Monday, September 6, 2010

Update - The S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/

What a week it was!...Not many expected the market to rally like it did (least of all me), but there was good money to be made last week if you went with the trend...

So...All of a sudden, we're getting great news from just about every economic report put out by the government, with upward revisions to previous months numbers...LOL...

I guess the powers that be didn't want the market to tank below critical support levels it was flirting with at the end of the previous week, so the Plunge Protection Team was ordered to work overtime...For those of you who don't know what the PPT is, there are four links at the bottom of this post that will give you an idea of what they do...

Basically the PPT (mainly Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan) buys S&P eMini Futures as a way to prop up the market...The Dems really don't want to see the market crash just before a mid-term election, so they're pumping up the propaganda machine by putting out rosy economic reports with even rosier revisions to previous months numbers...And they have ordered the PPT to keep the $SPX well above 1010. by any means necessary...Everyone knows that if the $SPX breaks below the 1010. support level it will dump fast and furious towards the 875-925 zone...

So with the PPT and the propaganda machine running at full tilt the next two months before the election, anything can happen and it's a fools game to try to make predictions about the market's future movements because of all of this...

But let's take a look at last week's technicals anyway...There are two daily charts and a weekly chart below that have my comments on them that are self explanatory...The Economic Calendar below the charts shows that there are not many potentially market moving reports due out next week...It is one of the slowest weeks for economic reports in quite a while, and there are also very few important earnings reports due out next week...And that makes me wonder what the catalysts will be that can move our markets in the coming week?...Maybe news from Asia or the Euro zone?...

Below the charts are some news releases put out this week that show how bogus some of the economic reports were, and that the real numbers were not as rosy as the propaganda machine would have us believe...

Here's the daily chart with my primary indicators on it...

I just saw my blog on a 19 inch monitor for the first time at a friends house (I have four 23 inch monitors), and noticed that the right side of the charts are cut off...Next time I post charts, I'll have to pick a smaller size before I start to put comments onto them...

For those of you with 19 inch (or smaller) monitors, I've included the URL to the images above the charts...
http://images.investorshub.advfn.com/images/uploads/2010/9/4/jpfmuCCI.JPG



Here is another daily chart with my secondary indicators...

http://images.investorshub.advfn.com/images/uploads/2010/9/4/kulepRSI.JPG



Here is the weekly chart that has done a 180 degree flip-flop, from being extremely bearish two Friday's ago, to being way more bullish than bearish at the end of this week...

http://images.investorshub.advfn.com/images/uploads/2010/9/4/cnoetWEEKLY.JPG



Here is a chart pattern the Bulls would like to see develop this fall:

http://images.investorshub.advfn.com/images/uploads/2010/9/5/[jlusIHS.JPG



As I already mentioned, the Economic Calendar for next week is a light one...The market is closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day...The only red star for an American report is the International Trade numbers that come out an hour before the opening bell on Thursday...



Here are some interesting articles that came out this week, most of them relating to the jobs situation report for August...My only comment is that the unemployment rate ROSE from 9.5% to 9.6% in August, and they go into more detail in the first two articles...

Don't kid yourselves folks!...One up week because of good news out of China, and some manipulated manufacturing and jobs reports at home do not make for a strong recovery...Reality will settle in again soon in my opinion...The huge move up on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday is NOT sustainable!...It moved much too far-too fast, and much too vertical of a move, and it can drop back down to where it came from just as quickly or faster...It's all up to which strings the puppeteers feel like pulling next week...

Happy Trading! next week...
and to all of us Americans,
have a Safe and Happy Labor Day!!!...

zigzagman
Tom

Here are some interesting articles from this week that describe how bogus the economic reports were this week, especially the jobs numbers:

The Long Road to Recovery:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=527

7 Weak Spots In The Employment Report:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-7-weak-spots-in-the-employment-report-2010-9

5 Key Lessons in August's Jobs Report:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-Key-Lessons-in-Augusts-Jobs-usnews-1660270043.html?x=0

Despite hiring, US unemployment rate seems frozen:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Despite-hiring-US-apf-780694354.html?x=0

ICI Mutual Fund Statistics:
http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/09/ici-mutual-fund-statistics.html

Here are four links that describe the PPT:

Do a Google Search for yourself to see how many hits there are about this subject...I just picked a few at random, because I've done my research on the subject over a number of years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/economy/commentary-mainmenu-43/2715-stock-rally-due-to-ppt-conspiracy

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cnbc-guest-says-absent-plunge-protection-team-stepping-market-would-fall-wien-kernan-disgust

http://tobefree.wordpress.com/2010/05/08/secrets-of-the-plunge-protection-team-reagans-executive-order-12631-working-group-on-financial-markets-author-warned-in-2004-get-out-of-the-markets-before-the-inflated-derivative-bubble-burs/



Saturday, August 28, 2010

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

This video is viewed best in Full-Screen Mode...Click the four arrows in the bottom right corner...Press the Escape key on your keyboard to exit back to Normal Mode...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman





Thursday, August 26, 2010

Update - Thursday's S&P 500 Daily Chart - Broke Below Support Again:

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/

Today the $SPX daily chart broke below the old support level of 1050.47 from June 7th on a closing basis, with a close today of 1047.22 That means there are NO more support levels all the way down to the 1020. level set back in early July.

Which way the market moves will depend on three important economic reports due out tomorrow. Two of them come out an hour before the opening bell, with the second read of 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) followed by the bi-monthly read on Consumer Sentiment. Both of these reports are important, and are potential market movers, but Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking on the economic outlook at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference a half hour after the opening bell is even more important.

All ears will be tuned into his comments, especially after his statement about the economy a while back where he characterized it as "unusually uncertain". That led up to his weak attempt at QE2, which the market reacted very badly to. Does the Fed have any more tricks up it's sleeve to help bolster the failing recovery? It appears to me the Fed is out of bullets, and is shooting blanks these days.

If the market does not like what he has to say tomorrow, we'll see 1020. on the $SPX in the very near future, even though it is totally oversold and the RSI is very close to 30 where buyers normally step in for a quick oversold rally. Tomorrow should be an interesting end to the week.

