High Frequency Terrorism: How the Big Banks and Federal Reserve Maintained Their Death Grip Over the United States:

By David DeGraw & Max Keiser, AmpedStatus Report
Posted on Monday, May 10th, 2010 at 1:11 am

http://ampedstatus.com/high-frequency-terrorism-how-the-big-banks-and-federal-reserve-maintained-their-death-grip-over-the-united-states

The following article is the third-part of a six-part report titled: “The Financial Oligarchy Reigns: Democracy’s Death Spiral From Greece to the United States.” The full report is available here:

http://ampedstatus.com/the-financial-oligarchy-reigns-democracys-death-spiral-from-greece-to-the-united-states

III: Financial Terrorism Operations: 9/29/08 & 5/6/10

In the aftermath of Goldman Sachs’ public flogging before the world in Congress, and while under investigation, on the very day that Congress was voting on the “break up the too big to fail banks” amendment and cutting behind the scenes deals to gut the audit of the Federal Reserve, the stock market had its greatest sudden drop in history, plummeting 700 points in ten minutes - shades of September 29, 2008 all over again.

If you recall, back in September ‘08, as Congress was voting down the first bailout, the big banks made the market plunge a record 778 points in one day, fear and panic then led Congress to pass the bailout. Trillions of our tax dollars, the money that we desperately need to keep our society functioning over the long run, then went out the window and into the pockets of the very people who caused the crash.

What happened on September 29, 2008 will go down in history as one of the greatest acts of terrorism ever.

9/29/08 proved that when you have so much power concentrated in the hands of a few, you can manipulate a computer algorithm and make the market and economy go which ever way you want it to go. So on 5/6/10, just as the power of the big banks was threatened again on the floor of the Senate and a deal on auditing the Federal Reserve was being negotiated, in came a sudden and unprecedented ten-minute 700 point market drop. A precision-guided High Frequency Trading (HFT) attack to show Congress who’s boss.

If you think the massive sudden drop happened because one lowly trader hit one wrong button, if you actually believe that the entire stock market can plunge because of one mistaken key stroke by a low level trader, you are stunningly naïve. I hate to burst your bubble, but this was a direct attack.

In a market where 70% of all trades are executed by computer algorithms via High Frequency Trading (HFT), Goldman Sachs has the power to make the market crash or rise at will. In fact, Goldman has a major Weapon of Mass Destruction in its Program Trading monopoly of the New York Stock Exchange, as Tyler Durden described on Zero Hedge:

“Goldman’s dominance of the NYSE’s Program Trading platform, where in addition to recent entrant GETCO, it has been to date an explicit monopolist of the so-called Supplementary Liquidity Provider program, a role which affords the company greater liquidity rebates for, well providing liquidity, and generating who knows what other possible front market-looking, flow-prop integration benefits. Yesterday [5/6/10], Goldman’s SLP function was non-existent. One wonders - was the Goldman SLP team in fact liquidity taking, or to put it bluntly, among the main reasons for the market collapse….

… here is the most recently disclosed NYSE program trading data….

What is notable here is that of the 1.4 billion in principal shares, or shares traded for the firm’s own account, Goldman was the top trader by a margin of over 100% compared to the second biggest program trader.

We have long claimed that Goldman is the de facto monopolist of the NYSE’s program trading platform. As such, it is certainly the case that Goldman was instrumental in either a) precipitating yesterday’s crash or b) not providing the critical liquidity which it is required to do, when the time came. There are no other options.”

For further investigation, I turned to Max Keiser, who has written and authored similar Program Trading and HFT computer algorithms. I asked him if he thought this was an attack, here is what he had to say:

“May 6th was an unequivocal act of domestic financial terrorism in America. A day that will live in infamy.

To scare the lawmakers, themselves large owners of the very banks and stocks that they are supposed to be regulating, a financial Weapon of Mass Destruction was put to their head and they acquiesced.

As the inventor of the continuous double-auction, market-making technology (VST tech. US pat. no. 5950176) that is referenced 132 times by program trading and HFT patents since 1996, I can tell you that Goldman, JP Morgan and the gang simply pulled the ‘buys’ from their computer trading programs and manufactured a crash. And when the coast was clear, and it was clear the politicians were not going to vote for anything that would break up the ‘too big to fail’ banks; all the ’sells’ were pulled from the computers and the market roared back.

This is a Manchurian Candidate market where program trading bots start the ball rolling in whatever direction Wall St. wants the market to go - and then hundreds of thousands of day-traders watching Cramer on CNBC jump on the momentum bandwagon and commit the crime for the Wall St. financial terrorists, who then say, ‘It wasn’t us, it was ‘the market!’”

On Friday, the next day, after the “break up the too big to fail banks” amendment was soundly defeated by a 61 to 33 margin in Senate and a deal was struck to eliminate key provisions from the audit of the Federal Reserve bill, Goldman was meeting with the SEC to work out a settlement in their case against them. Once again, Goldman proves that crime pays. Welcome to the New Mafia World Order.

Other than the two major operations carried out on 9/29/08 and 5/6/10, we must also recall a smaller attack on January 21st and 22nd of 2010, when Obama had a press conference and came out in favor of the Volcker Rule, which would have limited these HFT and “proprietary trading” schemes. At that time, the market dropped 430 points. Soon after this attack, all follow up talk on the Volcker Rule faded away and this reform has not been seriously addressed by Obama since then.

The bottom line, the United States has been taken over by a financial terrorism network. Let’s face it, we are all hostages of these financial terrorists and our puppet politicians rather be in on the scam than defend our interests. If these terrorists don’t get their way at all times, they have the power to throw their tremendous weight around and turn millions of lives upside down in a matter of minutes, and as they have shown they have no hesitation in executing that power, no matter how many millions of lives they destroy.

They set off this crisis with a wave of bombings in their initial Economic Shock and Awe campaign two years ago, resulting in massive devastation. Just to name a few of their greatest hits within the U.S.:

* 50 million Americans are now living in poverty, which is the highest poverty rate in the industrialized world;

* 30 million Americans are in need of work;

* Five million American families foreclosed upon, 15 million expected by 2014;

* 50% of US children will now use a food stamp during childhood;

* Soaring budget deficits in states across the country and a record high national debt, with austerity measures on the way;

* Record-breaking profits and bonuses for themselves.

Like other terrorists, they don’t use IEDs, they use CDOs. They don’t use precision laser-guided missiles, they use High Frequency Trading. They don’t have WMDs, they have derivatives. Let’s also not forget that they have toxic assets and dirty debt bombs just waiting to be deployed upon the American public once there is any true growth in the economy. Their nuclear arsenal includes hundreds of Trillions in secretive derivatives and hidden debt bombs, just ticking away, waiting to be set off… at their whim...

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://www.viddler.com/explore/zigzagman/videos/19/

Here is the end of the week Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman

"Your Big, Fat-Fingered Debacle" (Collapse):

By Randall W. Forsyth

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB127320706419088061.html?mod=googlenews_barrons

YOU KNOW IT'S A BEAR MARKET when the Dow Jones Industrials end down 348 points and traders breathe a sigh of relief.

The collapse is blamed on computers, but that misses the point. Debt deflation is unabated by the ECB.

At its low Thursday, the Dow was gripped with a thousand points of fright as the result of an apparent "fat finger" trade that, according to numerous stories circulating around the market, entered a sell order for billions when it was supposed to be for millions.

