings, also issued upbeat forecasts for the rest of the year. That was heartening news for investors who have been concerned that the recovery was stalling, or that the economy might even fall back into recession.

"When we go back to earnings and fundamentals, companies are delivering," said Tom Karsten, senior managing partner at Karsten Financial in Fort Worth, Texas.

Alcoa's earnings reports are closely watched because its varied customer base provides a snapshot of a broad range of other industries. It is also a component of the Dow Jones industrial average. CSX also provides insight into economic activity because it ships a wide range of products.

Alcoa said global consumption of aluminum will grow this year by more than it had forecast just three months ago. There have been concerns that the global economic recovery will end as many European nations face mounting government debt problems and high unemployment slows growth in the U.S.

CSX, meanwhile, said it sees its the economy's upward momentum continuing this year.

Intel's results are considered a good gauge of the health of the economy since its sales are driven by consumers and businesses buying computers.

Frank Ingarra, co-portfolio manager of Hennessy Funds in Stamford, Conn., said Alcoa and CSX's results lifted the market because they hit on the two themes that traders are looking for in earnings: revenue growth and optimistic outlooks.

"That's why the earnings were so good," Ingarra said. "You saw that top-line growth and good guidance."

During the recession, companies that made money often did so by cutting costs rather than bringing in sales. So sales growth is a sign that business is indeed picking up.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the U.S. trade deficit increased to its widest level in 18 months as an increase in exports was outpaced by rising imports. A jump in both imports and exports is a sign that the economy is growing.

Earnings will likely continue to dictate trading over the next few weeks as hundreds of companies release results.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 146.75, or 1.4 percent, to 10,363.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 16.59, or 1.5 percent, to 1,095.34, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 43.67, or 2 percent, to 2,242.03.

http://yhoo.it/bbZZat

"Warning: Crash Dead Ahead. Sell. Get Liquid. Now"...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-is-dead-ahead-sell-get-liquid-now-2010-05-25

MarketWatch: by Paul B. Farrell May 25, 2010

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- "This game's in the refrigerator! The door's closed, the lights are out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the Jell-O is jiggling ..."

That was legendary Lakers' radio announcer Chick Hearn's signature way of calling a game early, telling fans the home team won ... you can head for the exits before the final buzzer. Chick wrote the book with popular sports phrases like "slam dunk," "air ball," "charity stripe," and a "bunny hop in the pea patch" for a traveling violation.

Niall Ferguson: Investing amid uncertaintyEconomic historian and author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, Niall Ferguson gives his predictions on gold prices, emerging markets and the Swiss franc. Ferguson also tells Dow Jones Veronica Dagher where he's investing his money amid the uncertainty.

Chick's our inspiration today: Last March I wrote "6 reasons I'm calling a bottom and a new bull." Today it's time for a new call. We've had a good year. Net gains over 50% in 2009. But now: "Game over, head for the exits." Bears beating bulls.

No, no, "it's a buying opportunity," says another legend, hedge fund manager, Barton Biggs. Buying opportunity? For who? Remember, Biggs isn't advising Joe Lunchbox about what to do with his little 401(k). Biggs' customers are mega-millionaires in his $1.5 billion Traxis Partners Fund. Main Street investors like Joe are prey in his casino.

Read on, you decide: As you stare from high up in the nose-bleed bleachers watching the game, staring at a Dow that not long ago was above 11,000 and heading for 12,000. Now the Dow's sitting on the bench, ready for the showers, weak after a couple air balls around 10,000. No more timeouts. "This game's in the refrigerator."

How bad is your bookie's point spread in this game? A blowout? Will the Dow drop below 9,000 again? Now that it's broken technical supports, will it drop below 6,470, where the last bull rally started in early 2009? Can you handle the nerve-racking volatility generated by Wall Street's high-frequency traders playing the game at warp-speed with algorithms making thousands of micro-bets in milliseconds, betting billions daily?

So who should you listen to? Barton and I arrived at Morgan Stanley about the same time. He stayed decades longer, became one of the world's leading strategists, advising the kind of high-rollers who also bet at private tables in a Vegas casino.

You remember Biggs: In his book "Wealth, War & Wisdom" he advises his high rollers to prepare for a "breakdown of the civilized infrastructure." Buy a farm: "Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food ... It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson." Biggs is not advising small investors on what to do with their 401(k)s.

If you're gambling at Wall Street's casino, folks, the odds-makers are betting against Biggs. It's "game over."

Main Street lost 20% last decade ... yet like sheep keep going back.