Happy Trading!...
zigzagman/chartaholic
Tom



(The comment for the MACD in red should have as a last word "but it's a lagging indicator"...)

My Fidelity Active Trader Pro daily chart for the $SPX shows that it has closed below the 5MA for six sessions in a row. The three money indicators at the top look very weak. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has dropped below the zero line for the first time in a month and a half, On Balance Volume (OBV), and the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line are all downticking sharply. Both the green and red DI lines of the ADX are neutral since they are both downticking, and so is the RSI which isn't showing any noticeable divergences. The ADX itself (black line) is upticking, showing that the downtrend is strengthening.

Overall, this chart looks very Bearish at this point, but as usual, it's all about tomorrow's economic reports and what Helicopter Ben has to say from Jackson Hole, WY. starting at 10am Eastern time...





Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Update - Tuesday's S&P 500 Daily Chart:

Here are two charts that show how the S&P 500 has fared so far this week...

http://stockmarketchartanalyst.blogspot.com/

The notations on the chart speak for themselves...







Sunday, August 22, 2010

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://www.viddler.com/explore/zigzagman/videos/32/

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

This video is viewed best in Full-Screen Mode...Click the four arrows in the bottom right corner...Press the Escape key on your keyboard to exit back to Normal Mode...

(and by the way...It was Home Depot and WalMart's (not McDonalds) earnings reports that gave the market a lift early last week...)

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman



Thursday, August 19, 2010

Update - Thursday's S&P 500 Daily Chart:

The post I put out Monday after the closing bell has been verified by today's weak economic reports. The economy is not recovering as well a we had hoped it would, and my Bearish stance is confirmed even more by today's data:

"U.S. stocks tumbled to their lowest close in nearly a month on Thursday as the latest batch of data amplified concerns the economy is stuck in neutral.

The selloff was broad, with five stocks falling for every one rising on the New York Stock Exchange. Sectors most sensitive to growth were hit hardest.

A report showing factory activity in the mid-Atlantic states contracted in August for the first time since July 2009 blind-sided investors, who had been expecting activity to increase. Earlier, the Labor Department said first-time claims for jobless benefits rose to a nine-month high."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SP-500-Nasdaq-fall-2-rb-40862475.html?x=0





Monday, August 16, 2010

Update - Monday's S&P 500 Daily Chart:

The lower wick of today's candlestick tagged the lower Bollinger Band like I predicted in this weekend's video, and rallied fairly strongly during the afternoon...The only problem is today's lack of Volume...It was the lowest Volume day this four month chart shows!...So in my opinion, it isn't a very convincing attempt at digging itself out of a hole...For the moment, the lower Bollinger Band is upticking, but if it starts down again that will be a sign or trouble for the Bulls...

The support level at 1100 from late July has already been breached, and if the support level from mid-July at 1060 gets taken out I'm fairly certain that the $SPX will go down to test the 1010 level of support from the beginning of July...If or when that level of support fails, I'm predicting it will fall to between 925-950 before bouncing on an Oversold Rally...

The fast line of Stochastics hit very Oversold territory, and the fast line did turn up ever so slightly today...But the CCI did not uptick, and the Histogram of the MACD took another sharp downtick, along with both the fast and slow line...So what if the market barely closed positive today?...The indicators say it was a down day!...And Stochastics being Oversold can go on for a very long time...Just look at how Overbought the market was for months as it rallied off the March '09 lows...



One of my students asked me why I don't analyze the monthly chart?...I do, but since I'm a free member of stockcharts.com, I can only get daily and weekly charts...And I'm basically a very short-term trader, and all of my trades are Day Trades that usually only last an hour or two at most...Buy & Hold is obviously not working these days, as the market is right back where it was ten years ago...

Here is a four year/weekly chart of the $SPX I drew up yesterday, that shows a repeating pattern of three bearish Head & Shoulders chart patterns, and one bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders where the head (bottom) was put in last March 6th...This chart to me signals we are about to enter another serious downtrend sometime in the near future...It's obvious that the US recovering has stalled out, unemployment hasn't improved, consumer confidence and spending are low, and China and Japan are slowing down too...

Add to that the uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East this week, as Russia gets ready to load nuclear fuel rods into Iran's first atomic power plant which will eventually yield weapons grade uranium...There is the possibility that WWIII may be coming to a theater near us soon if Israel attacks Iran like they did when Iraq tried to do the same thing...And let's not forget the tension surrounding North Korea lately, and the deteriorating situation in the European Union...It appears there's all kinds of trouble on the horizon from many different areas...

Add all of the many negatives together, and it looks like the market will be headed down...That's what the Fundamentals and the Technicals are saying to me...Of course, that's just my humble opinion...I mean really...What kind of good news can we possible get that will make the market go up right now?...



Here is one more look at a chart from this weekend's video that shows the final Head & Shoulders from the chart above...It sure looks to me like the market is starting to roll over...



Good Luck to all...
zigzagman



Saturday, August 14, 2010

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://www.viddler.com/explore/zigzagman/videos/31/

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

This week's video is more than twice as long the usual eleven minutes, because I feel a major turning point occured in the market this week...

This video is viewed best in Full-Screen Mode...Click the four arrows in the bottom right corner...Press the Escape key on your keyboard to exit back to Normal Mode...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman





Tuesday, August 10, 2010

A Plea for Freedom:

http://www.infowars.com/a-plea-for-freedom/

THIS IS A MUST READ!!!...IMO

It's one of the best articles I've read all year...



Sunday, August 8, 2010

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:

http://www.viddler.com/explore/zigzagman/videos/30/

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

This video is viewed best in Full-Screen Mode...Click the four arrows in the bottom right corner...Press the Escape key on your keyboard to exit back to Normal Mode...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman





Sunday, August 1, 2010

VIDEO - Fundamental & Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's Daily & Weekly Charts:


http://www.viddler.com/explore/zigzagman/videos/29/

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500's daily and weekly charts, plus a look at the important Economic and Earnings Reports due out next week...