The stock in question supposedly was Procter & Gamble (PG), which was trading steadily around 62 until it collapsed to as low as 39.37 in a flash before rebounding almost immediately and closed at 60.75, down 1.41 or 2.27%, which is bad enough. But consider Accenture (ACN), which went from over $40 to a mere penny in the same flash before recovering to 41.09, for a loss on the session of 1.08 or 2.56%.

Some of these errant trades will be cancelled. Trades that were more than 60% above or below levels at 2:40 PM EDT will be cancelled, Nasdaq said late Thursday. Yet that doesn't compensate all that was lost in this fiasco.

I'm not talking about the $1 trillion of market value that evaporated in the past three sessions. That's based on the Wilshire 5000, the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market, which reflects closing prices.

But ordinary stock investors were directly affected by the mindless selling of stocks by electronic, high-frequency trading algorithms that reacted to the sudden plunge in the market.

Limit orders to buy stocks at below-market prices were executed, which got bargains for buyers. Conversely, sellers got correspondingly lower prices.

For instance, an investor who might have placed a stop-limit order (which gets triggered if a stock drops to a certain price to limit losses) would have had that order executed unexpectedly. But it wouldn't be because of a fundamental market drop but a computer gone wild. (I know, because it happened to me.)

Thursday's thousand-Dow point fiasco is just another black eye for Wall Street at a time it is already under attack.

After Congressional hearings with bewildering references to CDS, CDO and all manner of mind-bending market arcana, the bizarre swings seen on a day such as this only confirms Washington's and Middle America's worst suspicions about Wall Street.

Instead of being a provider of capital to finance growth of the great American economy, days like this make Wall Street seem as if it is nothing but a casino. And as with all casinos, it seems one that is designed to separate the customer from his money.

Yet even after the near-thousand-point drop was reversed, the major U.S. averages were still down more than 3% and holders of equities $1 trillion poorer than three days earlier. Something more than fat fingers is afoot.

"Those losses, led by financials, were no glitch, but a clear reflection of the fact that sovereign debt woes due to indiscriminate Keynesian deficit spending is outrunning tepid global recovery and threatening the next financial blowout," asserts Uwe Parpart, Cantor Fitzgerald's chief economist and strategist for Asia.

"A machine or bad entry may have been the catalyst, but the scene was set for a big fall," he continues. "The fact that gold prices jumped and barely came back down; that the euro dropped one big figure [that is, more than a full cent against the dollar] and stayed down; that oil tanked -- and all that accompanied by a sharp unwinding of carry trades…amply proves the point."

The unwinding of carry trades was evident in a sharp drop in the Australian dollar's cross-rate against the yen, Parpart points out. Carry trades involve buying high-yielding assets, such as those in Aussie dollars, with borrowings in low-yielding currencies, in this case Japanese yen.

It could also be in dollars. And the unwinding of carry trades means buying greenbacks to repay those borrowings. As a result, the dollar soared further against the euro, with the common currency plunging below $1.27 amid continuing protests in Greece and the European Central Bank's stand-pat policy position.

Not surprisingly, the flight to quality accelerated, with Treasuries soaring again and yields plunging to 2010 lows. The benchmark 10-year note yield ended at 3.40%, down sharply from 4% a month ago. The popular way to play long Treasuries, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ticker: TLT) gained over 3% Thursday and is up over 10% from a month ago.

But corporate credits decoupled from Treasuries amid continued stresses in the money markets, especially the European interbank markets. The iShares iBoxx $ Invesment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) fell 1.65% while Treasuries were soaring. Liquidity in the corporate bond market is diminishing, Loomis Sayles' veteran bond manager Dan Fuss said at a mutual-fund conference Thursday.

Beyond the monster, momentary glitches that sent the equity markets into freefall momentarily, it is the reemergence of the credit stresses that were at the core of the 2008 meltdown that is important.

In 2008, that was the result of funding difficulties by institutions left on the hook for errant credit decisions. In the case of Lehman Brothers, the U.S. authorities claimed they didn't have the power to step in to stop the panic resulting from its collapse. When it came to AIG, they found the necessary authority to stanch the bleeding.

Ultimately, the federal government came to the fore with the much-criticized TARP, or Troubled Assets Relief Program. The Federal Reserve followed with its massive purchases of Treasury, agency and mortgage-backed securities totaling $1.75 trillion. The recovery in the markets roughly dates from the March 2009 Federal Open Market Committee when that program, commonly referred to as quantitative easing.

Now, with civil unrest in Greece instead of the collapse of U.S. financial institutions, the ECB Thursday declined to take the same decisive actions that the Fed took in March of last year. For better or worse, the ECB refused to step in to monetize the debts of the beleaguered nations even as civil unrest continued in the Streets of Athens.

The aggressive actions to counter the credit crises in the U.S. and the U.K. have been roundly criticized on the Right and the Left of both countries.

British authorities worried about civil unrest had they let Northern Rock fail. The run on banks and especially money-market funds could have been destabilizing in the U.S. Moreover, the steps taken to counter the crisis by the outgoing Bush administrations were continued and extended by the Obama administration.

The lesson is this goes far beyond some computer glitches, fat fingers or other technical difficulties. And the Greek crisis is no more just a European problem than the subprime mortgage collapse was solely an American problem. In sum, to think that this is only a momentary downdraft is a delusion.

High-Speed Trading Glitch Costs Investors Billions:

On Thursday May 6, 2010, 9:22 pm EDT

http://tinyurl.com/2b43wk8

The glitch that sent markets tumbling Thursday was years in the making, driven by the rise of computers that transformed stock trading more in the last 20 years than in the previous 200.

The old system of floor traders matching buyers and sellers has been replaced by machines that process trades automatically, speeding the flow of buy and sell orders but also sometimes facilitating the kind of unexplained volatility that roiled markets Thursday.

“We have a market that responds in milliseconds, but the humans monitoring respond in minutes, and unfortunately billions of dollars of damage can occur in the meantime,” said James Angel, a professor of finance at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

In recent years, what is known as high-frequency trading — rapid computerized buying and selling — has taken off and now accounts for 50 to 75 percent of daily trading volume. At the same time, new electronic exchanges have taken over much of the volume that used to be handled by the New York Stock Exchange.

In fact, more than 60 percent of trading in stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange takes place on other, computerized exchanges.

Many questions were left unanswered even hours after the end of the trading day. Who or what was the culprit? Why did markets spin out of control so rapidly? What needs to be done to prevent this from happening again?

The Nasdaq exchange said it would cancel trades that moved shares more than 60 percent up or down at 2:40 p.m., when stocks like Accenture plummeted to a penny a share, for seemingly no reason. Exelon, the utility operator, fell to a hundredth of a penny, from $44.

Procter & Gamble, a big component of the Dow Jones industrial average, dived 37 percent for a brief time before rebounding. The move by Procter alone pushed down the Dow by more than 150 points, providing cause for a broad alarm among investors, followed by panicked selling.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said they were examining the cause of the unusual trading activity.

Mary Schapiro, the chief of the S.E.C., and Gary Gensler, the head of the C.F.T.C., held conference calls with overseers of the exchanges who were reviewing trading tapes from the day.

One official said they identified “a huge, anomalous, unexplained surge in selling, it looks like in Chicago,” at about 2:45 p.m. The source remained unknown, but that jolt apparently set off trading based on computer algorithms, which in turn rippled across all indexes and spiraled out of control.

How the markets managed to snap back remained a question Thursday night.

The near-instantaneous swings left brokers dumbfounded. Dermott W. Clancy, who runs a New York Stock Exchange broker, said Thursday was one of the five worst days he has seen in 24 years in the business. When the market dropped across all indexes in a matter of minutes, customers were calling him nonstop.