Yes, if you're channeling Chick, here's your "mixed metaphor" cue card: "This game's in the refrigerator ... Wall Street won (proof, Goldman's $100-million-profit trading days and Blankfein's $68 million bonus) ... Main Street's headed for another losing streak ... Congress' lights are out ... the refrigerator door's closing on financial reforms ... the lobbyists are laying some rotten eggs, poisoning capitalism ... the Tea Party-of-No-No ideologies are hardening ... the bull's Jell-O is jiggling to a flat line ... and this market's going into hibernation, with the bears ... run, don't walk, to the exits, folks."

But will Main Street exit? Will we ever learn? No. The Wall Street casino makes mega-billions for insiders like Blankfein and the Goldman Conspiracy. Yet "The Casino" is still below the 2000 record of 11,722. So after accounting for inflation, Wall Street lost over 20% of Main Street's 401(k) retirement money between 2000 and 2010. Yes, Wall Street's a big loser the past decade. Their advice is self-serving. Period.

Given their miserable track record, only a fool would bet with Wall Street. Betting odds are Wall Street will lose another 20% in the next decade from 2010-2020. Yes, today's market is a "buying opportunity," but only for Wall Street casino insiders like Biggs, Blankfein and even low-level staffers inside "The Casino." But not for our 95 million Main Street investors, there's more pain ahead, this market's dropping.

Correction? New crash imminent, worse than 2008
More proof: Earlier economist Gary Shilling said price-to-earnings ratios are at a "nosebleed 22.5 level." The Dow was around 11,000. Money manager Jeremy Grantham recently said the market's overvalued 40%. That could mean a collapse to 6,600. Last week in Reuters' "Markets Could Be Derailed Again," George Soros echoed a "game over" warning with a "stark warning ... that the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis."

Now Dow Theory's Richard Russell is warning the public of an imminent crash:

"Sell ... get liquid ... by the end of this year they won't recognize the country."

A bigger meltdown than the credit crisis? Yes, Bush's team drove America into a ditch. But now Obama and his money men, Summers, Geithner, Bernanke, are digging the hole deeper. Soros says we have not learned "the lessons that markets are inherently unstable." As a result, "the success in bailing out the system on the previous occasion led to a super-bubble." Now "we are facing a yet larger bubble." Worse than 2008?

Yes, the game may be "in the refrigerator," the lights will go out, but as Soros hints, the electricity may get turned off too. Get it? This may not be a correction. Not even a bear. What's coming could be worse than the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 meltdown combined, a "Super-Bubble" says Soros. And the biggest reason, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm tell Newsweek, is that "the president's half-measures won't fix our failed financial system" because he refuses to "bust up the too-big-to-fail banks."

Yes, Congress will pass something. But unfortunately, as reported on MSNBC, Senator Dodd, the reform bill's sponsor, is a turncoat, working overtime with Wall Street lobbyists "to weaken financial reform," leave us vulnerable to a new, bigger crash in the near future. And Wall Street lobbyists are spending hundreds of millions to kill reform.

'White Swans:' 2000 and 2008 crashes were predictable, next one too.

Recently Roubini was interviewed by Charlie Rose in BusinessWeek. His message confirms the worst. Roubini was questioned about his new book, "Crisis Economics." Rose began by asking, "what have we learned from these crises of capitalism?" Roubini could easily have said, "nothing, we learned nothing." His actual reply:

"The first lesson is that crises are not 'black swan' events ... they're not just random outcomes. They are the result of a buildup of financial and policy vulnerability and mistakes -- excessive risk-taking, leverage, debt, and so on." They are 'White Swans' "because these events are predictable. But generation after generation, we seem to forget the past. When there's a bubble, there's euphoria. There's irrational exuberance. Consumers can use their homes like ATM machines. Governments and policy makers are happy because they get reelected. Wall Street makes billions of dollars of profits. Everybody's delusional."

Sound familiar? Yes indeed, in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff pinpoint the key signal that will blow the whistle and call the game: The "90% ratio of government debt to GDP is a tipping point in economic growth." For 800 years "you increase it over and beyond a high threshold, and boom!"

Warning, fans, the numbers on the game-clock are flashing wildly. America's ratio is now 92%, thanks to Obama's $1.7 trillion budget, future deficits, exploding debt. Soon, Ka-Booom! Another great nation bites the dust. Depression follows. Goodbye retirement.