This video is viewed best in Full-Screen Mode...Click the four arrows in the bottom right corner...Press the Escape key on your keyboard to exit back to Normal Mode...

Happy Trading this week...
zigzagman






Wednesday, July 28, 2010

My Primary Sell Signal on the $SPX May Kick In Tomorrow - IF it's Another Down Day...


My Secondary Sell Signal was given today by the $SPX closing a fraction below the 5MA...The CCI downticked sharply today, and IF tomorrow is another down day, my Primary Sell Signal will be given when the CCI crosses below the +100 line...Today's candlestick was another Doji, though not a perfect one since the body is a bit on the large side, but the upper and lower wicks are of equal length...Volume was anemic today, and a down day on much stronger Volume would have been more convincing so that a call of another down day on Thursday would be much easier to call...Stochastics is still in Overbought territory near 90, and the fast line crossing down through the slow line today is somewhat Bearish...The MACD Histogram downticked for the second day in a row, and it's fast line leveled off for the first time in a week and a half...If tomorrow is another down day on higher Volume, my first target is down to the 15MA at 1089. and if that Support level fails the next target is the middle Bollinger Band at 1075. where it may find Support there...If the market rallies tomorrow, and the Index rises above Monday's intraday high Resistance level and looks like it will close there, the Bulls will be showing that they are in charge...See my notes on Fundamental Analysis below the chart...



Today's surprisingly negative Durable Goods Orders numbers and the weak Beige Book report from the Fed showed much more weakness in the economy than analysts expected...Analysts predicted that the Durable Goods number would come in a +1%, and it came in at -1%...

Orders for big-ticket goods fall 1 percent in June: http://tinyurl.com/34v5nlr

Dow ends 4-day win streak on Fed economic report: http://tinyurl.com/32f85rm

The Fed survey followed a disappointing Commerce Department durable goods orders report early in the day. Orders for durable goods, which are expected to last at least three years, fell 1 percent in June. Economists expected a 1 percent gain.

Investors have been trying in recent weeks to balance strong earnings and corporate outlooks with economic data that isn't as encouraging. A drop in consumer confidence Tuesday helped push stocks mostly lower although another batch of robust earnings reports came out.

Earnings reports were mixed Wednesday. Boeing Co. said its profit slipped from a year ago, but results still topped expectations. The airplane maker also didn't adjust its outlook.

Tomorrow's potential market moving events will be the weekly Jobless Claims number to be released an hour before the opening bell:

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html

And a slew of earning reports from a number of Fortune 500 companies listed on the $SPX:



To see the full list of companies reporting earnings tomorrow, follow this link:

http://thestreet.ccbn.com/earning.asp?client=thestreet&date=20100429

Investors are really looking to the first read of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 2nd Quarter on Friday - an hour before the opening bell...If you recall, the first read of 1st Quarter GDP came in at 3.2%, the second read at 3.0%, and the final read settled at only 2.7%...

And it looks like the Consensus number for the first read of 2nd Quarter Real GDP will come in at 2.5%: (click on the "Consensus" button just below "GDP" on Friday's listings anytime before the report is released)

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html



H.R. 5741 Slave Bill Now in Committee:

Slavery has a new name: “Mandatory Service” - Introduced July 15th 2010 by Rep. Charles Rangle (D).

(If Americans sit still for this, then they deserve to be slaves...)

Rob Dew - July 26, 2010

http://www.prisonplanet.com/h-r-5741-slave-bill-now-in-committee.html

H.R. 5741 will give the president the authority “To require all persons in the United States between the ages of 18 and 42 to perform national service, either as a member of the uniformed services or in civilian service in furtherance of the national defense and homeland security, to authorize the induction of persons in the uniformed services during wartime to meet end-strength requirements of the uniformed services, and for other purposes.”

Barely a year after introducing H.R. 1444, which was supposed to form a “Congressional Commission on Civic Service to study methods of improving and promoting volunteerism and national service, and for other purposes”, Congress has upped the ante.

Anyone between 18 and 42 will be eligible for a two year commitment of civilian or military service.

With more college graduates working for the fast food industry, a depression era unemployment rate and less people retiring; the government will have plenty of eligible able bodies to move into the slave ranks.

This echos the sentiment of President Obama who asked Congress in Febuary 2009 to send him a bipartisan bill in the spirit of national service. His Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel outlined a similar plan in his book The Plan.

But even Emanuel aims low looking at only 18 to 25 year olds for three months of compulsory service. Under this new legislation nearly all, able bodied Americans will be sentenced to two years of forced labor.

The infrastructure is already in place for those unwilling to participate in mandatory service and now the army is looking to fill it’s ranks with Interment/Resettlement Specialists.

There are very few loopholes to opt of out national service, even CONSCIENTIOUS OBJECTORS (SEC. 109) will be forced to choose the mandatory option of A. noncombatant service (as defined by the President) or B. national civilian service. It seems the congressional commission on civic service will no longer be needed thanks to the hard work of a suspected Congressional tax cheat from New York.

The slavery bill is currently in debate in the House Committee on Armed Services chaired by Rep Ike Skelton a democrat from Missouri. Those who oppose mandatory slavery should contact Rep. Skelton. Many bills die in committee and this bill should meet the same fate.



Tuesday, July 27, 2010

It looks like the $SPX is getting a bit Toppy here:

Today's candlestick is a perfectly formed Doji, and that can signal one of two things...It can signal a potential reversal to the downside, or a moment of indecision in an uptrend...Yesterday it closed a fraction above the 200 Moving Average (which should be a level of Resistance along with the Resistance levels set in the same area from June 16-21), and today it closed a fraction below it...If the upper Bollinger Band was flat or pointing down, this call for a pullback would be that much easier, but since it is upticking sharply there is about ten points it can move before it hits resistance at the upper BB...The candles are well above the 5 Moving Average, and the day it closes below the 5MA is when a pullback will be a certainty...