“They’re calling saying ‘Is there something I’m missing? Is there somebody valuing these securities at this level? Is there some news in the marketplace I’m not aware of?’ ” he said.

The answer — that it all started with an apparent error — infuriated Mr. Clancy. “There are so many things wrong with what happened today,” he said. “The market was never down one thousand points. Procter & Gamble should never have traded at $39. But a lot of people lost money as if the prices were meant to drop. This is an injustice to the public.”

The whole trading system, Mr. Clancy said, went into what brokers call “slow mode.” When the large sell order came in, the market makers for each of those stocks were overwhelmed trying to sell that order and they could not take other orders. It was sort of like a traffic jam on one highway that spread to create traffic jams everywhere.

Suddenly, traders started to distrust what they were seeing.

“There was no pricing mechanism,” Mr. Clancy said. “There was nothing. No one knew what anything was worth. You didn’t know where to buy a stock or sell a stock. You didn’t know if the market was down $500 or $1,000.”

Ten Ways the American Economy Is Built on Fraud:

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Stocks Slide As New Doubts About Greece Aid Emerge:

Stocks in US, Europe slump as fears of debt contagion from Greece worsen...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-slide-as-new-doubts-apf-2098108080.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Stephen Bernard and Tim Paradis, AP Business Writers, On Tuesday May 4, 2010, 11:40 am

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks plunged around the world Tuesday as fears spread that Europe's attempt to contain Greece's debt crisis would fail. The dollar spiked against the embattled euro, sending prices for oil and other commodities sharply lower.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell about 250 points, erasing its 143-point gain from Monday. The Dow and broader indexes each fell more than 2 percent. Treasury prices rose on increased demand for safety investments.

Stocks have seesawed sharply in the past week as Europe's efforts to agree on a bailout package for Greece proceeded in fits and starts. An agreement finally came together over the weekend, but its ballooning size of $144 billion has investors worried that Europe would have an even tougher time assembling an aid package if a larger country such as Spain or Portugal were to get in trouble.

Meanwhile protests erupted throughout Greece against the spending cuts the country has promised to make in order to receive the bailout loans. A general strike has been called for Wednesday. Greece agreed on Sunday to slash public spending by $40 billion to secure the loans.

While Greece's economy is relatively small, investors worry that other cash-strapped European governments could follow Greece into asking for emergency loans. Markets have been increasingly skeptical that Europe can act on its own restore the credibility of its shared currency, the euro.

"Everybody is worried about who is going to be next," said Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York.

The euro again fell against the dollar as traders turned away from the currency, which is used by 16 European Union countries including Greece. The euro hit its lowest level in a year. Investors have punished the euro over the past few months over doubts that Europe would be able to enforce fiscal discipline in Greece and other weak countries in the region in order to protect the euro.

The rising dollar is a negative for U.S. investors since it would cut into profits for U.S. companies that heavily rely on foreign operations. When the dollar is up, overseas profits translate into less money. The strong dollar also sends prices for basic materials like oil higher, which hurts manufacturing companies.

In late morning trading, the Dow fell 255.60, or 2.3 percent, to 10,896.23. It is the Dow's fifth move of more than 100 points in the past six days. The Dow jumped 143 points Monday after sliding 159 on Friday.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 29.83, or 2.5 percent, to 1,172.43. The Nasdaq composite index fell 80.33, or 3.2 percent, to 2,418.41.

Investors rushed to safety holdings like Treasurys, pushing down yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.62 percent from 3.69 percent late Monday.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, which is known as the market's fear gauge, soared 21 percent. That is a signal that more investors are betting on big drops in the market.

The dollar rose against other major currencies, especially the euro. The euro sank as low as $1.3038 in New York, its weakest point since April 2009. It was worth $1.3212 late Monday and had traded as high as $1.51 last November, before the extent of Greece's debt crunch had become apparent.

Crude oil fell to $2.70 to $83.49 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Stronger economic reports were of little help to stocks.

The Commerce Department said orders to U.S. factories rose 1.3 percent in March. Analysts expected a drop. The National Association of Realtors said its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes rose a stronger-than-expected 5.3 percent in March.

About six stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 400 million shares compared with 302 million traded at the same point Monday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 20.06, or 2.7 percent, to 712.76.

In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.8 percent, Germany's DAX index dropped 2.5 percent, and France's CAC-40 tumbled 3.5 percent.

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

Here is the end of the week Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman

$POZN Gets FDA Approval for Pozen Inc.'s Pain Drug - Vimovo:

POZN - US FDA OK's AstraZeneca, Pozen Inc.'s Pain Drug:

Fri Apr 30, 2010 5:19pm EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN3015546220100430?rpc=44

* Agency clears drug for U.S. market

* Vimovo includes naproxen and Nexium ingredient

* Pozen shares up more than 21 percent after-hours

POZN Conference Call link: http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/5/113585.html

WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved AstraZeneca Plc (AZN.L) and Pozen Inc's (POZN.O) pain drug Vimovo, an agency spokeswoman told Reuters on Friday.

Vimovo is a fixed-dose combination of the anti-inflammatory drug naproxen and an immediate release version of esomeprazole, the active ingredient in AstraZeneca's acid reflux treatment Nexium.

Shares of Pozen were up more than 21 percent, or about $2.30, in after-hours trading on Friday, trading at $13.15, after earlier closing at $10.85. (Reporting by Susan Heavey; additional reporting by Ben Hirschler in London and Vidya Loganathan in Bangalore; editing by Carol Bishopric)

POZN is currently halted...Per the Nasdaq.com website:

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts

No time is given for resumption of trading...

There was a huge Bear Raid at 12:37 this afternoon, as the MM's took out all of the stop-loss limit orders people had in place:



POZN After-Hours Chart shows it closed at $13.15 when it was halted for "news pending":

First Quarter 2010 GDP Advance: by Karl Denninger...

Friday, April 30. 2010

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2010/04/30.html

So the data is out....

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 5.6 percent.

Well, that's not what the previous quarter was, but it's also no surprise.

The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, a downturn in residential fixed investment, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in PCE and a deceleration in imports.

The inventory cycle is about done, residential fixed investment hasn't turned around at all and in fact is still declining, and state and local government spending is down - they're out of money!

There are some interesting data points inside the release. Of note:

* Durables were up big - 11.3%. Most of this is probably improvement in vehicles, if the reports from the first quarter automakers are to be believed. Considering that they were in all-on crash mode last year and into the end of 2009, this is good for them - not so good for anything else.

* In domestic private investment the only place we saw gains was in "equipment and software." Residential and non-residential structures were both down big, seasonally adjusted (10.9% and 14%, respectively.) But the CapEx cycle that everyone is counting on for continued expansion is slowing q/o/q; it was up 19% last quarter, and is now up 13.4%. While that's a significant positive print if this was a short spurt and is now tapering off we got trouble in the back half of the year. The jury remains out on this one.

* Net exports were up nicely. Hint-hint: Policies that strengthen or stabilize the dollar will help this continue - like, for example, abandoning ZIRP! We need this to continue - if it reverses, we're cooked and fast. Bernanke needs to raise rates to above that of the ECB. He may get some help if a few European nations collapse, of course - but if they wind up at zero, we need to be at 1%, and that divergence needs to be established right now. We do NOT want a skyrocketing dollar, but because we import too much of our raw materials and it is the "value added" that we get to keep, we want cheaper imports of those materials - and we get that by being able to buy them with a stronger buck. The specific issue here is energy (oil prices); we can't have oil going back over $100, and the best way to prevent it is to get rid of ZIRP.