Warning: 800 years of history are calling 'game over'
But can't we change destiny? Or are Dodd, Congress, Obama, Wall Street, the Party of No-No and 300 million Americans all just playing their parts in a historical script well-known to historians like Reinhart and Rogoff, Kevin Phillips, Niall Ferguson and others? The message of "This Time Is Different" is very simple:

"We have been here before. No matter how different the latest financial frenzy or crisis always appears, there are usually remarkable similarities from past experience from other countries and from history. ... no country, irrespective of its global importance, appears to be immune to it. The fading memories of borrowers and lenders, policy makers and academics, and the public at large do not seem to improve over time, so the policy lessons on how to 'avoid' the next blow-up are at best limited."

So please listen closely: All the TARP bailouts, stimulus debt and Fed loans won't work. Neither will a new conservative government. This is not a basketball game. We are not channeling Chick Hearn, calling this game before the final buzzer. While we prefer the illusion that "this time really is different," eight centuries of history suggest otherwise:

"The lesson of history, then, is that even as institutions and policy makers improve there will always be a temptation to stretch the limits. ... If there is one common theme to the vast range of crises ... it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether it be by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom. ... Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang -- confidence collapses, lenders disappear and a crisis hits. ... Highly leveraged economies ... seldom survive forever ... history does point to warnings signs that policy makers can look to access risk -- if only they do not become too drunk with their credit bubble-fueled success and say, as their predecessors have for centuries, 'This time is different'."

No, "this time" it's never different. Get it? In the end, it doesn't matter what happens to the Dodd-Obama financial reforms. The endgame's never a Black Swan, it's a very White Swan well known to historians -- guaranteed, inevitable and inescapable. This time is never different.

The clock's flashing. Huge point spread. Think bear, think crash, think end of capitalism, think Great Depression II ...

This is no buying opportunity, this game's in the refrigerator, call it...

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://www.viddler.com/explore/zigzagman/videos/19/

Here is the end of the week Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman

"Your Big, Fat-Fingered Debacle" (Collapse):

By Randall W. Forsyth

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB127320706419088061.html?mod=googlenews_barrons

YOU KNOW IT'S A BEAR MARKET when the Dow Jones Industrials end down 348 points and traders breathe a sigh of relief.

The collapse is blamed on computers, but that misses the point. Debt deflation is unabated by the ECB.

At its low Thursday, the Dow was gripped with a thousand points of fright as the result of an apparent "fat finger" trade that, according to numerous stories circulating around the market, entered a sell order for billions when it was supposed to be for millions.

The stock in question supposedly was Procter & Gamble (PG), which was trading steadily around 62 until it collapsed to as low as 39.37 in a flash before rebounding almost immediately and closed at 60.75, down 1.41 or 2.27%, which is bad enough. But consider Accenture (ACN), which went from over $40 to a mere penny in the same flash before recovering to 41.09, for a loss on the session of 1.08 or 2.56%.

Some of these errant trades will be cancelled. Trades that were more than 60% above or below levels at 2:40 PM EDT will be cancelled, Nasdaq said late Thursday. Yet that doesn't compensate all that was lost in this fiasco.

I'm not talking about the $1 trillion of market value that evaporated in the past three sessions. That's based on the Wilshire 5000, the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market, which reflects closing prices.

But ordinary stock investors were directly affected by the mindless selling of stocks by electronic, high-frequency trading algorithms that reacted to the sudden plunge in the market.

Limit orders to buy stocks at below-market prices were executed, which got bargains for buyers. Conversely, sellers got correspondingly lower prices.

For instance, an investor who might have placed a stop-limit order (which gets triggered if a stock drops to a certain price to limit losses) would have had that order executed unexpectedly. But it wouldn't be because of a fundamental market drop but a computer gone wild. (I know, because it happened to me.)

Thursday's thousand-Dow point fiasco is just another black eye for Wall Street at a time it is already under attack.

After Congressional hearings with bewildering references to CDS, CDO and all manner of mind-bending market arcana, the bizarre swings seen on a day such as this only confirms Washington's and Middle America's worst suspicions about Wall Street.

Instead of being a provider of capital to finance growth of the great American economy, days like this make Wall Street seem as if it is nothing but a casino. And as with all casinos, it seems one that is designed to separate the customer from his money.

Yet even after the near-thousand-point drop was reversed, the major U.S. averages were still down more than 3% and holders of equities $1 trillion poorer than three days earlier. Something more than fat fingers is afoot.

"Those losses, led by financials, were no glitch, but a clear reflection of the fact that sovereign debt woes due to indiscriminate Keynesian deficit spending is outrunning tepid global recovery and threatening the next financial blowout," asserts Uwe Parpart, Cantor Fitzgerald's chief economist and strategist for Asia.