The CCI downticked slightly today, and when it crosses back down through the +100 line is when my Sell Signal kicks in...When the candle closes below the 5MA, the CCI usually gives my Sell Signal the same day...Volume diminished on Friday and Monday even as the price moved higher, and that shows that the rally was running out of steam...Today's Volume was a bit higher than previous sessions on a day the $SPX was down...Fast Stochastics show the fast line has crossed down through the slow line, and is still Overbought with a reading of 88.90 And the MACD Histogram had a slight downtick today, but the fast and slow lines are still upticking...

Tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET the Durable Goods Orders report will be released, and this report has the potential to move the market in the pre-market and the regular sessions...

Market Consensus Before Announcement:

Durable goods orders in May declined a revised 0.6 percent after jumping 2.9 percent in April. Excluding the transportation component, however, new durable orders rebounded a revised 0.6 percent, following a 0.9 percent decrease in April. The big negative in the report was the transportation component which dropped 6.9 percent in May-tugged down by a 29.6 percent plunge in the volatile nondefense aircraft subcomponent. Advances were widespread in other components. Looking ahead, we may see some softening in the underlying trend for new orders. The new orders index in the ISM manufacturing report eased to 58.5 in June from 65.7 in May, with 50 being breakeven. But a rebound in aircraft likely will boost the headline number.

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html

Earnings reports from these S&P 500 companies will be released tomorrow:



The $SPX will be influenced by the Durable Goods Orders report, and by all of the companies in the Index that report earnings tomorrow...There are many more companies reporting earnings tomorrow that will have an effect on how the Index moves...For a full list of all S&P 500 companies that report earnings tomorrow, click on the link below:

http://thestreet.ccbn.com/earning.asp?client=thestreet&date=20100728



Sunday, July 25, 2010

Democrats Call Off Climate Bill Effort:


By Carl Hulse and David M. Herszenhorn

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/23/us/politics/23cong.html?ref=science&pagewanted=print

WASHINGTON — The effort to advance a major climate change bill through the Senate this summer collapsed Thursday even as President Obama signed into law another top Democratic priority — a bill to restore unemployment benefits for millions of Americans who have been out of work for six months or more.

Bowing to political reality, Senator Harry Reid, the Nevada Democrat and majority leader, said the Senate would not take up legislation intended to reduce carbon emissions blamed as a cause of climate change, but would instead pursue a more limited measure focused on responding to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and tightening energy efficiency standards.

“We know where we are,” Mr. Reid told reporters after reviewing the state of energy legislation with Senate Democrats and administration officials. “We know that we don’t have the votes.”

The decision was a major disappointment to conservation groups and lawmakers who had invested months in trying to negotiate legislation. The House last year passed its own climate change bill, a proposal that has created a backlash for some politically vulnerable Democrats. The outcome was also viewed as a setback by some utility executives who had hoped that Congress would set predictable rules governing carbon pollution.

Carol M. Browner, director of the White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy, who appeared with Mr. Reid and Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who is a chief author of the climate bill, said the Obama administration was not happy but would support Mr. Reid’s decision.

“Obviously, everyone is disappointed that we do not yet have an agreement on comprehensive legislation,” she said.

Congressional and White House officials said the decision was a pragmatic move that could produce some legislation rather than bogging down the Senate over a bill that had no chance given strong opposition from most Republicans and some Democrats. They noted that the White House had acted on its own to raise fuel efficiency standards and had pushed the development of alternative fuels.

Democrats said the slimmer package would ensure that BP would pay for the cleanup of the gulf oil spill, and would promote further production of natural gas as well as the manufacturing of natural gas vehicles, especially big trucks. They said it would also tighten household energy efficiency requirements and increase financing of the Land and Water Conservation Fund.

But even the Senate’s ability to pass a bill with significant bipartisan elements before its scheduled August recess was in doubt given the intense focus on the November elections.

Separately on Thursday night the Senate rejected a House version of an emergency spending bill that also contained billions of dollars for domestic programs, including $10 billion to help states and local school districts avert teacher layoffs. Instead the Senate sent the House a version focused mainly on financing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

While Senate Democrats revised their energy plans, the House voted 272 to 152 to send Mr. Obama a $34 billion six-month extension of unemployment pay for Americans who had exhausted their standard 26 weeks of aid. Signing the measure hours later, Mr. Obama said it would “restore desperately needed assistance to two and a half million Americans who lost their jobs in the recession.”

The bill had been the subject of a partisan battle, with Democrats saying that the economic crisis was an emergency that justified deficit spending, while Republicans argued that the cost should not be added to the deficit.

“We want to help those who are struggling with the current economic slowdown,” said Representative Charles Boustany Jr., a Louisiana Republican. “But we also agree with the American people that new spending must be paid for.”

In the final vote, 31 Republicans joined 241 Democrats in supporting the measure. Voting against it were 142 Republicans and 10 Democrats.

Democrats called the Republican opposition shameful given the financial struggles of many families. The bill had been stalled since late May, and advanced in the Senate this week only with the arrival of a new Democratic senator to succeed the late Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia.

“It shouldn’t have been so hard,” said the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi of California.

John M. Broder contributed reporting.



Friday, July 23, 2010

The Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression is Unfolding – Slowly But Surely


July 18, 2010

http://www.munknee.com/2010/07/draft-worst-crisis-since-the-great-depression-parts-1-2/

It’s easy to lose perspective on where the global economy stands – to be confused by the daily deluge of information – so let’s look at the big-picture of where we are today. As an investor it can mean the difference between making and losing a lot of money. So let’s take a look and see where we are at and what events are unfolding - slowly but surely.

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com, provides below further reformatted and edited [..] excerpts from the Bryan Rich’s (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com) original articles* for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Rich goes on to say:

We have endured the sharpest fall in global economic activity since the Great Depression and one of the most threatening financial crises ever and, according to studies by the IMF, recoveries of past recessions with these dualities tend to be longer and slower than normal recoveries — typically around five years until economies sustainably resume trend growth. That means, if you mark the start of the recent crisis as late 2007, we’re less than three years in! Therefore, we should expect more bumps in the road ahead. Furthermore, history also shows us that financial crises are generally followed by sovereign debt crises, which is where we are now.