* Government spending is very interesting. The Federal government, of course, continues to spend. But most of the government's deficit spending isn't going into direct expenditures - it is instead going into transfer payments and handouts of various sorts, as the total federal spending was up only 1.4%. State and local spending were down big, as they're simply out of money.

* Finally, disposable personal income was up just 1.5%. Where is all the federal borrowing going?

I'm concerned with these numbers - quite concerned in fact. The Federal Government borrowed (and presumably spent) $462 billion in excess of tax receipts over the first three months of 2010.

But PCE - personal consumption expenditures - was up $83 billion and federal spending was up only 3.5 billion.

Where did the other $375 billion go?...

Into a black hole of covering existing obligations, it appears, and the final private demand GDP deficit covered by this is almost exactly 10% (GDP for the quarter is ~3.650 trillion, so $375 billion is roughly 10% of that.)

What does this mean? It means we've not turned the corner on this graph, which was current as of 12/31/2009 (and which I can't get an accurate read on until the end of this year):



I don't like it folks. All the claims of "economic recovery" are in fact claims of "government is propping up 10% of final demand, and that propping up is disappearing into a black hole."

There's no evidence in this report that the economy is recovering - that is, that the artificial "borrowed and spent" support the government has been providing for the last two years is being replaced with actual final demand.

The positives in the GDP report are automobiles (strong this quarter) and a positive, but weakening CapEx cycle in business spending.

But the key item for me in this series, which is evidence that the federal government's replacement of final private demand is moderating and being picked up by private economic activity, is utterly absent. In fact the influence of those dollars, as shown by the final print compared to last quarter, is waning.

One-sentence summary: The rocket is running out of fuel.

$GS - The Death of Goldman Sachs:

Steven G. Brant
Posted: April 27, 2010 06:58 PM

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-g-brant/the-death-of-goldman-sach_b_554371.html

I saw something die today. It didn't die accidentally either. It was killed.

This was a very painful event to watch, not just because death is tragic and not because this death was intentional rather than accidental.

It was very painful to watch because the thing being killed didn't even know it was dying... and it didn't know it was actually participating in its own death. It didn't know it was helping the hangman not just put the noose around its neck but helping the hangman open the trap door under its feet.

What died today was Goldman Sachs. It has existed for 140 years. But today all that ended, as the head of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, in his prepared remarks before the Senate Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Investigations, said "We have been a client-centered firm for 140 years and if our clients believe that we don't deserve their trust, we cannot survive."

That was Lloyd Blankfein putting the noose around Goldman Sachs' neck.

And then - in his opening exchange with Subcommittee chair Senator Carl Levin - Lloyd Blankfein proved that Goldman Sachs absolutely, positively does not deserve the trust of its clients.

That was Lloyd Blankfein helping open the door under Goldman Sachs' feet.

In his Senate appearance, Lloyd Blankfein participated in the death of his own company. It was really a stunning thing to watch.

I expect Goldman Sachs to be out of business by the end of this year and maybe before the November election. That's just my opinion, of course. But I'll justify it in a moment.

I will post C-Span's coverage of this testimony as soon as it's available. I predict it will be viewed for years to come by students of business ethics but also by students of famous moments in the civic life of America. I believe this moment will be seen on par with the famous incident in which Senator McCarthy was brought down with the simple question "Have you no sense of decency?"

Senator Carl Levin's simple question - the one that killed Goldman Sachs - was "Do you think it's proper for Goldman Sachs to bet against the security it is selling to a client without telling that client that it is making that bet?"

(I will check the transcript later, to make sure I have the wording of this question correct.)

Mr. Blankfein said over and over again that it was proper for Goldman Sachs to do what they had done. He even said at one point that the minute Goldman Sachs sells something to its customer, it no longer owns that security and has "the opposite interest" to its client regarding that security. This was just one of many breathtaking moments, as I could tell that Mr. Blankfein had no idea what he was doing to his firm.

In late 2001, the collapse of ENRON led to the death of the legendary accounting firm Arthur Andersen.

Arthur Anderson's reputation was unmatched in the field; but, in 2002, Arthur Andersen was found guilty of criminal charges related to its auditing of ENRON and gave up its license to practice accounting.

Criminal behavior. No trust. Reputation destroyed. No customers. Firm dead

Welcome to the Arthur Andersen reality, Goldman Sachs.

Civil charges of fraud brought, and there may be more coming. No trust. Reputation destroyed. No customers. Firm dead.

What a fascinating time we are living in. If things really do play out the way they did with ENRON and Arthur Andersen - and I think they will - I guess we'll be able to say that there is such a thing as white-collar justice in America.

Lloyd Blankfein's testimony is now available on C-Span's video page.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/293196-3

Matt Taibbi: The Lunatics Who Made a Religion Out of Greed and Wrecked the Economy:

The SEC's lawsuit against Goldman Sachs is a chance to prevent greed without limits...

http://www.alternet.org/story/146611/taibbi:_the_lunatics_who_made_a_religion_out_of_greed_and_wrecked_the_economy__?page=entire



April 26, 2010

So Goldman Sachs, the world's greatest and smuggest investment bank, has been sued for fraud by the American Securities and Exchange Commission. Legally, the case hangs on a technicality.

Morally, however, the Goldman Sachs case may turn into a final referendum on the greed-is-good ethos that conquered America sometime in the 80s – and in the years since has aped other horrifying American trends such as boybands and reality shows in spreading across the western world like a venereal disease.

When Britain and other countries were engulfed in the flood of defaults and derivative losses that emerged from the collapse of the American housing bubble two years ago, few people understood that the crash had its roots in the lunatic greed-centered objectivist religion, fostered back in the 50s and 60s by ponderous emigre novelist Ayn Rand.

While, outside of America, Russian-born Rand is probably best known for being the unfunniest person western civilisation has seen since maybe Goebbels or Jack the Ripper (63 out of 100 colobus monkeys recently forced to read Atlas Shrugged in a laboratory setting died of boredom-induced aneurysms), in America Rand is upheld as an intellectual giant of limitless wisdom. Here in the States, her ideas are roundly worshipped even by people who've never read her books or even heard of her. The rightwing "Tea Party" movement is just one example of an entire demographic that has been inspired to mass protest by Rand without even knowing it.

Last summer I wrote a brutally negative article about Goldman Sachs for Rolling Stone magazine (I called the bank a "great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity") that unexpectedly sparked a heated national debate. On one side of the debate were people like me, who believed that Goldman is little better than a criminal enterprise that earns its billions by bilking the market, the government, and even its own clients in a bewildering variety of complex financial scams.

On the other side of the debate were the people who argued Goldman wasn't guilty of anything except being "too smart" and really, really good at making money. This side of the argument was based almost entirely on the Randian belief system, under which the leaders of Goldman Sachs appear not as the cheap swindlers they look like to me, but idealized heroes, the saviors of society.

In the Randian ethos, called objectivism, the only real morality is self-interest, and society is divided into groups who are efficiently self-interested (ie, the rich) and the "parasites" and "moochers" who wish to take their earnings through taxes, which are an unjust use of force in Randian politics. Rand believed government had virtually no natural role in society. She conceded that police were necessary, but was such a fervent believer in laissez-faire capitalism she refused to accept any need for economic regulation – which is a fancy way of saying we only need law enforcement for unsophisticated criminals.