"A machine or bad entry may have been the catalyst, but the scene was set for a big fall," he continues. "The fact that gold prices jumped and barely came back down; that the euro dropped one big figure [that is, more than a full cent against the dollar] and stayed down; that oil tanked -- and all that accompanied by a sharp unwinding of carry trades…amply proves the point."

The unwinding of carry trades was evident in a sharp drop in the Australian dollar's cross-rate against the yen, Parpart points out. Carry trades involve buying high-yielding assets, such as those in Aussie dollars, with borrowings in low-yielding currencies, in this case Japanese yen.

It could also be in dollars. And the unwinding of carry trades means buying greenbacks to repay those borrowings. As a result, the dollar soared further against the euro, with the common currency plunging below $1.27 amid continuing protests in Greece and the European Central Bank's stand-pat policy position.

Not surprisingly, the flight to quality accelerated, with Treasuries soaring again and yields plunging to 2010 lows. The benchmark 10-year note yield ended at 3.40%, down sharply from 4% a month ago. The popular way to play long Treasuries, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ticker: TLT) gained over 3% Thursday and is up over 10% from a month ago.

But corporate credits decoupled from Treasuries amid continued stresses in the money markets, especially the European interbank markets. The iShares iBoxx $ Invesment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) fell 1.65% while Treasuries were soaring. Liquidity in the corporate bond market is diminishing, Loomis Sayles' veteran bond manager Dan Fuss said at a mutual-fund conference Thursday.

Beyond the monster, momentary glitches that sent the equity markets into freefall momentarily, it is the reemergence of the credit stresses that were at the core of the 2008 meltdown that is important.

In 2008, that was the result of funding difficulties by institutions left on the hook for errant credit decisions. In the case of Lehman Brothers, the U.S. authorities claimed they didn't have the power to step in to stop the panic resulting from its collapse. When it came to AIG, they found the necessary authority to stanch the bleeding.

Ultimately, the federal government came to the fore with the much-criticized TARP, or Troubled Assets Relief Program. The Federal Reserve followed with its massive purchases of Treasury, agency and mortgage-backed securities totaling $1.75 trillion. The recovery in the markets roughly dates from the March 2009 Federal Open Market Committee when that program, commonly referred to as quantitative easing.

Now, with civil unrest in Greece instead of the collapse of U.S. financial institutions, the ECB Thursday declined to take the same decisive actions that the Fed took in March of last year. For better or worse, the ECB refused to step in to monetize the debts of the beleaguered nations even as civil unrest continued in the Streets of Athens.

The aggressive actions to counter the credit crises in the U.S. and the U.K. have been roundly criticized on the Right and the Left of both countries.

British authorities worried about civil unrest had they let Northern Rock fail. The run on banks and especially money-market funds could have been destabilizing in the U.S. Moreover, the steps taken to counter the crisis by the outgoing Bush administrations were continued and extended by the Obama administration.

The lesson is this goes far beyond some computer glitches, fat fingers or other technical difficulties. And the Greek crisis is no more just a European problem than the subprime mortgage collapse was solely an American problem. In sum, to think that this is only a momentary downdraft is a delusion.

Ten Ways the American Economy Is Built on Fraud:

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VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

Here is the end of the week Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman

$POZN Gets FDA Approval for Pozen Inc.'s Pain Drug - Vimovo:

POZN - US FDA OK's AstraZeneca, Pozen Inc.'s Pain Drug:

Fri Apr 30, 2010 5:19pm EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN3015546220100430?rpc=44

* Agency clears drug for U.S. market

* Vimovo includes naproxen and Nexium ingredient

* Pozen shares up more than 21 percent after-hours

POZN Conference Call link: http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/5/113585.html

WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved AstraZeneca Plc (AZN.L) and Pozen Inc's (POZN.O) pain drug Vimovo, an agency spokeswoman told Reuters on Friday.

Vimovo is a fixed-dose combination of the anti-inflammatory drug naproxen and an immediate release version of esomeprazole, the active ingredient in AstraZeneca's acid reflux treatment Nexium.

Shares of Pozen were up more than 21 percent, or about $2.30, in after-hours trading on Friday, trading at $13.15, after earlier closing at $10.85. (Reporting by Susan Heavey; additional reporting by Ben Hirschler in London and Vidya Loganathan in Bangalore; editing by Carol Bishopric)

POZN is currently halted...Per the Nasdaq.com website:

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts

No time is given for resumption of trading...

There was a huge Bear Raid at 12:37 this afternoon, as the MM's took out all of the stop-loss limit orders people had in place:



POZN After-Hours Chart shows it closed at $13.15 when it was halted for "news pending":