The 4 Stages of Sovereign Debt Crises:

Stage #1 - Burgeoning Deficits:

In a financial crisis government spending increases dramatically in attempts to stabilize the financial system and stimulate economic activity. Tax revenues fall, fiscal surpluses turn into deficits and economies with existing deficits keep piling it on – and that is just what is unfolding now.

The leading economies of the world have all seen their deficits shoot higher, some to record levels. In fact, the deficit spending that’s gone on in recent years can be summed up as follows: Over 40 percent of world GDP comes from countries that are running deficits in excess of 10 percent.

Stage #2 - Ballooning Debt:

When economies are contracting or even growing slowly, bringing these deficits back down to earth becomes an unenviable challenge. Governments have to make ends meet by turning to the markets. Then those burgeoned deficits turn into growing debt loads – and that is just what is unfolding now.

When debt reaches 80 percent of GDP threshold, the borrowing costs for governments starts ticking higher and so does the market scrutiny. The IMF says five of the top seven developed countries in the world will have debt levels exceeding 100 percent of GDP in the next four years.

Stage #3 - Credit Downgrades:

When deficits and debts rise and economic activity appears unlikely to curtail fiscal problems, the credit worthiness of the government falls under intense scrutiny. That’s when we see downgrades – and that is just what is unfolding now.

Greece’s sovereign debt rating has been downgraded to junk status. Spain has lost its AAA rating and the UK could lose its AAA status if its deficit isn’t addressed. Japan’s outlook has been cut to negative and rating agencies have even warned the U.S.

Stage #4 - Sovereign Debt Defaults:

This is the final and most deadly stage because downgrades only make the vicious cycle of weak economic activity and growing dependence on debt worse. When investors see more risk, they require more return [and, as such,] the borrowing costs for these troubled countries rise. Then it becomes harder to finance spending needs and harder to finance existing debt and that’s when we see defaults – and that is on the verge of unfolding.

When S&P downgraded Greece to junk status, it warned debt holders [that they] should be prepared to receive just 30 cents on the dollar… [in spite of the] $1 trillion rescue package committed by the EU and IMF. [Then there is] Spain, an economy that represents 12 percent of GDP for the euro zone, [which is] rumored to be next in line for a massive funding request.

In sum, a sovereign debt crisis has arrived – the fuel for contagion is fear – and unless governments can demonstrate they’re willing to take tough steps to reign in debt this crisis can spread quickly.

Currenncy Crises Are Likely Next:

History shows us that financial crises tend to be followed by sovereign debt crises – and that sovereign debt crises tend to lead to currency crises, i.e. a loss of confidence in countries’ currencies which is something we’ve seen very clearly in recent months with the euro. A study from MIT on historical currency crises lays their progression out as follows:

The Three Stages of a Currency Crisis:

Stage #1 - Loss of Confidence:

The number one cause of a currency crisis is when investors flee a currency because they expect it to be devalued – and when the euro zone stepped in and threatened to cough up $1 trillion dollars in an attempt to save the euro monetary union, it was a conscious decision to devalue the euro.

Stage #2 - Herding Mentality:

When it’s thought that investors are moving out of a currency, others follow. [A case in point is the euro which] currently is being shorted [moreso than ever before in history] and when the market is heavily positioned one way — and the fundamentals support it and an intentional devaluation appears underway — big institutions have to react. Put simply, they have too much to lose by getting caught the wrong way. As such, for example, Iran’s central bank has announced they will be diversifying euro exposure by trading into gold and U.S. dollars while China and the UK have shown a significant increased interest in owning U.S. dollars as opposed to euros.

Stage #3 - Contagion:

Contagion is a phenomenon in which a currency crisis in one country triggers crisis in other countries with similar weaknesses. A crisis that started in Dubai now confronts Greece, Spain, Portugal … and will likely spread to the UK, Japan and even the U.S.

Conclusion:

The day-to-day ebb and flow of economic data and news can be distracting. That’s why it’s important, especially with all that is going on, to keep the big picture in perspective. History shows us that a global recession when combined with a financial crisis tends to stifle economic activity longer than normal recessions. History also shows us that financial crises tend to lead to sovereign debt crises, which tend to lead to currency crises so, with that in mind, it’s fair to say that a V-shaped economic recovery has always been very unlikely.

We are going to see more shocks to the global economy, more challenges and more investors fleeing risky investments in favor of safe havens. [Got gold?]



Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Stocks rise as investors sort through mixed earnings; Apple scores but Yahoo falls short.


Seth Sutel and Bernard Condon, AP Business Writers, On Tuesday July 20, 2010, 5:04 pm

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors are trying to get a read on the economy using earnings reports. They're finding it's not so easy.

The result Tuesday was yet another erratic day of stock trading. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75 points after having fallen 140 in early trading in response to a series of disappointing revenue reports. Analysts were hard-pressed to come up with a reason for the turnaround. But trading was extremely light, and that tends to skew stock prices.

Analysts said some investors were getting a little more upbeat as they awaited earnings reports from Yahoo Inc. and Apple Inc. after the close. But those reports came in mixed, just like those from the many companies that have also reported second-quarter results. Apple's stock surged in after-hours trading, but Yahoo fell. Like IBM Corp., Johnson & Johnson and Goldman Sachs Inc., its revenue fell short of expectations.

Investors have been quick to sell on even a whiff of bad news. Early Tuesday, they were motivated by the reports from IBM, J&J and Goldman. Investors have been focusing on revenue rather than bottom-line earnings because of the link between companies' sales and the economy. If revenue is down because consumers aren't spending, that's a sign that the economy could remain weak.

Investors seem to have decided as Tuesday wore on that earnings didn't look quite as bad as they first thought. Analysts noted that Goldman's drop in revenue was similar to those reported by JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. Their revenue fell not because of a weak economy, but because their customers decided to avoid the financial markets' turbulence during the spring.

Some analysts said there were technical factors involved in the market's moves.

"Investors may have been anticipating the market heading back to early July lows so when it didn't fall apart in early trading, they slowly came back in," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group in Westport, Conn.