Rand's fingerprints are all over the recent Goldman story. The case in question involves a hedge fund financier, John Paulson, who went to Goldman with the idea of a synthetic derivative package pegged to risky American mortgages, for use in betting against the mortgage market. Paulson would short the package, called Abacus, and Goldman would then sell the deal to suckers who would be told it was a good bet for a long investment. The SEC's contention is that Goldman committed a crime – a "failure to disclose" – when they failed to tell the suckers about the role played by the vulture betting against them on the other side of the deal.

Now, the instruments in question in this deal – collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps – fall into the category of derivatives, which are virtually unregulated in the US thanks in large part to the effort of gremlinish former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who as a young man was close to Rand and remained a staunch Randian his whole life. In the late 90s, Greenspan lobbied hard for the passage of a law that came to be called the Commodity Futures Modernisation Act of 2000, a monster of a bill that among other things deregulated the sort of interest-rate swaps Goldman used in its now-infamous dealings with Greece.

Both the Paulson deal and the Greece deal were examples of Goldman making millions by bending over their own business partners. In the Paulson deal the suckers were European banks such as ABN-Amro and IKB, which were never told that the stuff Goldman was cheerfully selling to them was, in effect, designed to implode; in the Greece deal, Goldman hilariously used exotic swaps to help the country mask its financial problems, then turned right around and bet against the country by shorting Greece's debt.

Now here's the really weird thing. Confronted with the evidence of public outrage over these deals, the leaders of Goldman will often appear to be genuinely confused, scratching their heads and staring quizzically into the camera like they don't know what you're upset about. It's not an act. There have been a lot of greedy financiers and banks in history, but what makes Goldman stand out is its truly bizarre cultist/religious belief in the rightness of what it does.

The point was driven home in England last year, when Goldman's international adviser, sounding exactly like a character in Atlas Shrugged, told an audience at St Paul's Cathedral that "The injunction of Jesus to love others as ourselves is an endorsement of self-interest". A few weeks later, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein told the Times that he was doing "God's work".

Even if he stands to make a buck at it, even your average used-car salesman won't sell some working father a car with wobbly brakes, then buy life insurance policies on that customer and his kids. But this is done almost as a matter of routine in the financial services industry, where the attitude after the inevitable pileup would be that that family was dumb for getting into the car in the first place. Caveat emptor, dude!

People have to understand this Randian mindset is now ingrained in the American character. You have to live here to see it. There's a hatred toward "moochers" and "parasites" – the Tea Party movement, which is mainly a bunch of pissed off suburban white people whining about minorities consuming social services, describes the battle as being between "water-carriers" and "water-drinkers". And regulation of any kind is deeply resisted, even after a disaster as sweeping as the 2008 crash.

This debate is going to be crystallised in the Goldman case. Much of America is going to reflexively insist that Goldman's only crime was being smarter and better at making money than IKB and ABN-Amro, and that the intrusive, meddling government (in the American narrative, always the bad guy!) should get off Goldman's Armani-clad back. Another side is going to argue that Goldman winning this case would be a rebuke to the whole idea of civilisation – which, after all, is really just a collective decision by all of us not to screw each other over even when we can. It's an important moment in the history of modern global capitalism: whether or not to move forward into a world of greed without limits.

Fed Keeps Rates At Record Lows; Upbeat On Economy:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-keep-rates-at-record-lows-apf-1923832918.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, On Wednesday April 28, 2010, 2:17 pm

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve is sounding a more confident note that the economy is strengthening and pledges to hold rates at record lows to make sure it gains even more traction.

Wrapping up a two-day meeting Wednesday, the Fed in a 9-1 decision retained its pledge to hold rates at historic lows for an "extended period." Doing so will help energize the recovery.

The Fed offers a more upbeat view of the economy, even as it notes that risks remain.

The Fed says the job market is "beginning to improve" and notes that consumer spending has "picked up." Both observations were brighter than when the Fed last met in mid-March.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve policymakers are likely to deliver a fresh vote of confidence in the staying power of the recovery as signs multiply the economy is strengthening.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues resumed their two-day meeting Wednesday morning and are all but certain to keep holding rates at record lows to help the economy grow. However, they'll also expected to discuss when and how they'll reverse course and start boosting rates once the recovery is firmly rooted.

The Fed meets as the economy flashes growing signs of improvement.

Employers are creating jobs. Americans' confidence is rising and they are spending more. Manufacturers are boosting production. And an increasing number of companies -- such as Ford, Caterpillar and UPS -- are seeing their profits grow. By those measures, the economy is in better shape now than when the Fed last met in mid-March.

Still, there are continuing strains: high unemployment at 9.7 percent, loans are hard for people and businesses to obtain, and the housing and commercial real-estate markets are fragile. Greece's debt crisis also is roiling Wall Street. U.S. stocks lost 2 percent on Tuesday.

"The Fed's confidence in the recovery has clearly improved, and they'll communicate that," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock. "But they are still going to be cautious because certainly nothing about the economy is cast in stone. I don't think the Fed wants to create any image that it's ready to boost rates," he added.

For now, the Fed is poised yet again to leave its key bank lending rate between zero and 0.25 percent, where it's remained since December 2008.

Assuming the Fed leaves rates alone, commercial banks' prime lending rate, used to peg rates on certain credit cards and consumer loans, will stay about 3.25 percent. That's its lowest point in decades.

Rock-bottom rates serve borrowers who qualify for loans and are willing to take on more debt. But they hurt savers. Low rates are especially hard on people living on fixed incomes who are earning scant returns on their savings.

Still, if super-low rates spur Americans to spend more, they will help invigorate the economy. That's why the Fed also is expected to repeat its pledge -- in place for more than a year -- to keep rates at record lows for an "extended period."

Some concern has emerged inside the Fed that that pledge could limit its ability to quickly raise rates when necessary. Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, for two straight meetings has opposed the Fed's decision to retain the "extended period" pledge.

Hoenig said he fears keeping rates too low for too long could lead to excessive risk-taking by investors, feeding new speculative bubbles. He's also expressed concern that low rates could eventually unleash inflation.

Yet Bernanke and other Fed officials in recent weeks have made clear that the Fed's pledge to keep rates at record lows for an "extended period" is linked to the economy's performance -- not to a specific period. The Fed will raise rates whenever it decides it's necessary, Bernanke has said.

Higher rates for millions of American borrowers are still months away at best, many economists predict.

The timing and execution of a Fed policy shift is a high-stakes game.

The Fed needs to hold rates at record lows long enough to make sure the recovery is lasting, especially once the bracing effects of the government's massive fiscal stimulus fades later this year.

On the other hand, the Fed must be nimble to start tightening credit to prevent inflation from becoming a problem or sowing the seeds of new speculative excesses such as in the prices of stocks, bonds or commodities.

One tricky question is when the Fed should start selling some of its vast portfolio of mortgage securities. The Fed bought $1.25 trillion of these securities to drive down mortgage rates and aid the housing market. Its challenge is to sell those assets in a way that doesn't weaken home prices and push up mortgage rates.

"My expectation is that sales would be slow, gradual, announced in advance, and would not create undue market impacts," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress recently.

The Fed's balance sheet has exploded, reflecting the central bank's action to fight the financial crisis. It stood at $2.3 trillion for the recent week, more than double the level before the crisis struck.

"I think we would like to bring the balance sheet back to something consistent with where it was before the crisis," Bernanke told lawmakers. "And that would suggest something under a trillion dollars, I think, would be appropriate."