Those investors were looking at charts that track the movements of indicators including the Standard & Poor's 500. When the S&P reaches, or doesn't reach, a specific level, that can prompt investors to buy or sell.

It was hard to predict what turn trading might take Wednesday. Yahoo and Apple are considered indicators of the overall economy, but their mixed results weren't giving investors a clear-cut direction for stocks.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 75.53, or 0.7 percent, to 10,229.96. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 12.23, or 1.1 percent, to 1,083.48 and the Nasdaq composite index rose 24.26, or 1.1 percent, to 2,222.49.

Advancing stocks were ahead of losers by 4 to 1 on the NYSE, where volume came to an extremely light 1.1 biillion shares.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-are-higher-on-mixed-apf-1741651426.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=



Monday, July 19, 2010

Nothing Was Sacred: The Theft of the American Dream...




http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/phil-it-is-end-of-world-as-we-know-it.html

Posted by Jesse at 1:07 PM - July 17, 2010

America must decide what type of country it wishes to be, and then conform public and foreign policy to those ends, and not the other way around. Politicians have no right to subjugate the constitutional process of government to any foreign organization.

Secrecy, except in very select military matters, is repugnant to the health of a democratic government, and is almost always a means to conceal a fraud. Corporations are not people, and do not have the rights of individuals as such.

Banks are utilities for the rational allocation of capital created by savings, and as utilities deserve special protections. All else is speculation and gambling. In banking, simpler and more stable is better. Low cost rules, as excessive financialisation is a pernicious tax on the real economy.

Financial speculation, as opposed to entrepreneurial investment, creates little value, serving largely to transfer wealth from the many to the few, often by exploiting the weak, and corrupting the law. It does serve to identify and correct market inefficiencies, but this benefit is vastly overrated, because those are quickly eliminated. As such it should be allowed, but tightly regulated and highly taxed as a form of gambling.

When the oligarchy's enablers, hired help is the politer word, and assorted useful idiots ask, "But how then will we do this or that?" ask them back, "How did we do it twenty years ago?" Before the financial revolution and the descent into a bubble economy and a secretive and largely corrupted government with a GDP whose primary product is fraud.

Other nations, such as China, are surely acting for their own interests, and in many cases the interests of their people, much more diligently and effectively than the kleptocrats who are in power in Washington and New York these days. How then could we possibly subvert the Constitution and the welfare of the people to unelected foreign organizations? If this requires a greater reliance on self-sufficiency, then so be it. America is large enough to see to its own, as the others see to theirs.

Economics will not provide any answers in and of itself. Economics without an a priori policy and morality, without a guiding principle like the Constitution, is a heartless monster easily manipulated to say whatever one wishes it to say, if they are willing to pay enough economists to say it. Its reputation as a science is greatly exaggerated.

"Eliminating government" is a trap put forward by the plutocrats for those unable to reason except by prejudice, as they desire to exercise their power unimpeded by the rule of law. Once you knock down the protections and the safeguards in the name of reform, the wolves will turn on the public in an orgy of looting and exploitation. This is an old story, and sadly it often works.

Efficient markets hypothesis is almost as great a hoax as the benefits of globalization and 'free trade' have been to the American people as a whole. These things are promoted by the few, at the expense of the gullible many, for their own personal benefit.

Hatred, mean spiritedness, and resentment of the weak, the old, the different, is a trick played on the masses by oligarchs and would be dictators from time immemorial. They play to the darker side of the crowd. It is a trap, and the means to the demise of freedom. And these tricksters play it well, because deceit is their specialty, their stock in trade.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." - Mohandas K. Gandhi

So it will not be easy, and it is a mistake to think that it will be. But what greater task can we set ourselves to, other than justice and freedom for ourselves and children?


It’s the End of the World As We Know It:

By Phil of Phil’s Stock World

What are 308,367,109 Americans supposed to do?



First of all, despite clamping down on immigration, our population grew by 2.6M people last year. Unfortunately, not only did we not create jobs for those 2.6M new people but we lost about 4M jobs so what are these new people going to do? Not only that, but nobody is talking about the another major job issue: People aren’t retiring! They can’t afford to because the economy is bad – that means there are even less job openings… The pimply faced kid can’t get a job delivering pizza because his grandpa’s doing it.

There are some brilliant pundits who believe cutting retirement benefits will fix our economy. How will that work exactly? Pay old people less money, don’t cover their medical care and what happens? Then they need money. If they need money, they need to work and if they need to work they increase the supply of labor, which reduces wages and leaves all 308,367,109 of us with less money. Oh sorry, not ALL 308,367,109 – just 308,337,109 – the top 30,000 (0.01%) own the business the other 308,337,109 work at and they will be raking it in because labor is roughly 1/3 of the cost of doing business in America and our great and powerful capitalists have already cut their manufacturing costs by shipping all those jobs overseas, where they pay as little as $1 a day for a human life so now, in order to increase their profits (because profits MUST be increased) they have now turned inward to see what they can shave off in America.



How does one decrease the cost of labor in America?

Well first, you have to bust the unions. Check. Then you have to create a pressing need for people to work – perhaps give them easy access to credit and then get them to go so deeply into debt that they will have to work until they die to pay them off. Check. It also helps if you push up the cost of living by manipulating commodity prices. Check. Then, take away people’s retirement savings. Check. Lower interest rates to make savings futile and interest income inadequate. Check. And finally, threaten to take away the 12% a year that people have been saving for retirement by labeling Social Security an “entitlement” program – as if it wasn’t money Americans worked their whole lives to save and gave to the government in good faith. Check.

As Allen Smith says:

“Ronald Reagan and Alan Greenspan pulled off one of the greatest frauds ever perpetrated against the American people in the history of this great nation, and the underlying scam is still alive and well, more than a quarter century later. It represents the very foundation upon which the economic malpractice that led the nation to the great economic collapse of 2008 was built. Essentially, Reagan switched the federal government from what he critically called, a “tax and spend” policy, to a “borrow and spend” policy, where the government continued its heavy spending, but used borrowed money instead of tax revenue to pay the bills. The results were catastrophic. Although it had taken the United States more than 200 years to accumulate the first $1 trillion of national debt, it took only five years under Reagan to add the second one trillion dollars to the debt. By the end of the 12 years of the Reagan-Bush administrations, the national debt had quadrupled to $4 trillion!“

Both Reagan and Greenspan saw big government as an evil, and they saw big business as a virtue. They both had despised the progressive policies of Roosevelt, Kennedy and Johnson, and they wanted to turn back the pages of time. They came up with the perfect strategy for the redistribution of income and wealth from the working class to the rich. If Reagan had campaigned for the presidency by promising big tax cuts for the rich and pledging to make up for the lost revenue by imposing substantial tax increases on the working class, he would probably not have been elected. But that is exactly what Reagan did, with the help of Alan Greenspan. Consider the following sequence of events:

1) President Reagan appointed Greenspan as chairman of the 1982 National Commission on Social Security Reform (aka The Greenspan Commission)

2) The Greenspan Commission recommended a major payroll tax hike to generate Social Security surpluses for the next 30 years, in order to build up a large reserve in the trust fund that could be drawn down during the years after Social Security began running deficits.

3) The 1983 Social Security amendments enacted hefty increases in the payroll tax in order to generate large future surpluses.

4) As soon as the first surpluses began to role in, in 1985, the money was put into the general revenue fund and spent on other government programs. None of the surplus was saved or invested in anything. The surplus Social Security revenue, that was paid by working Americans, was used to replace the lost revenue from Reagan’s big income tax cuts that went primarily to the rich.

5) In 1987, President Reagan nominated Greenspan as the successor to Paul Volcker as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Greenspan continued as Fed Chairman until January 31, 2006. (One can only speculate on whether the coveted Fed Chairmanship represented, at least in part, a payback for Greenspan’s role in initiating the Social Security surplus revenue.)

6) In 1990, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York, a member of the Greenspan Commission, and one of the strongest advocates the 1983 legislation, became outraged when he learned that first Reagan, and then President George H.W. Bush used the surplus Social Security revenue to pay for other government programs instead of saving and investing it for the baby boomers. Moynihan locked horns with President Bush and proposed repealing the 1983 payroll tax hike. Moynihan’s view was that if the government could not keep its hands out of the Social Security cookie jar, the cookie jar should be emptied, so there would be no surplus Social Security revenue for the government to loot. President Bush would have no part of repealing the payroll tax hike. The “read-my-lips-no-new-taxes” president was not about to give up his huge slush fund.

The practice of using every dollar of the surplus Social Security revenue for general government spending continues to this day. The 1983 payroll tax hike has generated approximately $2.5 trillion in surplus Social Security revenue which is supposed to be in the trust fund for use in paying for the retirement benefits of the baby boomers. But the trust fund is empty! It contains no real assets. As a result, the government will soon be unable to pay full benefits without a tax increase. Money can be spent or it can be saved. But you can’t do both. Absolutely none of the $2.5 trillion was saved or invested in anything.

That is how the largest theft in the history of the world was carried out.

300M people worked and saved their whole lives to set aside $2.5Tn into a retirement system that, if it were paying a fair compounding rate of 5% interest over 40 years of labor (assuming an even $62Bn a year was contributed), would be worth $8.4Tn today – enough money to give 100M workers $84,000 each in cash!

The looting of FICA hid the massive deficits of the last 30 years in the Unified Budget. Presidents and Congresses were able to reduce taxes on the wealthiest Americans without complaint from the deficit hawks, because they benefited. The money went directly from the pockets of average Americans into the pockets of the rich.



Now that it is time to repay those special bonds in the Trust Fund, we are inundated in opinion pieces in the leading newspapers and magazines complaining about Social Security and its horrible impact on the budget. Government finances have been trashed by foolish tax cuts, unpaid wars, tax loopholes for corporations and the very wealthy, the failures of economists, the greedy search for greater returns in financial markets and the collapse of moral values in giant businesses, but Social Security is supposed to be the problem that needs fixing…

Social Security is not “broken“–the money is in the Trust Fund. But the people who manage the finances of the United States don’t want to repay the bonds held by the Trust Fund. They want to default selectively against average people, their fellow citizens, who paid their taxes expecting to be protected in their retirement. Refusing to repay the $2.54 trillion dollars in bonds held by the Social Security Trust makes the US look like Greece, just another nation unable to govern itself coherently. The people who manage US finances come from the financial elites, the best that Wall Street and enormous corporations have to offer. Selective default exposes them as charlatans. The claims of the economics profession to expertise are puffery. Their theories about the benefits of tax cuts are proven false. Their mathematical proofs about free markets collapse in the real world.



So, what is this all about? It’s about forcing 5M people a year who reach the age 65 to remain in the work-force. The top 0.01% have already taken your money, they have already put you in debt, they have already bankrupted the government as well so it has no choice but to do their bidding. Now the top 0.01% want to make even MORE profits by paying American workers even LESS money. If they raise the retirement age to 70 to “balance” Social Security – that will guarantee that another 25M people remain in the workforce (less the ones that drop dead on the job – saving the bother of paying them severance).

What’s next? Is it fair to say that children can’t work in a struggling family business? Isn’t it to everybody’s benefit that kids should be allowed to help out at the family store? That will be the next step towards turning America into a 3rd World country. The seemingly innocent concept of “letting” kids work will deprive another 5M people of paying jobs – throwing them out into the labor force as well and driving labor costs down even further.

There’s an expression that goes “give them an inch and they’ll take a yard.” The top 0.01% of this country have taken their inches and they are foreclosing on the yards and they will come for the rest of your stuff next. If you think you are “safe” from the looting of America, it is only because they haven’t gotten around to you yet. As I explained in “America is 234 Years Old Today – Is It Finished?” – the game is rigged very much like a poker tournament. The people at the top table don’t care how well you do wiping out your fellow players at the lower tables, they know they will get you eventually and your efforts to scoop up a pile of cash for yourself simply makes their job easier when they are ready to take it from you.