Besides selling securities outright, the Fed has a number of other tools to shrink its balance sheet when it moves to tighten credit. Those include selling securities from its portfolio with an agreement to buy them back later. Those operations are called reverse repurchase agreements. The Fed also is moving forward on a plan to let banks set up the equivalent of certificates of deposit at the central bank. That would give banks an incentive to park money at the Fed, rather than lending it out.

Unemployment Falls In A Majority Of Large Metro Areas As Recovery Spreads:

Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer - Wednesday April 28, 2010, 1:28 pm

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unemployment-falls-in-a-apf-3686872780.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Unemployment rates fell or remained level in three-quarters of the 372 largest metropolitan areas, a sign that the economic recovery is widespread.

The Labor Department said Wednesday the jobless rate dropped in 69 percent of metro areas last month from February. It rose in 24 percent of large cities and remained the same in the rest.

That's an improvement from February, when the unemployment rate decreased in 51 percent of metro areas and increased in one-third.

The report follows other recent encouraging news about jobs. Employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the government said earlier this month, the most significant gain in three years.

Still, the growth wasn't enough to bring down the unemployment rate, which remained at 9.7 percent for the third straight month.

The metro unemployment data isn't seasonally adjusted and can be volatile from month to month. Some of the cities with sharp drops last month in unemployment recorded big increases in February. That could reflect the impact of February's massive snowstorms, economists said.

Steven Cochrane, managing director at Moody's Analytics, said Wednesday's report shows employment nationwide is stabilizing.

"The recovery really is spreading broadly across the country," Cochrane said. "I'm not seeing any regional clusters ... that look like they're shifting relative to others."

Year-over-year figures, which cancel out seasonal variations, also show improvement. But they also illustrate how far much of the country has to go to recover from the recession.

The jobless rate dropped in only 41 metro areas in March compared to the previous year, while rising in 321. As recently as December, the unemployment rate fell in only one area compared to a year earlier.

The report shows unemployment is still widespread. Twenty-eight cities reported jobless rates above 15 percent, compared to 29 in February. Fifteen of those cities were in California and five were in Michigan.

Unemployment topped 10 percent in 164 cities last month, down from 187 in both January and February.

Among the 49 cities with a population of 1 million or more, the Detroit metro area had the highest unemployment rate, the department said, at 15.5 percent. The Riverside, Calif. metro area had the second highest, at 15 percent.

The New Orleans metro area had the lowest rate among cities with 1 million or more, at 6 percent, followed by Oklahoma City at 6.1 percent. Both regions have benefited from higher oil prices in recent months. New Orleans' port has seen a jump in international trade.

Computerized Front Running: How A Computer Program Designed to Save the Free Market Turned Into a MONSTER!:

Ellen Brown,
April 22nd, 2010

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/computerized_front_running.php

While the SEC is busy investigating Goldman Sachs, it might want to look into another Goldman-dominated fraud: computerized front running using high-frequency trading programs.

Market commentators are fond of talking about “free market capitalism,” but according to Wall Street commentator Max Keiser, it is no more. It has morphed into what his TV co-host Stacy Herbert calls “rigged market capitalism”: all markets today are subject to manipulation for private gain.

Keiser isn’t just speculating about this. He claims to have invented one of the most widely used programs for doing the rigging. Not that that’s what he meant to invent. His patented program was designed to take the manipulation out of markets. It would do this by matching buyers with sellers automatically, eliminating “front running” – brokers buying or selling ahead of large orders coming in from their clients. The computer program was intended to remove the conflict of interest that exists when brokers who match buyers with sellers are also selling from their own accounts. But the program fell into the wrong hands and became the prototype for automated trading programs that actually facilitate front running.

Also called High Frequency Trading (HFT) or “black box trading,” automated program trading uses high-speed computers governed by complex algorithms (instructions to the computer) to analyze data and transact orders in massive quantities at very high speeds. Like the poker player peeking in a mirror to see his opponent’s cards, HFT allows the program trader to peek at major incoming orders and jump in front of them to skim profits off the top. And these large institutional orders are our money -- our pension funds, mutual funds, and 401Ks.

When “market making” (matching buyers with sellers) was done strictly by human brokers on the floor of the stock exchange, manipulations and front running were considered an acceptable (if morally dubious) price to pay for continuously “liquid” markets. But front running by computer, using complex trading programs, is an entirely different species of fraud. A minor flaw in the system has morphed into a monster. Keiser maintains that computerized front running with HFT has become the principal business of Wall Street and the primary force driving most of the volume on exchanges, contributing not only to a large portion of trading profits but to the manipulation of markets for economic and political ends.

The “Virtual Specialist”: the Prototype for High Frequency Trading:

Until recently, most market making was done by brokers called “specialists,” those people you see on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange haggling over the price of stocks. The job of the specialist originated over a century ago, when the need was recognized for a system for continuous trading. That meant trading even when there was no “real” buyer or seller waiting to take the other side of the trade.

The specialist is a broker who deals in a specific stock and remains at one location on the floor holding an inventory of it. He posts the “bid” and “ask” prices, manages “limit” orders, executes trades, and is responsible for managing the uninterrupted flow of orders. If there is a large shift in demand on the “buy” side or the “sell” side, the specialist steps in and sells or buys out of his own inventory to meet the demand, until the gap has narrowed.

This gives him an opportunity to trade for himself, using his inside knowledge to book a profit. That practice is frowned on by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), but it has never been seriously regulated, because it has been considered necessary to keep markets “liquid.”

Keiser’s “Virtual Specialist Technology” (VST) was developed for the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), a web-based, multiplayer simulation in which players use virtual money to buy and sell “shares” of actors, directors, upcoming films, and film-related options. The program determines the true market price automatically, by comparing “bids” with “asks” and weighting the proportion of each. Keiser and HSX co-founder Michael Burns applied for a patent for a “computer-implemented securities trading system with a virtual specialist function” in 1996, and U.S. patent no. 5960176 was awarded in 1999.

But things went awry after the dot.com crash, when Keiser’s company HSX Holdings sold the VST patent to investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald, over his objection. Cantor Fitzgerald then put the part of the program that would have eliminated front-running on ice, just as drug companies buy up competing patents in order to take them off the market. Instead of preventing front-running, the program was altered so that it actually enhanced that fraudulent practice. Keiser (who is now based in Europe) notes that this sort of patent abuse is illegal under European Intellectual Property law.

Meanwhile, the design of the VST program remained on display at the patent office, giving other inventors ideas. To get a patent, applicants must list “prior art” and then prove that their patent is an improvement in some way. The listing for Keiser’s patent shows that it has been referenced by 132 others involving automated program trading or HFT.

Since then, HFT has quickly come to dominate the exchanges. High frequency trading firms now account for 73% of all U.S. equity trades, although they represent only 2% of the approximately 20,000 firms in operation.

In 1998, the SEC allowed online electronic communication networks, or alternative trading systems, to become full-fledged stock exchanges. Alternative trading systems (ATS) are computer-automated order-matching systems that offer exchange-like trading opportunities at lower costs but are often subject to lower disclosure requirements and different trading rules. Computer systems automatically match buy and sell orders that were themselves submitted through computers. Market making that was once done with a “specialist’s book” -- something that could be examined and audited -- is now done by an unseen, unaudited “black box.”

For over a century, the stock market was a real market, with live traders hotly bidding against each other on the floor of the exchange. In only a decade, floor trading has been eliminated in all but the largest exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE); and even in those markets, it now co-exists with electronic trading.