The average American is $634,000 in debt thanks to the efforts that Reagan and Greenspan put in motion 30 years ago and the richer you are, the more of that money is going to come out of your hide eventually and the more you lobby to make sure that the “rich” are not taxed unfairly, the less fair it will be to you because, no matter how rich you THINK you are, unless your income is measured in MILLIONS PER MONTH, you aren’t even close to the top 30,000.

No progressive tax? That means that people and corporations who make $1M PER DAY should pay no more tax than a person making $1M per year, right? Well that means that the $2.5M debt that your family of four owes will be paid by you over 2.5 years of labor while the $2.5M owed by your Billionaire competitor will be paid over a long weekend, after which he can turn his attention back to crushing your business by creating cheaper goods – maintaining profit margins by driving down local labor costs and outsourcing the rest.

It’s a new world, America, and you’d better get used to it – we were sold down the river on a slow boat to China long ago and we’re only just beginning to feel the first effects of waves that wash back to our own shores. The people who own the media don’t want CHANGE. That’s why you never hear this stuff in the MSM – things are going exactly according to plan and the old money crowd is playing a long, patient game and they already have most of the chips – the last thing they want is people questioning the system…

http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/07/17/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Beware the Technical Trap:




Commentary: Investors shouldn't be fooled by another breakout...

By Tomi Kilgore - July 15, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Being fooled twice is enough to shame any investor, but how about three, or even four times?

The current rally marks the fourth time since early May that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA 10,287, -80.22, -0.77%) has bounced more than 5%. Previous bounces have taken the Dow above key resistance levels, and yet subsequent declines have resulted in even lower lows. Essentially, the recent pattern surrounding key technical breakdowns and breakouts suggests the Dow is nearing yet another turning point.

It is easy for bulls to fall into another technical trap, since the Dow has climbed above the 50-day simple moving average, which has acted as resistance since the Dow first fell below it in early May, and is now peeking above a downward sloping line that started at the April 26 high and connects the June 21 high. But rather than embolden bulls, the apparent breakout should actually make them skeptical, especially following a six-session rally.

There have been several false breakdowns and breakouts since the correction started in late April.

The first bounce started after the Dow fell below the 200-day moving average, seen by many as a bull vs. bear market divider, for the first time in 10 months; that bounce ended the day after the Dow closed above the 50-day moving average; the next decline ended after the Dow fell below key support at the February low; another rally ended a few sessions after the Dow had broken above the 200-day moving average and traded above the 50-day in intraday trading.

The Dow started the latest rally right after hitting a new low for the year. The break below the June 8 low of 9,757 confirmed a head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a widely recognized longer-term bearish reversal pattern.

Basically, those reacting to technical breakdowns and breakouts have been fooled many times. And keep in mind that the Dow's last six-session winning streak ended on April 26, the day before the market correction began.

The current rally has extended in anticipation of a strong second-quarter earnings reporting season, or one that isn't as bad as the market seemed to be expecting earlier this month, rather than anything concrete. Economic data out of the U.S. and abroad, as well as the downgrade of Portugal's debt by Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday, indicate some of the conditions that started the market's correction--a slowing global economy and sovereign debt risk--still exist.

Even if strong second-quarter results become a reality, investors have already acted on it. The Dow faces tough resistance at the 10,400 to 10,450 level, which encompasses the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement of the fall from the April 26 high of 11,258 to the July 5 low of 9,614. The June 21 high of 10,594 shouldn't give way without some good, concrete news on the economy. The Dow was up 175 points at 10,391 in afternoon trading.

For investors to feel safe betting on a breakout, the Dow needs to start the next bounce before it hits a new low. There should be some support at the 9,950 to 10,000 level, while drop below 9,757 would indicate another new low was coming. At least investors can then start expecting another false breakdown, and another 5%+ bounce.

Tomi Kilgore writes Taking Stock, a global column that gives insightful analysis about equity-related topics around the world. This column originally appeared on Dow Jones Newswires.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-by-another-breakout-2010-07-15?siteid=e2eyahoo

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

U.S. Stripped of AAA Credit Rating!...By China?...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-stripped-aaa-credit-ratingby-china

By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

Despite repeated warnings going back several years from Moody's, S&P et al that the U.S. could lose its top credit rating with ongoing fiscal deficits and heavy debts, the platinum-plated AAA rating of the United States seems all untouchable.

The top notch rating certainly has helped with continuing debt financing and bolstered the confidence of some government officials. Secretary Geithner, for example, said in a February interview that the U.S. government "will never" lose its credit rating, despite big budget deficits and a newly raised debt ceiling of $14.3 trillion.

Along came a Beijing-based rating agency--Dagong International Credit Rating Co. Its first order of business is to downgrade sovereign debt ratings on some major Western nations, while slamming its Western counterparts.

"The reason for the global financial crisis and debt crisis in Europe is that the current international credit rating system does not correctly reveal the debtor's repayment ability."

Dubbed as the world’s first “non-Western” sovereign credit rating agency, in its debut international report, Dagone (means Big Justice in Chinese) downshifted the US to AA with a negative outlook, while UK and France were given AA-; Belgium, Spain, Italy with A-.

It also rates debt risk of the US above China, and listed the US as one of the countries with exposure to increasing borrowing costs and default risks.

In June, the total US debt topped $13 trillion for the first time in history. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that the U.S. deficit will stand at 64% of GDP this year, rising to just over 96% by 2020.

Concerned that high unemployment may force a double dip recession, the IMF just last week urged the United States to rein in its budget deficit.

Some see Dagong’s report as mere political propaganda by Beijing to counter the repeated pressure by the U.S. on its yuan policy. Nevertheless, the national debt by country chart (below) should say that Dagong's assessment is not entirely baseless, regardless of any possible hidden agenda.


Graph source: visualeconomics.com

Meanwhile, the flock to the U.S. treasury in recent months due to the European debt crisis--temporary in nature—is by no means a testament to America’s credit worthiness.

This downgrade, although might not carry much weight and influence on the bond market, does give a sobering glimpse into the unthinkable……, well, at least to Geithner.