Alternative trading systems allow just about any sizable trader to place orders directly in the market, rather than routing them through investment dealers on the NYSE. They also allow any sizable trader with a sophisticated HFT program to front run trades.

Flash Trades: How the Game Is Rigged:

An integral component of computerized front running is a dubious practice called “flash trades.” Flash orders are permitted by a regulatory loophole that allows exchanges to show orders to some traders ahead of others for a fee. At one time, the NYSE allowed specialists to benefit from an advance look at incoming orders; but it has now replaced that practice with a “level playing field” policy that gives all investors equal access to all price quotes. Some ATSs, however, which are hotly competing with the established exchanges for business, have adopted the use of flash trades to pull trading business away from the exchanges. An incoming order is revealed (or flashed) to a trader for a fraction of a second before being sent to the national market system. If the trader can match the best bid or offer in the system, he can then pick up that order before the rest of the market sees it.

The flash peek reveals the trade coming in but not the limit price – the maximum price at which the buyer or seller is willing to trade. This is what the HFT program figures out, and it is what gives the high-frequency trader the same sort of inside information available to the traditional market maker: he now gets to peek at the other player’s cards. That means high-frequency traders can do more than just skim hefty profits from other investors. They can actually manipulate markets.

How this is done was explained by Karl Denninger in an insightful post on Seeking Alpha in July 2009:

“Let’s say that there is a buyer willing to buy 100,000 shares of BRCM with a limit price of $26.40. That is, the buyer will accept any price up to $26.40. But the market at this particular moment in time is at $26.10, or thirty cents lower.

“So the computers, having detected via their ‘flash orders’ (which ought to be illegal) that there is a desire for Broadcom shares, start to issue tiny (typically 100 share lots) ‘immediate or cancel’ orders - IOCs - to sell at $26.20. If that order is ‘eaten’ the computer then issues an order at $26.25, then $26.30, then $26.35, then $26.40. When it tries $26.45 it gets no bite and the order is immediately canceled.

“Now the flush of supply comes at, big coincidence, $26.39, and the claim is made that the market has become ‘more efficient.’

“Nonsense; there was no ‘real seller’ at any of these prices! This pattern of offering was intended to do one and only one thing -- manipulate the market by discovering what is supposed to be a hidden piece of information -- the other side’s limit price!

“With normal order queues and flows the person with the limit order would see the offer at $26.20 and might drop his limit. But the computers are so fast that unless you own one of the same speed you have no chance to do this -- your order is immediately ‘raped’ at the full limit price! . . . [Y]ou got screwed for 29 cents per share which was quite literally stolen by the HFT firms that probed your book before you could detect the activity, determined your maximum price, and then sold to you as close to your maximum price as was possible.”

The ostensible justification for high-frequency programs is that they “improve liquidity,” but Denninger says, “Hogwash. They have turned the market into a rigged game where institutional orders (that’s you, Mr. and Mrs. Joe Public, when you buy or sell mutual funds!) are routinely screwed for the benefit of a few major international banks.”

In fact, high-frequency traders may be removing liquidity from the market. So argues John Daly in the U.K. Globe and Mail, citing Thomas Caldwell, CEO of Caldwell Securities Ltd.:

“Large institutional investors know that if they start trying to push through a large block of shares at a certain price – even if the block is broken into many small trades on several ATSs and markets -- they can trigger a flood of high-frequency orders that immediately move market prices to the institution’s disadvantage. . . . That’s why institutions have flocked to so-called dark pools operated by ATSs such as Instinet, and individual dealers like Goldman Sachs. The pools allow traders to offer prices without publicly revealing their identities and tipping their hand.”

Because these large, dark pools are opaque to other investors and to regulators, they inhibit the free and fair trade that depends on open and transparent auction markets to work.

The Notorious Market-Rigging Ringleader, Goldman Sachs:

Tyler Durden, writing on Zero Hedge, notes that the HFT game is dominated by Goldman Sachs, which he calls “a hedge fund in all but FDIC backing.” Goldman was an investment bank until the fall of 2008, when it became a commercial bank overnight in order to capitalize on federal bailout benefits, including virtually interest-free money from the Fed that it can use to speculate on the opaque ATS exchanges where markets are manipulated and controlled.

Unlike the NYSE, which is open only from 10 am to 4 pm EST daily, ATSs trade around the clock; and they are particularly busy when the NYSE is closed, when stocks are thinly traded and easily manipulated. Tyler Durden writes:

“[A]s the market keeps going up day in and day out, regardless of the deteriorating economic conditions, it is just these HFT’s that determine the overall market direction, usually without fundamental or technical reason. And based on a few lines of code, retail investors get suckered into a rising market that has nothing to do with green shoots or some Chinese firms buying a few hundred extra Intel servers: HFTs are merely perpetuating the same ponzi market mythology last seen in the Madoff case, but on a massively larger scale.”

HFT rigging helps explain how Goldman Sachs earned at least $100 million per day from its trading division, day after day, on 116 out of 194 trading days through the end of September 2009. It’s like taking candy from a baby, when you can see the other players’ cards.

Reviving the Free Market:

So what can be done to restore free and fair markets? A step in the right direction would be to prohibit flash trades. The SEC is proposing such rules, but they haven’t been effected yet.

Another proposed check on HFT is a Tobin tax – a very small tax on every financial trade. Proposals for the tax range from .005% to 1%, so small that it would hardly be felt by legitimate “buy and hold” investors, but high enough to kill HFT, which skims a very tiny profit from a huge number of trades.

That is what proponents contend, but a tiny tax might not actually be enough to kill HFT. Consider Denninger’s example, in which the high-frequency trader was making not just a few pennies but a full 29 cents per trade and had an opportunity to make this sum on 99,500 shares (100,000 shares less 5 100-lot trades at lesser sums). That’s a $28,855 profit on a $2.63 million trade, not bad for a few milliseconds of work. Imposing a .1% Tobin tax on the $2.63 million would reduce the profit to $26,225, but that’s still a nice return for a trade that takes less time than blinking.

The ideal solution would fix the problem at its source -- the price-setting mechanism itself. Keiser says this could be done by banning HFT and installing his VST computer program in its original design in all the exchanges. The true market price would then be established automatically, foreclosing both human and electronic manipulation. He notes that the shareholders of his former firm have a good claim for voiding out the sale to Cantor Fitzgerald and retrieving the program, since the deal was never consummated and the investors in HSX Holdings have never received a penny for the sale.

There is just one problem with their legal claim: the paperwork proving it was shipped to Cantor Fitzgerald’s offices in the World Trade Center several months before September 2001. Like free market capitalism itself, it seems, the evidence has gone up in smoke.

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

Here is the end of the week analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, with comments about important economic reports due out next week...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman

The Predatory Partnership of Wall Street and the State:

* April 23, 2010

http://www.oilprice.com/article-the-predatory-partnership-of-wall-street-and-the-state-303.html

The Central State and Financial Plutocracy are bound in a mutually beneficial, highly predatory partnership.

The Mainstream Media is missing the Big Story in the SEC/Goldman Sachs filing: the Central State needs the predatory "too big to fail" investment bankers to churn out the credit, leverage and insider deals the State needs to survive in an era of exponentially rising debt.

There are adverse ethical and financial consequences of this partnership; in the short-term, the rot has been papered over, and simulacrum "reforms" to sooth public anger will be passed. But the partners each depend on the other for their very existence, and threatening one threatens both.

Two long-time contributors recently checked in with insightful commentaries on this issue. We start with Zeus Y.:

I'm sad to say, I find myself agreeing with your comments about gaming the system becoming the system. The WSJ article you cited (An Economy of Liars) uses a libertarian argument to push for deregulation with enforcement of key staples/norms of capitalism. However, if enforcement is captured by the same forces that give rise to crony capitalism, which is an elephant in the room the current "reform" bill fails to address, neither regulation nor de-regulation will matter. Regulation will be ignored because there are no enforcements or consequences. De-regulation will only allow market mechanisms to be more distorted and shrouded. This is what people talk about when they say "regulatory capture."

But when you have "capture of culture" so that norms are so skewed as to bail out the perfidious and punish the responsible, how can one expect healing and growth of the economy? That is what we have now, and taking a pain pill in the form of borrowing or lowering interest rates will not address the underlying disease. Indeed as with taking pain relievers to cover up the pains caused by a devastating disease, you will only ensure your demise. We require not only transparency and accountability but awareness and viable responses about what to do, not only with the fraud and its perpetrators, but the damage they have left in their wake once we turn up the rot.

This is why no one seems interested in real investigation, enforcement, justice, fairness, or even free enterprise at all. They sense the rot and don't want to be pinned with cleaning it up once they are made aware. Our own landlords will not sign on for a free lead test for our house by the county with our two-year old in it, because if they knew, they would have to be responsible and disclose this fact to future renters. They simply will not agree to do it because short-term self-interest is more important than doing the right thing. Short-term self-interest, for them, has become the "right thing." The moral decay is evident, and that is what really makes your assessment uneasingly accurate. If there is one thing we have learned is that people without moral guidance will only see what they are incentivized to see in terms of their short term personal interest.

Without a moral compass, short term, cannabalistic greed presides, and I have not known any economy to thrive on that premise for long. I don't know what form the downfall takes, but until we give a hoot about something greater than our personal fear and comfort we can assure that we keep falling.

Thank you, Zeus. Next up, Harun I. who refers to this chart I recently posted, which shows total credit as a percentage of U.S. GDP exceeds the extremes of World war II.



Here is Harun's commentary:

I couldn't help but wonder how people thought this would turn out? Did they really believe that coming out of college with a student loan the size of a mortgage for an education in basket weaving would leave them discretionary income or a balance sheet that was able to expand much further (I have a family member with $80,000 in student loans for a degree in journalism. She cannot afford the payments with her salary so what does she do? She defers the payments while she runs up more debt going to grad school! Insanity at its finest).

Of course upward mobility is stunted proportionate to the level of debt carried, debt is a claim on future earnings. What did they think would happen when they bought into a monetary system that demands that future demand be brought forward on a compounding basis? Did they not understand that this must come at the expense of future generations?

More to the point, in a sphere of finite resources, who thought or thinks that consumption at an exponential rate and therefore depletion at an exponential rate would leave room for future generations to keep consuming more? Only someone disconnected from reality could think this could continue indefinitely. But that is what mass manias and delusions are all about.

Is it any wonder that the 1% are doing so well? They are the writers of the debt everyone else is buying...and we allow them to do this without a dime of their own capital. As an aside, I am completely confounded that the majority of the retail market buys options when over 80% of options expire worthless. Who do they think is writing the majority of those options? Institutions and the very wealthy are writing those options. And when those options even look like they may produce a loss for the writers the sheer power of their actions protecting those positions makes sure they expire worthless. But the public willingly continues to take the long odds. The masses keep buying the debt and the long odds, do not understand the rules of the game and wonder why they are losing.

Buying a home does not make one wealthy because home equity does not really exist. All of this has been one grand illusion that has turned into a slow motion train wreck as it hits the immovable object of reality. How can it be that a home is the "middle class generator of wealth" when 66% of people retire into poverty and 65% of Americans are homeowners? I know of all the elegant equations but the simple fact is that they are not borne out in reality.

If I sell a stock, bond, or commodity I can take that money and do as I please. I don't have to downsize my standard of living or borrow (encumber future earnings) to get at the equity in those instruments. A house is a peculiar beast in terms of "equity". It either has to be sold and its occupant goes to live in a much smaller dwelling in order to enjoy the "equity", or one must borrow (create a liability) to get at that "equity". Either way the standard of living will decline. Therefore, I find the notion of home "equity" quite absurd.

People in general need to educate themselves on Present Value. They must understand its implications to what their money is worth now and at any point in the future. When they do, a much clearer picture will arise pertaining to debt, interest rates, inflation and "equity".

I would like to see the "too big to fail" institutions fail but when the reality of what that means starts to impact pensions and 401K's, federal, state, and municipal income streams, and it is realized that the government cannot borrow enough to support a destitute population, I think the 99% will sing a different tune.

The more I watch this debacle the more I am convinced that Cheney's "deficits don't matter" comment was not arrogance but candor based upon his understanding of the futility of the situation.

Additional commentary 2

It is essential (in a Ponzi scheme) that there be ever growing amounts of new capital to make payouts. Remember, not too long ago everyone was crooning about growth. Every fraud and swindle was counted as GDP growth, now we are beginning to realize that it was all one big fraud.

Bernanke tells us point blank in his famous helicopter speech that he can "theoretically" make us spend by making it unprofitable to save. Greenspan spoke of the "global savings glut" that caused the bubbles. Pensions, 401K's, sovereign wealth funds are all pools of savings that had to be eaten to keep the debt as money scheme expanding. And with high quality risk exhausted there had to be a way to sell the low quality risk.

If we want to understand, very clearly, the rise and fall of the middle class and how debt has affected this, all we need to do is look at the Credit Market Debt as a Percentage GDP you recently posted. The post WW II bull market that ended in 1968 occurred with very low debt levels and the middle class thrived. The 1982 -2000 bull market saw debt levels soar and the middle class lost ground (it took two incomes and high levels of debt to accomplish what once took one income and very low levels of debt).

Two financial WMD's have gone off in less than a decade and from a logarithmic perspective it just looks like a mild consolidation when, in real terms, stocks and bonds have lost more than half their purchasing power and still are not at their historic relative lows. Structurally, debt is proportionately higher that at the start of the Great Depression and getting worse at an increasing rate, unemployment, if recorded properly would be exploding, and government spending (expanding debt) is the only driver of GDP. Fraud is now a way of life, it is SOP.

There is not enough money in the hands of consumers to create the stupendous growth that is required by all the obligations (entitlements) that have been created. It is not a matter of desire, it is a matter of capability. We cannot produce and consume enough at a rate necessary to keep up with exponentially exploding entitlements. CDO and CDS, before they were given legal certainty in the CFMA of 2000, went from about $60 billion to over $600 trillion. Without this explosion of credit money system death would have occurred some time ago. We need the tremendous leverage that only Wall Street can create to keep from this farce from disintegrating rapidly. If not, we have what we have now: an exploding public balance sheet.

In the post industrial age in a country that produces nothing but hands out entitlements to everybody how do you generate returns to satisfy this? Not only is GS necessary to maintain status quo but so are the rest of the TBTF banks. In the end this will fail spectacularly, it has already started. The end game is the Casino Economy where gaming the system is the way to produce returns needed (at least for a time) to maintain our illusory state. Just think, after the greatest credit expansion in history, we are still broke and continuing to lose ground.

Thank you, Harun. Here is a bonus chart of the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average, which shows the Bull Market of the last decade was as illusory as the "prosperity" built on the sand of home equity lines of credit and bogus mortgage-backed securities.